Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Can Cordarrelle Patterson turn around his career? Which teams will have the best offenses? And which rookies will be the most effective kick returners?
Question 1
I am probably the only person who thinks that Cordarrelle Patterson is not washed up. He has done all he can to get ready for this year. He worked on his route running with a former NFL player whose name escapes me. He hired a personal trainer to get in peak shape. I think he just needs the opportunity. With that, here is my question. Has there ever been a wide receiver who has rushed for a 1,000 yards in a season?
JOHN SHELBROCK (Frankenmuth, MI)
The Vikings traded for Mike Wallace. They wouldn’t have taken on that contract unless they were confident he’d be a lot better than Patterson. And they’ve got Charles Johnson, who played great in the second half of last year. I can’t see Patterson beating him out. So I think he’s looking at some kind of backup role. And even when you get down there, Minnesota got really good production out of Jarius Wright in the slot last year. Wright caught 68 percent of the passes they threw to him, and he averaged 9.5 yards per pass play. Of the 86 wide receivers with at least 50 targets last year, those are top-15 numbers. So I think those are the top 3 wide receivers in this offense – Johnson-Wallace-Wright. I will agree that Patterson is a talented guy, but he hasn’t shown much aptitude for actually playing wide receiver. Running routes, hands, finding soft spots in zones – that kind of stuff. If we’re getting all of the NFL receivers and holding a track meet, with sprints, long jump, hurdles and triple jump, then I will be very interested in Patterson. But I would not even consider making him one of the first 100 wide receivers selected in a fantasy draft. I will concede your point that he’s a talented runner. One of the few wide receivers that looks like he might actually be able to transition to running back. Back in 2013, he ran for 3 TDs when they started lining him up in the backfield (after Adrian Peterson got hurt). Then he had the 102-yard game at St. Louis on opening day last year, with a 67-yard touchdown. The NFL is deep with running wide receivers right now. In the last 10 years, only 10 wide receivers have run for over 150 yards in a season, and half of those seasons were compiled by guys who are in their prime right now – Patterson, Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin. Four of the other five such seasons were compiled by guys who saw time as Wildcat quarterbacks (Josh Cribbs and Brad Smith twice each).
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 150+ RUSHING YARDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | Long | TD |
| 2009 | Josh Cribbs, Clev. | 55 | 381 | 6.9 | 37 | 1 |
| 2012 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 52 | 345 | 6.6 | 39 | 2 |
| 2010 | Brad Smith, NYJ | 38 | 299 | 7.9 | 53t | 1 |
| 2014 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 36 | 224 | 6.2 | 19 | 2 |
| 2009 | Brad Smith, NYJ | 18 | 207 | 11.5 | 57 | 1 |
| 2014 | Percy Harvin, Sea.-NYJ | 33 | 202 | 6.1 | 51 | 1 |
| 2008 | Josh Cribbs, Clev. | 29 | 167 | 5.8 | 27 | 1 |
| 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 12 | 158 | 13.2 | 50t | 3 |
| 2010 | Jacoby Ford, Oak. | 10 | 155 | 15.5 | 71t | 2 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 9 | 151 | 16.8 | 65t | 1 |
Question 2
Which teams do you see being in the top 5 offenses this year?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
On my board, I have six offenses finishing with over 47 touchdowns. I’ve got the Packers away ahead of everyone, up at almost 54 TDs. And I’ve got five other teams clumped in the 47-48 range. In descending order: Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, New England and New Orleans. Top 5 in passing yards: Colts, Saints, Steelers, Packers and Falcons. Top 5 in rushing yards: Seahawks, Panthers, Eagles, Bengals, Vikings.
Question 3
I wonder if you could project what rookies from this year’s class would be likely to do kick and punt returns. Our league (established in 1981) drafts individual returners and a favorite ploy is to stash a rookie or two in the return slot and hope you get lucky two ways. There is a huge 24 point bonus for return TDs and if the guy can also play a position it can be a good strategy indeed. The problem is if your guy isn't used as a returner by week 4 you either drop him, or move him to a skill position. Then your brilliant move can become a bit burdensome.
