Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why Rodgers and Luck become solid gold when touchdown passes are worth 6 points. A head-to-head luck at T.Y. Hilton and Julian Edelman. Disappearing bye weeks. And how early should one roll the dice on DeMarco Murray?
Question 1
Ian, great surprise seeing the Index on the newsstand Monday morning! My main league is 12-team. Lineups are QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex. 6 pts per TD throw. We can keep 1 player in the rd we drafted him last year. Choices are Lynch in the 1st or Rodgers in the 2nd. Since this is basically where they are going in drafts, should I toss them back & see what I get when my pick comes up? Or is it worth it to have Rodgers guaranteed in the 2nd? I generally want an elite QB in this league, but it is a little sink-or-swim based on how they play each week. I am considering a switch to WR-WR in first two rounds. Would love to hear your thoughts.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I’m keeping Rodgers. You said 6 points for touchdown passes, and that’s a different animal. Quarterbacks are king in that league. If you can latch onto the guy who throws 40-44 touchdowns, you’ve definitely got a contending team. And Rodgers, I think, is that kind of quarterback this year. Maybe you can draft Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger in the fifth round, or maybe you can get Joe Flacco or Philip Rivers in the eighth or ninth, but you look at the difference in production and it’s difficult to overcome. If everything hits and clicks with Flacco or Rivers, you’re maybe getting a quarterback who’ll throw 28 TDs. Roethlisberger and Ryan also easily could finish with that kind of total. With Rodgers and Luck, there’s a good chance you’re talking 40-plus. Which running back or wide receiver is it that you’ll be selecting in the second round who’ll outscore the fifth-round guys by 12 touchdowns? With that kind of scoring, I’ve got those two quarterbacks (Rodgers and Luck) as the top 2 overall players on my board.
Question 2
I am in a PPR, yardage and TD league (yes, offense heavy). Would you rather have T.Y. Hilton or Julian Edelman? Both have long keeper value.
Mike Ross (Foothill Ranch, CA)
In most formats, I have Hilton higher. He’s a more dynamic, playmaker-kind of guy. He’s got a lot more speed to get downfield for chunk plays, and he’s a better scorer. The Patriots threw 43 touchdown passes in 19 games last year, and Edelman remarkably caught only 5 of them. So Hilton in most formats. But in a PPR, where you’re plunking out a point for every 8-yard buttonhook, I have Edelman slightly higher. Catches are the golden commodity in that format, and I think Edelman will catch 100-110 balls. With Hilton, you’re looking at more of a streaky guy who’ll pay off big in some games but will have some quiet games. Maybe even more so this year now that Indianapolis looks deeper and better. They should get more out of Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson and Philip Dorsett than they got last year out of Moncrief, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks. They were pretty even last year. They were both healthy for 17 of their team’s 19 games, and Edelman finished with better stats in 9 of those 17. All of this, of course, is just for the 2015 season. If you’re also including future production, you need to factor in that Hilton is 4 years younger and working with a quarterback who’s just starting to hit the prime of his career.
