If you’re looking for a breakout tight end, your odds get a lot better if you look at second-year guys, rather than rookies. That is, it’s far more likely that Eric Ebron, Jace Amaro or Austin Seferian-Jenkins will turn into a viable fantasy player this year, rather than Maxx Williams or any of the other rookie tight ends.
In this century, 39 tight ends have been selected in either the first or second year. (That is, in the 2000-2013 seasons – guys who have played two years). Of those 39, they’ve caught 371 more passes and 62 more touchdowns in their second year.
It’s a complicated position. Not realistic to expect a rookie to come in and crush it. Those guys are rare.
When looking for a breakout tight end, forget the rookies and instead focus on those second-year guys, even though they were all disappointments last year.
On my board, I have Seferian-Jenkins, Ebron and Amaro all ranked ahead of all of the 2015 rookies. (Troy Niklas probably will play more, but he’s more of a blocker-type guy.)
Here's the rundown of what we've seen since 2000. Guys selected in first or second round only. If a player put up better numbers in his first year, I've got him in bold (he's an exception to the expectation).
TIGHT ENDS: SECOND-YEAR LEAP | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rookie | Year 2 |
2000 | Bubba Franks | 34-363-1 | 36-322-9 |
2000 | Anthony Becht | 16-144-2 | 36-321-5 |
2001 | Todd Heap | 16-206-1 | 68-836-6 |
2001 | Alge Crumpler | 25-330-3 | 36-455-5 |
2002 | Daniel Graham | 15-150-1 | 38-409-4 |
2002 | Doug Jolley | 32-409-2 | 31-250-1 |
2002 | Jeremy Shockey | 74-894-2 | 48-535-2 |
2002 | Jerramy Stevens | 26-252-3 | 6-72-0 |
2003 | Dallas Clark | 29-340-1 | 25-423-5 |
2003 | L.J. Smith | 27-321-1 | 34-377-5 |
2003 | Teyo Johnson | 14-128-1 | 9-131-2 |
2003 | Bennie Joppru | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
2004 | Benjamin Watson | 2-16-0 | 29-441-4 |
2004 | Ben Troupe | 33-329-1 | 55-530-4 |
2004 | Kris Wilson | 0-0-0 | 3-33-0 |
2004 | Kellen Winslow | 5-50-0 | 0-0-0 |
2005 | Heath Miller | 39-459-6 | 34-393-5 |
2006 | Marcedes Lewis | 13-126-1 | 37-391-2 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18-286-4 | 49-549-5 |
2006 | Vernon Davis | 20-265-3 | 52-509-4 |
2006 | Anthony Fasano | 14-126-0 | 14-143-1 |
2006 | Joe Klopfenstein | 20-226-1 | 2-37-1 |
2007 | Greg Olsen | 39-391-2 | 54-574-5 |
2007 | Zach Miller | 44-444-3 | 56-778-1 |
2008 | Fred Davis | 3-27-0 | 48-509-6 |
2008 | John Carlson | 55-627-5 | 51-574-7 |
2008 | Dustin Keller | 48-535-3 | 45-522-2 |
2008 | Martellus Bennett | 20-283-4 | 15-159-0 |
2009 | Brandon Pettigrew | 30-346-2 | 71-722-4 |
2009 | Richard Quinn | 0-0-0 | 1-9-0 |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 42-546-10 | 90-1327-17 |
2010 | Jermaine Gresham | 52-471-4 | 56-596-6 |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph | 26-249-3 | 53-493-9 |
2011 | Lance Kendricks | 28-352-0 | 42-519-4 |
2012 | Coby Fleener | 26-281-2 | 52-608-4 |
2013 | Zach Ertz | 36-469-4 | 58-702-3 |
2013 | Gavin Escobar | 9-134-2 | 9-105-4 |
2013 | Vance McDonald | 8-119-0 | 2-30-0 |
2013 | Tyler Eifert | 39-445-2 | 3-37-0 |
2014 | Eric Ebron | 25-248-1 | ?-?-? |
2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 21-221-2 | ?-?-? |
2014 | Jace Amaro | 38-345-2 | ?-?-? |
2014 | Troy Niklas | 3-38-0 | ?-?-? |
—Ian Allan