Mike Shaughnessy (Angus, ON)
In no particular order … Nelson Agholor was a good punt returner at Southern Cal, and the Eagles are really good on special teams. So that’s a nice combo. But I’m not confident they’ll even use him on returns. They’ve got Darren Sproles returning punts, and Josh Huff scored on a kickoff return last year. … I am confident Kevin Lockett will return both kickoffs and punts for the Seahawks, and I think he could be really dynamic in those roles. He’s got the ability, and Seattle has been great on special teams in the past. They traded up to get him. Lockett should also be a reserve receiver – their third or fourth guy – so he should be on your radar. … Kaelin Clay will return kicks for the Bucs, but I think that’s all he’ll do. I don’t think he’ll be a factor as a wide receiver at all. Clay scored 4 TDs on returns last year at Utah (one on a kickoff, 3 on punts). … Similarly, J.J. Nelson should be the main returner in Arizona. He ran a 4.28 at the combine. … In the same vein, the Saints drafted Marcus Murphy to return kicks. I don’t think he’ll get on the field at all. … I believe Ameer Abdullah will be the No. 2 running back in Detroit. Joique Bell is the starter, and then they’ve got Abdullah. He returned kickoffs with some success at Nebraska, so maybe. But I think they’ll stick Jeremy Ross in that role. … The Packers drafted Ty Montgomery to be a returner. He’ll handle both kickoffs and punts. But I don’t think he’ll see the light of day as a wide receiver. … I saw Todd Gurley impressively score on a couple of kickoff returns at Georgia – big man who runs fast. But he’s coming off a major knee surgery, so it will be a big upset, I think, if they in any way consider using him on returns this year. I don’t know that he’ll ever return a kick in the pros. … Phillip Dorsett a laser, and the Colts are looking for ways to get the ball in his hands. He’s damn fast. But he has very little background as a returner. I didn’t like at it super closely, so I may have missed one or two, but I think that’s it.
Question 4
Been buying the magazine since 1993 and it has helped me have good success. What kind of formula do you use when lowering the value of someone like LeVeon Bell who is going to automatically miss 3 games?
JOHN TREANOR (Venice, CA)
The actual value, if you wanted to get really mathematical about it, would be to declare that Bell’s fantasy “value” is his production in his games (which apparently could be 13 games max) plus the production you’ll get from the guy you use to fill in for him while he’s on the sideline. Suppose, for example, that when you select Bell in the first round, you then solidify that selection by choosing DeAngelo Williams in the late rounds. So Bell’s true “value”, you might say, would be Bell’s 13 games plus Williams’ 3 games filling in. And if you go with that simplified route, you might put Bell at the very top of the heap. But more realistically, you need to figure in other factors. Namely, you need to use a later round pick on Williams. That comes at a cost. If you need to select Williams, you may feel pressured into selecting him a little earlier than you have to, which ends up costing you Mason Crosby (the No. 1 kicker on our board). And there’s the cost of Williams taking up a roster spot, which potentially could be used on another player who might break out. And while Bell is missing only three games, that looks like a pretty big chunk right now. You might open 0-3 with your top dog on the sidelines in September. And on my end, it’s tough for me to keep my Bell ranking strictly statistical. Various leagues are different. In some leagues, teams are carrying only 14-15 players, so DeAngelo Williams won’t even be drafted. In that kind of format, Williams maybe truly is a throw-away extra you can get in the final round. But in other leagues, there will be 240 total players selected. In such a format, you can be sure there will be competition for Williams’ services (affecting Bell). So I end up kind of playing with the numbers until he kind of shows up about where I think he should. In this case, most running backs of his ilk (heavily used backs) I project to play about 14 games. That is, I figure the over-under on injuries for backs like that is about 2 games. Bell got hurt last year in Week 17, and he also missed time as a rookie with a preseason injury. But with Bell already having the suspension, I’ve projected him to miss only about one game with an injury. That is, I’ve got him at about 12 games (3 via suspension and 1 via injury) which causes him to show up in the top 10 where I want him.
Question 5
Every year we hear FF journalists say something along the lines of, “if you get X, you need to make sure you get his handcuff.” No snark - is that even mathematically relevant? The handcuff you draft in many cases might not even be the replacement guy when your player goes down – there are only a few teams where it is an open and shut case. Also, a handcuff clogs your bench every week unless there’s a very specific condition that is met, like an injury or bye week that requires the “spare tire.” Finally, backups are backups for a reason. They just usually aren’t as good. I would think that it would be better every round to draft a player at any position who you know is going to start the season on the field. You don’t need to wait for an emergency condition to use that person, you can use him any time you want. Downside is you are choosing to assume the risks that X won’t get hurt or that if he does you’ll have a good shot at his backup. What do you think?
