What makes a good (or bad) NFL quarterback? If the answers were easy, NFL teams wouldn't constantly make mistakes at the top of the draft. Sometimes you can blame the system, sometimes the NFL team, sometimes the coaching the player gets, sometimes the talent around them. There are no certainties.
One useful statistic, it seems, is completion percentage in the final year of college. Many quarterbacks who display lesser accuracy in college never get that corrected in the NFL. There are exceptions (Matt Ryan, for example, was under 60 percent completions at Boston College), but a whole lot of those guys go bust in the NFL.
The table below shows college quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last 20 years, sorted by completion percentage their final year of college. There have certainly been some busts near the top of that list, but the quarterbacks at the bottom have almost entirely flopped, and quickly.
The two quarterbacks who will be drafted in the first round this Thursday, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, both rank favorably in this area.
COMPLETION %, FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 1994-2015 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Att | Com | Pct | P Yds |
1999 | 11 | Daunte Culpepper | 402 | 296 | 73.6 | 3690 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | 564 | 408 | 72.3 | 4727 |
1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | 553 | 400 | 72.3 | 4275 |
2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | 483 | 348 | 72.0 | 4491 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | 406 | 291 | 71.7 | 4293 |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | 404 | 288 | 71.3 | 3517 |
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | 427 | 303 | 71.0 | 3970 |
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | 429 | 300 | 69.9 | 4114 |
2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | 270 | 188 | 69.6 | 2700 |
2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | 495 | 342 | 69.1 | 4486 |
2015 | ? | Marcus Mariota | 445 | 304 | 68.3 | 4454 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | 387 | 263 | 68.0 | 3397 |
2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | 342 | 232 | 67.8 | 3129 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | 314 | 213 | 67.8 | 2895 |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | 382 | 259 | 67.8 | 3581 |
2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | 317 | 214 | 67.5 | 2952 |
2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington | 433 | 292 | 67.4 | 4006 |
2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | 491 | 331 | 67.4 | 4268 |
1995 | 5 | Kerry Collins | 264 | 176 | 66.7 | 2679 |
2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | 316 | 209 | 66.1 | 2566 |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | 280 | 185 | 66.1 | 2854 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | 366 | 241 | 65.8 | 3207 |
2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | 431 | 283 | 65.7 | 3815 |
2015 | ? | Jameis Winston | 467 | 305 | 65.3 | 3907 |
2006 | 3 | Vince Young | 325 | 212 | 65.2 | 3036 |
2002 | 1 | David Carr | 476 | 308 | 64.7 | 4299 |
1994 | 3 | Heath Shuler | 285 | 184 | 64.6 | 2354 |
1994 | 6 | Trent Dilfer | 400 | 255 | 63.8 | 3799 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | 521 | 331 | 63.5 | 4263 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | 475 | 301 | 63.4 | 3186 |
2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | 489 | 309 | 63.2 | 3942 |
1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | 251 | 157 | 62.5 | 2134 |
2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | 441 | 275 | 62.4 | 3600 |
2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | 467 | 289 | 61.9 | 3426 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | 531 | 327 | 61.6 | 3744 |
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | 299 | 184 | 61.5 | 2044 |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | 383 | 235 | 61.4 | 3459 |
1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | 477 | 287 | 60.2 | 3819 |
2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | 422 | 251 | 59.5 | 3077 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | 654 | 388 | 59.3 | 4507 |
2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | 462 | 273 | 59.1 | 3073 |
1999 | 3 | Akili Smith | 325 | 191 | 58.8 | 3307 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | 382 | 224 | 58.6 | 2945 |
1999 | 12 | Cade McNown | 323 | 188 | 58.2 | 3130 |
2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | 322 | 186 | 57.8 | 2415 |
1995 | 3 | Steve McNair | 530 | 304 | 57.4 | 4863 |
2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman | 503 | 287 | 57.1 | 3402 |
2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | 449 | 256 | 57.0 | 2935 |
1997 | 26 | Jim Druckenmiller | 250 | 142 | 56.8 | 2070 |
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | 69 | 39 | 56.5 | 562 |
1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | 375 | 210 | 56.0 | 3637 |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | 332 | 184 | 55.4 | 2265 |
2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | 161 | 87 | 54.0 | 1234 |
2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller | 421 | 225 | 53.4 | 2815 |
--Andy Richardson