One other thought on the quarterbacks, as they get ready to start the draft later today. There’s a difference between being selected early in the first round, and being selected just in the first round. A big difference.
In this century, 16 quarterbacks have been selected in the top 4 overall. Of that group, half have had really good careers. Of the remaining eight, I’m putting the “maybe” sticker on half of them. Alex Smith has been good at times, but he took a while to get going and doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a difference maker kind of guy. He’s not a bust, but he’s not really a great pick either. We’re still in wait-and-see on Bortles. And being the optimistic guy that I am, I’m going to put Bradford and RG3 in that same wait-and-see group.
| QUARTERBACKS IN TOP 4 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Result | Player |
| 2001 | 1 | hit | Michael Vick |
| 2002 | 1 | miss | David Carr |
| 2002 | 3 | miss | Joey Harrington |
| 2003 | 1 | hit | Carson Palmer |
| 2004 | 1 | hit | Eli Manning |
| 2004 | 4 | hit | Philip Rivers |
| 2005 | 1 | maybe | Alex Smith |
| 2006 | 3 | miss | Vince Young |
| 2007 | 1 | miss | JaMarcus Russell |
| 2008 | 3 | hit | Matt Ryan |
| 2009 | 1 | hit | Matthew Stafford |
| 2010 | 1 | maybe | Sam Bradford |
| 2011 | 1 | hit | Cam Newton |
| 2012 | 1 | hit | Andrew Luck |
| 2012 | 2 | maybe | Robert Griffin III |
| 2014 | 3 | maybe | Blake Bortles |
When you start getting later in the first round, the success rate really drops. There have been 24 other first-round quarterbacks, and only four of those guys have hit it big. Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Flacco have all won Super Bowls. I’m going to put Jay Cutler in that group as well. Everybody hates him, but he’s won some games and had some success.
Some others are in the tweener class. Tannehill and Bridgewater might be OK. I put Chad Pennington in there as well. Limited physical tooks (his arm wasn’t nearly strong enough) but he was a smart guy who could run an offense; he had some success.
Anyway, for the later group of quarterbacks, about 80 percent of the time those quarterbacks are failing.
| OTHER QUARTERBACKS IN FIRST ROUND | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Result | Player |
| 2000 | 18 | maybe | Chad Pennington |
| 2002 | 32 | miss | Patrick Ramsey |
| 2003 | 7 | miss | Byron Leftwich |
| 2003 | 19 | miss | Kyle Boller |
| 2003 | 22 | miss | Rex Grossman |
| 2004 | 11 | hit | Ben Roethlisberger |
| 2004 | 22 | miss | J.P. Losman |
| 2005 | 24 | hit | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2005 | 25 | miss | Jason Campbell |
| 2006 | 10 | miss | Matt Leinart |
| 2006 | 11 | hit | Jay Cutler |
| 2007 | 22 | miss | Brady Quinn |
| 2008 | 18 | hit | Joe Flacco |
| 2009 | 5 | miss | Mark Sanchez |
| 2009 | 17 | miss | Josh Freeman |
| 2010 | 25 | miss | Tim Tebow |
| 2011 | 8 | miss | Jake Locker |
| 2011 | 10 | miss | Blaine Gabbert |
| 2011 | 12 | miss | Christian Ponder |
| 2012 | 8 | maybe | Ryan Tannehill |
| 2012 | 22 | miss | Brandon Weeden |
| 2013 | 16 | miss | EJ Manuel |
| 2014 | 22 | miss | Johnny Manziel |
| 2014 | 32 | maybe | Teddy Bridgewater |
For this year, we’ve got two big ones, and they’ll both go in the top 4, I think. I believe they’ll be the first two picks.
With Jameis Winston, I don’t worry much about the off-field stuff. They’ve looked into that, and if they thought it was a problem, they wouldn’t be selecting him that high. Guys mature as they get older.
To me, the worry about Winston is Jimbo Fisher. Fisher has shown that he has some ability to coach guys up and make them look good in college. He’s been able to utilize quarterbacks properly and make them look like elite NFL quarterbacks. JaMarcus Russell, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel were all Fisher guys. If you look at Manuel’s numbers his final year at Florida State, they’re better than what Winston did last year. But whatever. I like the way Winston drops back and makes decisive downfield throws. I think he’ll be good.
With Mariota, I worry about the conversion from the college offense. The physical ability is there (he’s a much better athlete than Winston) but he must be taught everything. Oregon runs that hurryup offense, so he hasn’t had to engage in the mental chessmatches with defenses. That’s huge. And when guys are runners, it’s harder for them to develop the skill of working through progressions and operating the pocket. For years they’ve relied on taking off and running, so that’s what they do. Michael Vick and Cam Newton were never good passers in the red zone. Johnny Manziel and RG3 come out unorthodox offenses, and they’ve struggled. So I worry a lot more about Mariota.
—Ian Allan