Do we all make too much of 40 times? It’s nice if a guy runs a 4.4, and it’s worrying if he runs a 4.6, but in a lot of cases it doesn’t ultimately seem to matter. Jerry Rice, most famously, ran a 4.6 back in the ‘80s.
Jeremy Hill ran a 4.66 a year ago. That was troubling – so slow you wonder if he can even play pro football. But he had 85- and 60-yard touchdowns as a rookie with the Bengals.
Antonio Brown ran a 4.57 back in 2010, helping to push him down to the sixth round, but when he’s on the field he doesn’t look slow.
Ultimately, there’s not a huge difference between these teams. When a 4.5 player runs 40 yards, he’s less than a yard ahead of a 4.6 guy running with him, and he’s just less than a yard behind a 4.4 player.
But there are probably more 20-yard races. When a 4.5 guy runs 20 yards, he’s less than a half yard behind a 4.4, and he’s less than a half yard ahead of a 4.6.
Harder to measure (but more important) is brain speed. When a player recognizes a split second earlier that he needs to break on a ball or turn and backpeddle, that’s more valuable than a 10th of a second on a 40 times. But decision-making speed is harder to quantify. That’s where you need somebody watching game film – and it needs to be somebody who knows what to watch for.
Ultimately you want both. If you can find somebody who runs a 4.4 and that player also gives himself a head start by making good, quick decisions, those are the guys who have the best chance of success.
—Ian Allan