Tru Livaudais (Tuscaloosa, AL)
I disagree. I think you have to keep in mind where you are in the draft. You draft your starters, and you draft some guys who are realistically your backups – the guys you’ll be using to cover for bye weeks. But after that spot (in perhaps the final half-dozen rounds) I’m more interested in upside than warm bodies. Specifically, I don’t want crappy receivers that I know will finish with about 700 yards and 5 TDs. I’m not drafting Tavon Austin, Riley Cooper or Mohamed Sanu. I am far more interested in selecting a backup tailback who will hardly even play, knowing that there’s a reasonable chance that at some point, he’ll become a starter. And with certain backup tailbacks – Knile Davis, James Starks, Ryan Mathews – once they get in the lineup, they start putting up top-10 numbers.
Question 6
I was looking through your preseason projections, and on your PPR sheet, your defensive projections are different. Please explain the point system you use for "defensive points allowed", which is part of the defense/special teams projection.
JOEL VAN DIGGELEN (VERNON HILLS, IL)
On the regular “standard” Cheat Sheet, defenses are ranked based on takeaways (2 points), sacks (1 point) and touchdowns scored on returns of interceptions, fumbles and kicks (6 points). Takeaways and sacks tend to drive those rankings. The PPR sheet includes all of those exact same numbers but also includes weighting for points allowed. The defenses we think will allow fewer points are ranked higher. And the rankings there are more aggressive than what is used in most fantasy leagues. In most systems, defenses get maybe 10 points for a shutout (which is almost impossible) and a little chunk of credit for holding opponents under 7 points (also really hard to do). In the scoring here, each defense starts with 12 points and loses a half point every team an opponent scores a point. That is, if the opponent finishes with 10 points, the defense gets a score of 7. If the opponent scores 14 points, the defense gets 5. If the opponent scores 21 points, the defense gets 1.5 points. And if the opponent scores 30 points, the defense finishes with -3.
Question 7
I actually have two questions for you if that's ok. The first would be if it is a good or a bad thing for Demaryius Thomas to sign a long-term deal with Denver. I own him in a keeper league and am hoping he signs the franchise tag and hits free agency next year. Peyton Manning will likely be gone after this season and I think wherever else he would sign will have a better QB situation than Brock Osweiler. My other question is whether or not slot receivers have a longer or shorter career than outside receivers and if they are more or less durable. Recent history would suggest that they not only have shorter careers but tend to miss more games. Just curious if you have done any research or have any insight.
Chris Faxel (Orland Park, IL)
That’s a clever idea with Thomas. Good thinking. But it’s too early, I think, to consider the five-year contract a problem. Let’s see what Osweiler looks like in August. Maybe he’ll come on and develop into a viable quarterback. And there’s also the considerable possibility that John Elway will be able to talk some other quarterback into joining the Broncos next spring. Let’s see. As for slot receivers and durability, that’s an interesting concept. Guys working the middle of the field seem to take more punishment, so maybe they’re more prone to missing some games. Wes Welker and Wayne Chrebet, certainly, seemed to pick up more concussion because of the types of routes they were running. Percy Harvin and Danny Amendola are slot guys who’ve had injuries. But I don’t recall Hines Ward, Brandon Stokley or Davone Bess being particularly injury prone. It might be worth looking into, but I don’t have a good feel off the top of my head for how to do it.
Question 8
I know you, like myself, enjoy kickers in a fantasy league! If you were in a PPR 4 pt QB scoring system with 1 pt for 10 yards Rush/ receiving 6 pts TDs, what do you think is the best system to employ for Kickers that have a great day (example 5 FGs, two over 50 yards with 2 XP) that can equate to a player like a WR having a great day (say 9-150 with 2 touchdowns = 36 points). I have tried 2 pts for XP and all FG = 5 points with bonuses for 50 yd + , but it seemed to equate to too many points for kickers. The 1 pt XP 3 pt FG seems too low! Any thoughts? I thought maybe 3/4/5/6 points for 30/40/50/60 yards and maybe a 3 pt bonus for more than 4 FGs in a game.
