Yesterday we were mulling what kind of impact it might have if the league were to move 2-point conversion attempts to the 1. It was my opinion that many teams would then chose to go for 2 after the vast majority of touchdowns.
Somebody wanted to see numbers for the 2. The success rate there isn’t nearly as good. You drop to below 50 percent, so I think we’d still see every team on almost every touchdown kick the extra point, even with it being 13 yards more difficult (and the success rate probably dropping to about 95-96 percent).
For plays from the 2-yard line, I think the success rate would be about 50 percent, maybe a little lower.
For 2014, there were 99 of these plays. That includes 2-point conversions, and it includes all plays from the 2-yard line where it was third or fourth and goal – where the team pretty much needed to score. I didn’t include first- or second-round plays in this study. On those, the team had the luxury of advancing the ball to the 1 and feeling it was a success, or throwing the ball away to live for another down.
Anyway, teams were successful on 44 of these 99 plays.
Mostly passes. They were 32-72 through the air, versus only 12-27 on the ground.
Note that there is a slight statistical variance on these plays. Via stat-keeping guidelines, once the nose of the football crosses the 3-yard line, you are on the 2, for recording-keeping purposes. The back of the football could be on the 3-yard line, and that’s then recorded as a 2-yard play. So some of these attempts from the 2 were actually closer to the 3, and you’re looking at almost a 50-percent difference.
But it doesn’t matter too much. Success rates are pretty conclusive. If the owners, as I expect, move the PAT back to the 15 but leave the 2-point conversion tries at the 2-yard line, I think you’ll see teams continuing to chip in those 1-point PATs.
| MONEY PLAYS FROM 2-YARD LINE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | Pass | Total |
| Arizona | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3-6 |
| Atlanta | 0-1 | 2-5 | 2-6 |
| Baltimore | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3-7 |
| Buffalo | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Carolina | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Chicago | 1-1 | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Cincinnati | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Cleveland | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Dallas | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Denver | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Detroit | 0-1 | 1-4 | 1-5 |
| Green Bay | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Houston | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Indianapolis | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Jacksonville | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Kansas City | 0-1 | 2-5 | 2-6 |
| Miami | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Minnesota | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4-6 |
| New England | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| New Orleans | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| NY Giants | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| NY Jets | 0-1 | 1-4 | 1-5 |
| Oakland | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Philadelphia | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| San Diego | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| San Francisco | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Seattle | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| St. Louis | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tennessee | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Washington | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
—Ian Allan