Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Mulling keeper questions. The value of double quarterbacks. Why Melvin Gordon can break the Wisconsin running back curse. And more.
Question 1
Looking for some early "keeper" advice. I need to decide four franchise guys. I have three guys I plan to keep - Lacy, AJ Green and Antonio Brown. The fourth is probably Carlos Hyde now that Gore is gone. Other options would be Forsett, Jordan Matthews, Spiller, Ridley or Rivers. Forsett was great for me last year but I worry about age and I like Hyde's upside if Bush and Hunter don't pillage his stats too much. It's a pretty standard yardage/scoring league but QBs get 6 pts per TD. Thoughts?
Chris TUTEN (Carmel, IN)
Agree that Lacy, Green and Brown can be put down in ink. For the fourth spot, Hyde makes sense in that he could be a solid starting running back. Always nice to get those when you have the chance. But Hyde ain’t no sure thing. If he was great, he would have played a lot more last year. And that’s a lousy team he’s playing for (I expect San Francisco will finish last in the NFC West). So how about instead some consideration for Philip Rivers? You said 6 points for touchdown passes, and that makes a big difference. You must have a good quarterback in that kind of format, and Rivers is a guy who’ll throw about 30 – a top-10 quarterback in that format. I’ve got him higher than Romo, Stafford and Wilson in that format. In that format, Rivers is the No. 36 player overall on my board, which is higher than any of the other guys you mention. So if we’re submitting keepers lists today, Rivers is the guy I would keep (then I’d look to bolster that position with another quarterback in the draft – either Flacco for 2015 or maybe Winston if he looks pretty good in the preseason, thinking he’d be kept every year going forward). Forsett, with age and different offense, isn’t even in the mix at all. Ridley isn’t a consideration at all. Spiller should catch a ton of balls in New Orleans, but he’d be a keeper candidate only if it were PPR scoring. With Matthews, I think you’d be getting the 20th-to-40th best receiver, so he’s not really in the mix either.
Question 2
Wisconsin has a terrible track record for running backs lately. Is Melvin Gordon going to be the exception?
Mike McGraw (N Chelmsford, MA)
Well, the Giants drafted a fat guy 15 years ago who didn’t do much. Ron Dayne. And the Broncos used a late second-round pick on slow guy who thus far has struggled. Montee Ball. The Vikings drafted Michael Bennett in the first round 14 years ago; he had a couple of good seasons but wasn’t a better-the-tackles guy. The Lions missed in the third round on Brian Calhoun in 2006. What does any of this have anything to do with Melvin Gordon? He ran for over 500 more yards than any of those guys in his final college season, with at least 10 more touchdowns than any of those guys. Other than Bennett (who was a track guy) Gordon is a lot faster and a lot better than any of those guys. Not selecting him because of what happened with Dayne and Ball makes about as much sense of staying away from Todd Gurley because Tim Worley, Musa Smith and Olandis Gary played at Georgia and weren’t great pros.
Question 3
Have you ever done a study on wide receivers playing with rookie QBs? I ask because I'm seeing Mike Evans ranked as a top-10 receiver in a lot of places, ahead of guys like Matthews and Benjamin. But despite the superior rookie numbers, Evans makes me more nervous than those other guys because of the rookie QB factor. I know people will say he produced with crappy QB play last year, but we shouldn't confuse "Crappy" with "Conservative". If they reign in Winston to limit his mistakes, it's hard to imagine Evans producing top-10 numbers. Anyway, if you've ever looked at the historical impact of rookie QBs on their wideouts I'd love to hear about it.
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
It’s a great idea. So good that I will look into it thoroughly and post as a separate item in the next day or so. I will take the list of all rookie quarterbacks who’ve started 12-plus games in the last dozen or so years, and who was their leading receiver. We’ll want to look at the pass catcher’s stats, relative to the overall passing stats of the team. My guess is that the young quarterbacks, more so than veterans, will tend to lock in on a go-to target more often. That is, they’ll be less apt to spread things around to a bunch of other pass catchers – less often will they go to their second and third reads. I like Mike Evans very much. I like that he’s shown an ability to consistently win on contested balls. And I don’t think playing with Jameis Winston will slow him down at all. I am of the school of thought that Winston will be better than what Tampa Bay used at quarterback last year pretty quickly. And I like that Winston is a gunslinger type who’ll get the ball downfield, rather than trying to play it safe by throwing 5-yard completions to running backs and third-and-10, then happily jogging off the field so the team can punt. Winston probably will lead the league in interceptions this year, but he’ll get the ball downfield and give Evans a chance to make some plays, I think. Note that in Winston’s big year at Florida State, Kelvin Benjamin caught 15 TDs. Evans, like Benjamin, is 6-foot-5, and I think he’s a notch better as a receiver. Winston has supreme confidence in his arm, and that’s a great fantasy trait. I wanted to put Evans in my top 10, but he ended up in the #12 spot, and the stat projection differences were too great for me to fudge the numbers to get him up into the top 10. As much as I like him, I just couldn’t logically get him ahead of guys like T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, A.J. Green, Randall Cobb and Demaryius Thomas.