| Hilton vs. Edelman (2014 PPR) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Game | Hilton | Edelman | Winner |
| 1 | 5-41-0 | 6-95-0 | Edelman |
| 2 | 6-65-0 | 6-81-1 | Edelman |
| 3 | 5-80-0 | 10-84-0 | Edelman |
| 4 | 6-105-0 | 4-23-0 | Hilton |
| 5 | 9-90-0 | 5-35-0 | Hilton |
| 6 | 9-223-1 | 9-91-0 | Hilton |
| 7 | 7-107-0 | 4-44-0 | Hilton |
| 8 | 6-155-1 | 1-14-0 | Hilton |
| 9 | 3-71-1 | 9-89-1 | Edelman |
| 10 | 3-24-0 | 5-50-0 | Edelman |
| 11 | 4-122-1 | 11-89-0 | Hilton |
| 12 | 5-62-1 | 7-48-0 | Hilton |
| 13 | 10-150-2 | 8-141-1 | Hilton |
| 14 | 4-50-0 | 7-88-1 | Edelman |
| 15 | hamstring | concussion | -- |
| 16 | 1-0-0 | concussion | Hilton |
| 17 | 6-103-0 | 8-74-0 | Edelman |
| 18 | 4-72-0 | 9-98-0 | Edelman |
| 19 | 1-36-0 | 9-109-1 | Edelman |
Question 3
Last year I was tempted to select DeMarco Murray at #6 but due to injury concerns I went with a safer pick. With 20/20 hindsight I wish I had pulled the trigger on Murray. My 12-team PPR league awards 1 pt per 10 yds rushing and 1 pt for 15 yds receiving, so pass catching RBs are gold. Picking #5 this year, I'm having the same temptation to pick Fragile Arian Foster this year. He's a stud in a run heavy offense with no threat from his backup. I'd roll the dice on getting 12+ good games out of him and plug in the respectable Alfred Blue for a few games if necessary. I anticipate first four picks will be Charles, Lacy, Bell, and Peterson with Forte possibly replacing one of those four. Care to talk me out of picking Foster at#5? Also, assuming Gronk and the top two QBs are gone by pick 2.8, I think it's a no-brainer going RB/WR (eg, Foster/Nelson) as opposed to WR/RB (eg, Brown/Forsett). Agree?
STEVEN MATH (Austin, TX)
I’m not sure what the scoring system is. Most notably, I don’t know if the 1 point for 15 receiving yards extends to wide receivers. If we’re going 1 for 10 with the wide receivers, then I would pounce on Antonio Brown if he were available at No. 5. If you’re locked into a running back at the No. 5 spot, then I would be looking at DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson. I’ve got both of them ahead of both Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster. With Peterson and Foster, you’re talking about older backs who are injury risks.
Question 4
I started playing Fantasy Football in 2005 and formed my own league, the BBFFL. I have looked at tons of magazines but I have always liked and bought your publication. The user-friendly format and the information it packs is quintessential to my brother and I. My brother attributes his five league titles to your magazine’s insight and I have to agree. My question is this, why did you take out the BYE WEEK listing in the individual team schedules? I know you list the bye teams in the week-to-week schedule, but it is very annoying to have to figure out when a team has a bye week. I didn't buy your magazine to put further thought into making fantasy moves. I hope you will put the BYE WEEK listings for TEAM schedules in the 2016 Publication.
Michael Rodriguez (San Dimas, CA)
Agreed. I like the bye weeks. I noticed it when the page proofs were going by but didn’t think too much about it. I think the layout guy removed them to save the 32 lines. Or maybe they were simply never in there. But however it played out, I will make sure they’re in there next year. The bye week isn’t a game, of course, but it is one of the 17 in-season events. It’s nice to make note of teams working with an extra week of rest and whatnot.
Question 5
I am in a Keeper league with standard scoring. We get to keep (3) players each year. Here are my main guys and I wanted to know which (3) you would keep. Romo, Forsett, Hyde, Tre Mason, Jeffery, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders.
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
Antonio Brown is definitely No. 1. Emmanuel Sanders is definitely No. 2. Those guys should pile up plenty of catches, yards and touchdowns. They might both catch 100-plus passes. With Sanders, they’ll be using him more in the slot this year, so I think his catch total will rise. There’s also no sign of Demaryius Thomas, and as he tries to work out a contract, that could favor Sanders. Do they allow teams to start three receivers in this league? If so, then I will also take Jeffery. That’s a sinking ship, captained by the petulant Jay Cutler. I imagine he’ll be benched and disgruntled by the end of the year, and the Bears will be the last-place team in the NFC North. But Jeffery their clear No. 1 guy, so I’ve got him as the 15th-best wide receiver on my board. In a regular draft, he would be selected before any of your other options.