Are wide receivers safer picks than running backs? That is, late in the first round are we better off going for a guy like Antonio Brown or Julio Jones or Dez Bryant, rather than a running back like DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill or C.J. Anderson? At times, it definitely seems that way. Running backs are more likely to get injured.

When I get out the numbers, however, the difference isn’t as severe as I thought it would be.

For this one, I took the top 100 running backs of the last 10 years and the top 100 wide receivers in the same time period. Then I looked at how they performed in their following season.

The wide receivers, in their big seasons, averaged 90 catches for 1,322 yards and 10.2 TDs. On average, they decreased by 15 receptions, 277 yards and 3.3 TDs. So overall, when you select one of these receivers, you can expect a stat decline of 25 percent.

There tends to be plenty of underachievers at running back – think Adrian Peterson, Monte Ball and LeSean McCoy, but the difference isn’t as much as you might think. The 100 running backs in their big seasons averaged 1,757 total yards (run and rec), with 13.3 TDs. The next year, those same running backs averaged 1,316 yards and 9.1 touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, that’s a decline of 27 percent – almost the same.

If you want to look at just the top 50 instead (about the top 5 each year) it’s about the same – almost identical. Running backs start off at 1,970 yards and 15.4 TDs and decline to 1,456 yards and 10 TDs, a drop of 28 percent. Wide receivers start off at 1,397 yards and 11.5 TDs and decline to 1,055 yards and 7.6 TDs (also a drop of 28 percent).

With either group, when you take a player who was successful, you are unlikely to see him put up even better numbers the next year. For wide receivers, only 17 came back and compiled even better numbers. So about one in five.

TOP RECEIVERS THAT IMPROVED
YearPlayerNoYdsTDPct
2011Calvin Johnson961,6811642%
2014Jordy Nelson981,5191328%
2014Antonio Brown1291,6981427%
2007Terrell Owens811,3551514%
2014Dez Bryant881,3201613%
2007Reggie Wayne1041,5101013%
2010Roddy White1151,3891012%
2006Marvin Harrison951,3661212%
2013Demaryius Thomas921,4301412%
2005Chad Johnson971,43299%
2007Chad Johnson931,44087%
2008Larry Fitzgerald961,431127%
2013Eric Decker871,288116%
2013A.J. Green981,426114%
2009Andre Johnson1011,56994%
2014Demaryius Thomas1111,619111%
2009Roddy White851,153111%

For running backs, 22 of the 100 came back and put up even better numbers. Also about one in five.

RUNNING BACKS WHO IMPROVED
YearPlayerRunRec TDPct
2009Chris Johnson2,0065031667%
2013Jamaal Charles1,2876931948%
2014DeMarco Murray1,8454161347%
2011Ray Rice1,3647041541%
2006LaDainian Tomlinson1,8155083135%
2011Maurice Jones-Drew1,6063741128%
2011LeSean McCoy1,3093152028%
2009Maurice Jones-Drew1,3913741622%
2005Shaun Alexander1,880782819%
2004Edgerrin James1,548483917%
2009Adrian Peterson1,3834361817%
2012Marshawn Lynch1,5901961214%
2004Shaun Alexander1,6961702014%
2014Eddie Lacy1,1394271312%
2014Marshawn Lynch1,3063671712%
2005LaDainian Tomlinson1,4623702010%
2007Brian Westbrook1,3337711210%
2008Adrian Peterson1,760125104%
2012Arian Foster1,424217174%
2005Edgerrin James1,506337144%
2005Tiki Barber1,860530112%
2005Rudi Johnson1,45890120%

For wide receivers, 14 of the 100 came back and finished with numbers that weren’t even half as good. Busts, for fantasy purposes.

RECEIVERS FALLING BY 50 PERCENT
YearPlayerNoYdsTDPct
2008Braylon Edwards558733-51%
2005Muhsin Muhammad647504-58%
2008Chad Johnson535404-59%
2008Plaxico Burress354544-60%
2013Julio Jones415802-61%
2011Andre Johnson334922-64%
2005Brandon Stokley415431-64%
2005Joe Horn496541-66%
2010Randy Moss283935-66%
2010Vincent Jackson142483-75%
2010Sidney Rice172802-78%
2007Marvin Harrison202471-85%
2014Josh Gordon243030-86%
2005Javon Walker4270-99%

For running backs, there’s a higher percentage of guys who came back and kind of fell apart – fell well short of where they were the previous year. Of the 100, 22 didn’t even finish with numbers that were half as good.

RUNNING BACKS FALLING BY 50 PERCENT
YearPlayerRunRec TDPct
2008Joseph Addai5442067-50%
2004Jamal Lewis10061167-50%
2011Darren McFadden6141545-53%
2010Ricky Williams6731413-55%
2006Clinton Portis5231707-55%
2005Curtis Martin7351185-59%
2007Rudi Johnson4971104-60%
2006Shaun Alexander896487-63%
2011Peyton Hillis5871303-63%
2013Arian Foster5421832-67%
2009Clinton Portis494572-70%
2007Larry Johnson5591864-71%
2006LaMont Jordan434742-72%
2009Brian Westbrook2741812-74%
2012Maurice Jones-Drew414862-77%
2013Doug Martin456661-78%
2004Travis Henry326450-83%
2014Knowshon Moreno14881-91%
2011Jamaal Charles8391-94%
2004Stephen Davis92320-94%
2014Adrian Peterson75180-96%
2010Ryan Grant4500-98%

So it seems like for fantasy purposes, in general when you take a wide receiver in the first round, it’s very normal to expect some decline – think 20 percent or so – when you select a receiver in the first or second round. With running back, it seems like more of the guys come close to putting up the same kind of numbers, but there are also more who simply faceplant and turn into a big pile of poo.

For both running backs and wide receivers, I disregarded players who didn’t play at all the following season. I didn’t want to pollute the study with anyone who retired or got hurt in the offseason.

—Ian Allan