Question 4
In my dynasty league I was offered the No. 2 overall draft pick for AJ Green. I lost my Super Bowl by 5 points when AJ got me a goose egg. I like the top two receiver prospects. Should I sell high on AJ?
Mike McGraw (N Chelmsford, MA)
A bird in hand, they say, is worth two in the bush. And that’s exactly what we’re looking at here. Green wasn’t quite as dynamic in Hue Jackson’s offense. He’s also handcuffed to scatter-armed Andy Dalton. But he’s still good. Despite all the struggles and drama, Green still managed to catch 49 passes in the second half of last season (after he got over his injury issues early in the year). And he’s only 26 years old. He might be a top-10 receiver in another half-dozen seasons. So I see a little bit too much value there to trade him away for Kevin White or Amari Cooper. White could take a while to get going; he’s going to a terrible team, and he didn’t really run many routes at West Virginia. Athletically, he’s a dream – a big, physical Terrell Owens type guy – but it could be 3-4 years before he’s even the best receiver on his own team. With Cooper, he looks pretty polished but doesn’t have the elite size-speed numbers. Cooper is also headed to Oakland, which is a Black Hole in more ways than one. If I were making this trade, it might instead be with an eye on capturing Melvin Gordon. If you have need at running back, that would be awfully appealing (though you’re still playing the game of giving away a guy that we know is good for a player we hope will be good). Keep in mind with these can’t-miss wide receivers, that it’s easier said than done. Since the NFL moved to the eight-division format in 2002, 18 wide receivers have been selected with top-10 picks. Only six or seven of those guys have panned out. Definitely Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Green and Mike Evans. Sammy Watkins I’ve got as a maybe right now. The other 11 are misses (Michael Crabtree and Roy Williams weren’t “busts” but they didn’t develop into franchise-type playmaker receivers, as was the hope).
| RECEIVERS SELECTED IN TOP 10 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Receiver | Comment |
| 2003 | Charles Rogers | substance abuse |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson | HOF candidate |
| 2004 | Roy Williams | good not great |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams | substance abuse |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald | HOF candidate |
| 2005 | Troy Williamson | crappy hands |
| 2005 | Braylon Edwards | not sure why |
| 2005 | Mike Williams | weight/speed |
| 2007 | Ted Ginn Jr. | kick returner |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson | HOF candidate |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | crappy hands |
| 2009 | Michael Crabtree | OK but not great |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | great so far |
| 2011 | Julio Jones | great so far |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon | substance abuse |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin | size/hands |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins | good so far |
| 2014 | Mike Evans | 12 TDs as rookie |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper | don't know |
| 2015 | Kevin White | don't know |
Question 5
If I buy the pdf version of the magazine, will I have access to the auction values, stat projections, etc. as of that date as well (or do I just get a pdf copy of the magazine)? If I get all the other stuff, will that be available on the website July 1 as well?
Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)
You got it right. The pdf magazine is the same as the on-paper magazine in every way. You don’t lose any extras.
Question 6
I am involved in a Dynasty League for the second year and they are having their draft on the 6th of June. Do you have any resources that may assist me in such a draft. Apparently, we can draft players who were recently drafted onto NFL teams as well as any unprotected players that are listed on any NFL team's rosters. If you do not have any resource I can used can you suggest one.
TIM GONZALEZ (Dallas, TX)
Sorry. I’m just getting the mailbag fired up, and looks like I missed your deadline. For the rookie running backs, Andy and I have been debating that all spring. He likes Todd Gurley more. I prefer Melvin Gordon, figuring he’s a certainty to be better in 2015 and might be better in following seasons as well. Gordon’s going to a much better team with a much better offensive line. In their college games, I see Gordon making that first guy miss more often – I see a Tiki Barber or Marcus Allen kind of guy. With Gurley, he seems to be looking to run into people every chance he gets, and I wonder how long he’ll last. It also concerns me that Georgia’s running game didn’t fall off at all when Gurley got hurt – Nick Chubb was every bit as effective. So I got Gordon over Gurley. Not much difference between the next tier of running backs – Yeldon, Coleman, Abdullah. I also like David Cobb. At quarterback, I like Winston a lot more than Mariota. Mariota is much better as a runner, which is appealing, but Winston is miles ahead as a pocket passer, which I think is the more valuable attribute. Similarly with the wide receivers, Amari Cooper seems to be far more developed than Kevin White. In a dynasty format, I don’t think Breshad Perriman and Nelson Agholor are too far behind White.
