Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are the best running backs in this draft. They’ll be selected in the first round – maybe even the first half of the first round. That’s what everyone seems to agree on. But is that actually true? History indicates that a few years down the road, probably neither Gurley nor Gordon will be the best of the 2015 rookie runners.

I did this yesterday with the wide receivers. This is the running backs version. You take the first 10 selected, then using hindsight identify the guy who winded up having the best career. I’ve got those guys in bold. The 2nd-best guys, I’ve flagged them with a black dot.

I don’t want to bore you by listing 20-25 running backs each year, so I’m listing just the first 10 for each draft. If there was somebody else who was significant, I toss him on at the bottom for 2001, for example, Rudi Johnson was the 11th running back chosen, so I put him at the bottom with an 11 in front of his name. And Dominic Rhodes signed with the Colts (and later had a 1,000-yard season), so I’ve got him there also.

Anyway, results as similar to what we saw with wide receivers. Heading into the draft, it’s easy to operate under the assumption that Gurley and Gordon will be the best, but the field is a difficult opponent to overcome. In the last 15 drafts, only three times have the best two running backs also been the first two chosen.

A year-by-year look at running backs …

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2000
PkPlayer
5• Jamal Lewis
7Thomas Jones
11Ron Dayne
19Shaun Alexander
31Trung Canidate
63Travis Prentice
76J.R. Redmond
81Rueben Droughns
88Doug Chapman
96Terrelle Smith

Some will call Lewis the best running back of this draft. He won a Super Bowl had a 2,000-yard season. But I think Alexander was a little better – more elusive. Jones was a slow starter; didn’t become a good player until later in his career. Dayne was supposed to be really good but wasn’t.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2001
PkPlayer
5LaDainian Tomlinson
23• Deuce McAllister
27Michael Bennett
38Anthony Thomas
49LaMont Jordan
58Travis Henry
65James Jackson
80Kevan Barlow
82Heath Evans
85Travis Minor
100(11) Rudi Johnson
FA(undrafted) Dominic Rhodes

Here’s one where the scouts got it right. Tomlinson definitely the best, and McAllister was No. 2.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2002
PkPlayer
16William Green
18T.J. Duckett
34DeShaun Foster
51Clinton Portis
54Maurice Morris
56Ladell Betts
84Lamar Gordon
91• Brian Westbrook
99Jonathan Wells
107Omar Easy
207(21) Chester Taylor

Portis goes in the late in the second round and was way better than the three guys selected before him. Westbrook, selected late in the third round, was other significant back in this group. William Green (from Boston College) was most everyone’s top running back prospect but wasn’t considered an elite top-10 type guy.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2003
PkPlayer
23• Willis McGahee
27Larry Johnson
77Musa Smith
85B.J. Askew
93Chris Brown
96Justin Fargas
99Artose Pinner
101Domanick Davis
105Onterrio Smith
108Quentin Griffin

Bills went with McGahee late in the first round, even though they knew who probably wouldn’t play as a rookie because of a Fiesta Bowl knee injury. He had a solid pro career, with 1,000-yard seasons for multiple teams, but was never special. But at least the first two running backs selected in this year were also the best.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2004
PkPlayer
24Steven Jackson
26Chris Perry
30Kevin Jones
41Tatum Bell
43Julius Jones
55Greg Jones
119Mewelde Moore
128Cedric Cobbs
154• Michael Turner
156Mike Karney
FA(undrafted) Willie Parker

Two great runners in this draft, and they both finished their careers plodding for minimal yardages as 30-somethings in Atlanta. Parker wasn’t drafted at all and had some long gainers for the Steelers. He was the No. 3 back in this year.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2005
PkPlayer
2Ronnie Brown
4Cedric Benson
5Cadillac Williams
44J.J. Arrington
54Eric Shelton
65Frank Gore
73Vernand Morency
77Ryan Moats
101Maurice Clarett
109Marion Barber
130• (15) Darren Sproles
FA(undrafted) Ryan Grant

There was three-back debate in the top 5 this year, with Benson and the two Auburn backs. The first pick of the third round, Gore, ended up being a lot better than any of them. Sproles was the 15th running back chosen and is still rocking as a third-down back.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2006
PkPlayer
2Reggie Bush
21Laurence Maroney
27• DeAngelo Williams
30Joseph Addai
45LenDale White
60Maurice Jones-Drew
74Brian Calhoun
79Jerious Norwood
117Leon Washington
132P.J. Daniels
FA(undrafted) Fred Jackson

