If you want a really good wide receiver – a gamebreaker kind of guy – where should you look? That is, at what ages do wide receivers tend to put up their best ball. In a general sense, you might think old guys have slowed down too much, while youngsters don’t have enough know-how and experience. But how do we find that happy medium.

It’s different for different guys, of course, but we if we cast a large net over a large pool of receivers, it seems like wide receivers tend to play their best ball when they are 25 or 26 years old.

Here’s how I arrived at that conclusion.

I started by taking the 500 most productive wide receivers of the last 25 years. Then I tossed out the first four seasons (1991-1994). I didn’t want to mix in veteran receivers who perhaps had better years when they were younger in the late ‘80s. Similarly, I tossed out players with less than three years of present-day experience. While Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, for example, had big seasons as rookies, it’s too early to say if those will be the best seasons of their careers.

Then, for remaining players, I identified the best season of said player’s career. Each guy counts only once for the last 20 years. And this is a pool of 153 different players.

Now we can look at the ages of those 153 guys and see what emerges.

For starters, I don’t see many old guys. Only 7 of the 153 are over 31 years old. Not that this means you shouldn’t draft players like Roddy White and Andre Johnson. But with those guys, you’re not drafting them hoping you’re going to get their best season. You would be just hoping for serviceable production.

Similarly, only 6 guys under 23 years old. You don’t select those guys thinking they’re going to be their best coming out of the gate.

The best years are at 25 and 26 years old, with a combined 54 players. The 29-year-olds finish in 3rd place, with 16 players. No other group has more than 14.

BEST SEASONS FOR RECEIVERS
AgePlayers
211
225
2311
2412
2530
2624
2714
2812
2916
3013
318
322
332
343

If you look at the top 30 receivers of the last 20 years (again, with each player only credited with his best season) only two of those players are older than 30 and only four are younger than 25. So 80 percent of the receivers are 25-30 years old.

On this chart, I’ve got the young guys (under 25) flagged with dots •. I’ve got the two guys over 30 tagged with double dots ••.

TOP 30 RECEIVERS OF LAST 20 YEARS
YearPlayerNoTDAgeYr
1995•• Jerry Rice1,884173311
2007Randy Moss1,493233010
2011Calvin Johnson1,69216265
1995• Isaac Bruce1,79813232
2014Antonio Brown1,71114265
1995Herman Moore1,68614265
2001Marvin Harrison1,52715296
2003Torry Holt1,70112275
2001Terrell Owens1,43316286
1995Cris Carter1,37117309
2004•• Muhsin Muhammad1,42016319
2005Steve Smith Sr.1,58813265
2014Jordy Nelson1,51913297
1995Robert Brooks1,51813254
2014Dez Bryant1,32016265
2014Demaryius Thomas1,61911275
2013• Josh Gordon1,7349222
1998Antonio Freeman1,42914264
1995Carl Pickens1,24017254
2007• Braylon Edwards1,28916243
2000Rod Smith1,7019306
1995Michael Irvin1,60310298
2002Hines Ward1,47112265
2012Brandon Marshall1,50611287
2008Larry Fitzgerald1,43112255
2011Wes Welker1,5999308
2007Reggie Wayne1,51410297
2001• David Boston1,6338233
2009Andre Johnson1,5699287
2004Javon Walker1,38212263

As we try to apply this to our 2015 franchise receiving candidates, they look pretty good. Jordy Nelson is getting on the older side (he’s 30) but he should be fine. Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Emmanuel Sanders will all be 27-28 at the end of the year. Julio Jones and Randall Cobb hit on the two most popular years (Jones is 26, while Cobb will be 25 at the end of the year). Beckham is the young guy (22 in November).