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
I spent a few hours yesterday auditing and adjusting the baseline figures in the CUSTOM SCORING area. That is, I put together stat projections for all of the players, but there’s an interface where those numbers are then applied to the drafts of all of the most popular fantasy games around – NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports, etc. For each of those games, I have to look at their scoring system and decide how many players at each position will be selected, and how many are worth going after in anything other than the late rounds. With kickers, I came to the conclusion with most of those games (and there were about a dozen of them) that they are set up for only about 14 kickers to be selected. They tend to draft few enough players (I think) that most fantasy owners will carry only one, then pick up a kicker when the bye week comes along. With that in mind, I think you need to work from the assumption that even if you don’t select a kicker until the last round, there’s still a good chance you’ll be able to hop around and finish with a top-10 player at that position (or even better). I also notice that for almost all of those games, the kicker scoring tends to be based on 1 point for extra points, 3 points for field goals under 40 yards. 4 points for the 40-49 yards range. And 5 points for 50-plus. Using that scoring system doesn’t help to spread out the kickers. Almost everyone ends up picking up another 12-17 points on the season. The guys who happen to finish a little above or below that range … well … nobody can forecast that. Given the structure of those games, I think that even the teams that pretty much blow off the kicker position have a decent chance of finishing with about 140 points. The very best kicker, meanwhile, probably will close at about 160 points. So you’re looking at chasing after about 1 point per game. I think this is fine. Few would support the notion, I think, of trying to elevate kickers up to the level of Julio Jones and Dez Bryant.
| KICKERS (performance method) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | NFL | Extra | Total |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 156 | 14 | 170 |
| Cody Parkey | 150 | 12 | 162 |
| Adam Vinatieri | 140 | 13 | 153 |
| Dan Carpenter | 133 | 19 | 152 |
| Dan Bailey | 131 | 18 | 149 |
| Matt Bryant | 127 | 22 | 149 |
| Mason Crosby | 134 | 13 | 147 |
| Steven Hauschka | 134 | 13 | 147 |
| Randy Bullock | 130 | 15 | 145 |
| Shaun Suisham | 132 | 12 | 144 |
| Justin Tucker | 129 | 12 | 141 |
| Caleb Sturgis | 128 | 12 | 140 |
| Nick Folk | 119 | 15 | 134 |
| Graham Gano | 121 | 11 | 132 |
| Josh Brown | 116 | 12 | 128 |
| Chandler Catanzaro | 114 | 14 | 128 |
| Mike Nugent | 117 | 10 | 127 |
| Phil Dawson | 108 | 17 | 125 |
| Blair Walsh | 107 | 17 | 124 |
| Cairo Santos | 113 | 9 | 122 |
Question 9
There's been a lot of hype about Davante Adams coming off his good rookie campaign. In a basic scoring league, with exactly 4 Keepers and 3 starting Receivers (TE or WR), I'm planning to hang onto Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, and Mark Ingram. For my 4th, I'm unsure whether Jordan Matthews or Adams offers better long-term value. I consider Matthews to be more of a high floor/low ceiling-type guy, whereas Adams could be a stud for years to come. My question: does hanging onto Adams as insurance against Cobb or Jordy Nelson having a poor season make better sense than diversifying my team with a non-Packer like Matthews?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
If you’re looking at 2015, there’s no doubt in my mind that Matthews is your guy. He’ll have a larger role in his team’s offense. But at some point in 2016 or 2017, my expectation is that Adams will become the better of these two receivers, and then he could become a monster-type receiver for a few seasons. Imagine, for example, that Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb gets hurt in one of the next three years. And even when all of Green Bay’s receivers are healthy, it might not be long before Adams is right up there with those guys.
Question 10
You always give great information. I have won four championships in a row and looking for a fifth. I am in a PPR league and need to decide who to keep. Peyton Manning, Antonio Brown or C.J Anderson. 6 points for all touchdowns and half point per completion. I am leaning toward Manning and Brown.
Tony Falvo (toronto, ON)
In a regular, traditional PPR league, I would keep Brown and Anderson. But you mentioned the two extra rule wrinkles. TD passes are worth 6 points. And more notably, quarterbacks get a half point for every completion. That’s huge. In a regular league, quarterbacks get 1 point for every 20 passing yards. In your league, they’re getting essentially 2 points for every 20 yards (1 point for the yards themselves, and 1 point for the two completions needed for those yards). So quarterbacks become a coveted commodity in your league. Luck and Rodgers project to be the top 2 players overall, and I’ve got five other quarterbacks in my top 18 overall. You keep Manning.
Question 11
When will the Excel file with your projections be available, thanks!
TOMMY LUCKNER (Wichita, KS)
Those are available on the website. Click on “Your Stuff” and you should see a link under the July 2, 2015 section.