Bush seemed to be an elite, Barry Sanders type guy, but it just never happened. Then Bill Belichick tried to squeeze in Maroney as the 2nd back. DeAngelo Williams was better than both of those guys, and MJD was probably the best of the class. Fred Jackson wasn’t even drafted and has had a nice career.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2007
PkPlayer
7Adrian Peterson
12• Marshawn Lynch
49Kenny Irons
50Chris Henry
63Brandon Jackson
71Lorenzo Booker
90Tony Hunt
93Garrett Wolfe
100Michael Bush
107Antonio Pittman
250(18) Ahmad Bradshaw
FA(undrafted) Pierre Thomas

Scouts got it right this year. Peterson was a dominate back from Day One. Lynch has also been awesome. Some nice gems late, with Bradshaw (who had some off-field stuff at Marshall) and Pierre Thomas, who wasn’t even drafted.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2008
PkPlayer
4Darren McFadden
13Jonathan Stewart
22Felix Jones
23Rashard Mendenhall
24• Chris Johnson
44• Matt Forte
55Ray Rice
64Kevin Smith
69Jacob Hester
73Jamaal Charles
227(24) Peyton Hillis
233(25) Justin Forsett
FA(undrafted) BenJarvus Green-Ellis

McFadden was supposed to be the superstar in this group, and he’s not even in the top 5. I’ll go with Charles as the best of the group, and I’m letting Chris Johnson and Forte shared the No. 2 spot. Ray Rice was also really good for a while. The 25th running back chosen, Forsett, ran for 1,266 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2009
PkPlayer
12Knowshon Moreno
27Donald Brown
31Beanie Wells
53• LeSean McCoy
65Shonn Greene
74Glen Coffee
111Mike Goodson
129Andre Brown
134Gartrell Johnson
169Frank Summers
FA(undrafted) Arian Foster

Everyone agreed that Moreno was the best running back in this group. Probably more coveted than all of the other rookies combined. But Foster (not even drafted) and McCoy have been way better.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2010
PkPlayer
9C.J. Spiller
12Ryan Mathews
30Jahvid Best
51Toby Gerhart
58Ben Tate
59Montario Hardesty
112Joe McKnight
139John Conner
173Anthony Dixon
180Deji Karim
FA• (undrafted) Joique Bell
FA• (undrafted) LeGarrette Blount

I wasn’t sure who to make the No. 1 back in this class. I went with Mathews. Relative to where they were selected (not even drafted), Joique Bell and LeGarrette Blount have been way better. I had them share the No. 2.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2011
PkPlayer
28• Mark Ingram
38Ryan Williams
56Shane Vereen
57Mikel Leshoure
62Daniel Thomas
71DeMarco Murray
73Stevan Ridley
96Alex Green
105Roy Helu
115Kendall Hunter

I had Ingram the No. 2 back in this group, but also could have gone with Vereen or Ridley. Ingram has been a disappointment as a first-round pick (but picked up his game some last year).

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2012
PkPlayer
3Trent Richardson
31Doug Martin
32David Wilson
50Isaiah Pead
61LaMichael James
67Ronnie Hillman
84Bernard Pierce
97• Lamar Miller
106Robert Turbin
159Chris Rainey
173(12) Alfred Morris
191(14) Dan Herron

The thinking was that Richardson would be an Adrian Peterson type guy. Hasn’t happened. Alfred Morris has been the best running back in this class, and nobody was thinking about him until he started blowing through holes in the preseason games that year.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2013
PkPlayer
37Giovani Bernard
48LeVeon Bell
58Montee Ball
61• Eddie Lacy
62Christine Michael
96Knile Davis
125Johnathan Franklin
131Marcus Lattimore
135Denard Robinson
140Stepfan Taylor
181(15) Latavius Murray
187(17) Andre Ellington
FA(undrafted) C.J. Anderson

Three of the first four running backs have been pretty good. Bell and Lacy seem to be the best.

TOP 10 RUNNING BACKS IN 2014
PkPlayer
54Bishop Sankey
55Jeremy Hill
57Carlos Hyde
69Charles Sims
75• Tre Mason
94Terrance West
96Jerick McKinnon
97Dri Archer
103Devonta Freeman
113Andre Williams
FA(undrafted) Isaiah Crowell

Sankey was the first running back chosen. If teams could re-draft, he wouldn’t be one of the first half dozen. Hill is definitely No. 1. Mason or Hyde would be the next chosen. The Browns have a good pair, with West (third round) and Crowell (not even drafted).

So this is the same as the wide receivers. We all tend to salivate over Gurley and Gordon, and maybe those guys will be great. History suggests it’s almost a lead-pipe lock that some other rookie will be better than at least one of those guys.