Question 7
10 team 2qb league 5 pt. TD pass, .5 ppr, also 0.1 per car and comp keeper league 1 player after rd 7. All my keepers FA pickups, so I can choose only 1 player. RG3, Carson palmer, Justin forsett, Carlos Hyde, Victor cruz, cj spiller, nick foles
elton gordon (Palmdale, CA)
This is a two-quarterback league. That’s key. (Nice rule, by the way, it increases demand at that position, and I think that’s a good thing). So quarterback is probably the play. I like what Carson Palmer has done under Bruce Arians. Over the last two years, he’s been pretty similar to Tom Brady. Palmer has averaged 268 passing yards per game in those seasons, with 56 TDs in 37 games (1.51 per game). Brady has averaged 4 fewer yards per game but more touchdowns (58 in 32 games, or 1.81). I’d take a look at how Hyde and Spiller look in the preseason games, but I think Palmer will be your guy.
Question 8
any chance we could get 2014 3 wide receiver set info from 1st to worst?
brian postera (Turners Falls, MA)
On my board, I’ve got John Brown, Donte Moncrief, Davante Adams, Victor Cruz, Eddie Royal, DeVante Parker and Cole Beasley as the best of the 3rd-best receivers on each team. (Cruz and Parker might end up being starters, but I think each of them will be outperformed by two other receivers on their own team). Markus Wheaton, Stevie Johnson and Allen Hurns are the others who’d be in my top 10. For the worst, I think you’re looking at Cecil Shorts III, Kenny Bell, Corey Fuller, Jason Avant, Riley Cooper, Devin Funchess and Danny Amendola.
| THIRD-BEST WIDE RECEIVER ON EACH TEAM | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Pts |
| 1. | ARI | John Brown | 49 | 734 | 15.0 | 5.1 | 106 |
| 2. | IND | Donte Moncrief | 46 | 665 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 96 |
| 3. | GB | Davante Adams | 48 | 604 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 91 |
| 4. | NYG | Victor Cruz | 53 | 667 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 90 |
| 5. | CHI | Eddie Royal | 53 | 639 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 89 |
| 6. | MIA | DeVante Parker | 47 | 628 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 87 |
| 7. | DAL | Cole Beasley | 54 | 594 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 83 |
| 8. | PIT | Markus Wheaton | 48 | 595 | 12.4 | 3.6 | 83 |
| 9. | SD | Stevie Johnson | 48 | 570 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 79 |
| 10. | JAC | Allen Hurns | 41 | 569 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 75 |
| 11. | MIN | Jarius Wright | 43 | 526 | 12.3 | 2.9 | 74 |
| 12. | DEN | Cody Latimer | 35 | 538 | 15.5 | 3.4 | 74 |
| 13. | NO | Nick Toon | 37 | 519 | 14.0 | 2.9 | 69 |
| 14. | STL | Tavon Austin | 32 | 321 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 66 |
| 15. | ATL | Devin Hester | 29 | 383 | 13.4 | 3.9 | 63 |
| 16. | TEN | Dorial Green-Beckham | 30 | 482 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 62 |
| 17. | SEA | Tyler Lockett | 28 | 401 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 61 |
| 18. | BAL | Kamar Aiken | 31 | 416 | 13.5 | 2.8 | 58 |
| 19. | OAK | Andre Holmes | 29 | 426 | 14.5 | 2.5 | 58 |
| 20. | WAS | Andre Roberts | 34 | 428 | 12.5 | 2.2 | 57 |
| 21. | CLE | Andrew Hawkins | 36 | 419 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 55 |
| 22. | BUF | Robert Woods | 32 | 383 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 54 |
| 23. | SF | Bruce Ellington | 28 | 352 | 12.5 | 2.4 | 54 |
| 24. | NYJ | Devin Smith | 22 | 368 | 17.0 | 2.3 | 51 |
| 25. | CIN | Mohamed Sanu | 27 | 301 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 48 |
| 26. | HOU | Cecil Shorts III | 29 | 368 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 48 |
| 27. | TB | Kenny Bell | 20 | 296 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 38 |
| 28. | DET | Corey Fuller | 20 | 306 | 15.2 | 1.3 | 38 |
| 29. | KC | Jason Avant | 29 | 330 | 11.5 | .8 | 38 |
| 30. | PHI | Riley Cooper | 22 | 259 | 12.0 | 1.7 | 36 |
| 31. | CAR | Devin Funchess | 20 | 239 | 12.0 | 1.3 | 32 |
| 32. | NE | Danny Amendola | 19 | 173 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 26 |