If you’re looking for a breakout tight end, your odds get a lot better if you look at second-year guys, rather than rookies. That is, it’s far more likely that Eric Ebron, Jace Amaro or Austin Seferian-Jenkins will turn into a viable fantasy player this year, rather than Maxx Williams or any of the other rookie tight ends.

In this century, 39 tight ends have been selected in either the first or second year. (That is, in the 2000-2013 seasons – guys who have played two years). Of those 39, they’ve caught 371 more passes and 62 more touchdowns in their second year.

It’s a complicated position. Not realistic to expect a rookie to come in and crush it. Those guys are rare.

When looking for a breakout tight end, forget the rookies and instead focus on those second-year guys, even though they were all disappointments last year.

On my board, I have Seferian-Jenkins, Ebron and Amaro all ranked ahead of all of the 2015 rookies. (Troy Niklas probably will play more, but he’s more of a blocker-type guy.)

Here's the rundown of what we've seen since 2000. Guys selected in first or second round only. If a player put up better numbers in his first year, I've got him in bold (he's an exception to the expectation).

TIGHT ENDS: SECOND-YEAR LEAP
YearPlayerRookieYear 2
2000Bubba Franks34-363-136-322-9
2000Anthony Becht16-144-236-321-5
2001Todd Heap16-206-168-836-6
2001Alge Crumpler25-330-336-455-5
2002Daniel Graham15-150-138-409-4
2002Doug Jolley32-409-231-250-1
2002Jeremy Shockey74-894-248-535-2
2002Jerramy Stevens26-252-36-72-0
2003Dallas Clark29-340-125-423-5
2003L.J. Smith 27-321-134-377-5
2003Teyo Johnson 14-128-19-131-2
2003Bennie Joppru 0-0-00-0-0
2004Benjamin Watson2-16-029-441-4
2004Ben Troupe33-329-155-530-4
2004Kris Wilson0-0-03-33-0
2004Kellen Winslow5-50-00-0-0
2005Heath Miller39-459-634-393-5
2006Marcedes Lewis13-126-137-391-2
2006Tony Scheffler18-286-449-549-5
2006Vernon Davis20-265-352-509-4
2006Anthony Fasano14-126-014-143-1
2006Joe Klopfenstein20-226-12-37-1
2007Greg Olsen39-391-254-574-5
2007Zach Miller44-444-356-778-1
2008Fred Davis3-27-048-509-6
2008John Carlson55-627-551-574-7
2008Dustin Keller48-535-345-522-2
2008Martellus Bennett20-283-415-159-0
2009Brandon Pettigrew30-346-271-722-4
2009Richard Quinn0-0-01-9-0
2010Rob Gronkowski42-546-1090-1327-17
2010Jermaine Gresham52-471-456-596-6
2011Kyle Rudolph26-249-353-493-9
2011Lance Kendricks28-352-042-519-4
2012Coby Fleener26-281-252-608-4
2013Zach Ertz36-469-458-702-3
2013Gavin Escobar9-134-29-105-4
2013Vance McDonald8-119-02-30-0
2013Tyler Eifert39-445-23-37-0
2014Eric Ebron25-248-1?-?-?
2014Austin Seferian-Jenkins21-221-2?-?-?
2014Jace Amaro38-345-2?-?-?
2014Troy Niklas3-38-0?-?-?

—Ian Allan