I’ve spent most of the day working on kickers. I was checking the scoring systems used by most of the popular fantasy sites – NFL.com, ESPN, Yahoo, CDM – and it seems like most everyone uses distance bonuses for kickers. So I’ve been looking into the accuracy of how we forecast those players (not only which guys will score the most points, but how they’ll score those points – which will hit the most long field goals and which will hit the most extra points).
With extra points, there’s a strong correlation between wins and extra points. That is, the teams that are winning games tend to be the clubs that are putting the ball in the end zone. The losing teams tend to score a great proportion of their points on field goals.
Over the last 10 years, NFL kickers have averaged 33 percent of their points on PATs. That’s all teams. But teams that have gone at least 12-4 have averaged 37 percent of their points on extra points. Teams that have finished 4-12 or worse have averaged only 27 percent of their points on extra points.
Teams finishing within a game of .500 (7-9 to 9-7) have finished right where you would expect, with 33 percent of their scoring on extra points.
This means, that when you start giving extra points for field goals (with 40-49 yard field goals worth 4 points and 50-plus field goals worth 5, for example) it will tend to help the lesser teams more. Those teams, after all, are scoring more of their points on field goals.
Of course, those winning teams are getting a big head start with simply more scoring opportunities. Over the last 10 years, the 12-4 group of kickers has averaged 23 more extra points and 4 more field goals, relative to the 4-12 teams.
| KICKING - TEAMS WINNING 12-PLUS GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | FG | XP | Pts | Pct XP | Pct FG |
| New England (16-0) | 21 | 74 | 137 | 54% | 46% |
| Green Bay (15-1) | 24 | 68 | 140 | 49% | 51% |
| Indianapolis (14-2) | 23 | 52 | 121 | 43% | 57% |
| San Diego (14-2) | 26 | 58 | 136 | 43% | 57% |
| Indianapolis (14-2) | 16 | 50 | 98 | 51% | 49% |
| New England (14-2) | 22 | 62 | 128 | 48% | 52% |
| Seattle (13-3) | 18 | 56 | 110 | 51% | 49% |
| Denver (13-3) | 24 | 42 | 114 | 37% | 63% |
| Chicago (13-3) | 32 | 47 | 143 | 33% | 67% |
| Baltimore (13-3) | 28 | 37 | 121 | 31% | 69% |
| Indianapolis (13-3) | 23 | 49 | 118 | 42% | 58% |
| Dallas (13-3) | 26 | 53 | 131 | 40% | 60% |
| Green Bay (13-3) | 31 | 48 | 141 | 34% | 66% |
| Tennessee (13-3) | 29 | 40 | 127 | 31% | 69% |
| New Orleans (13-3) | 22 | 60 | 126 | 48% | 52% |
| San Diego (13-3) | 32 | 50 | 146 | 34% | 66% |
| Atlanta (13-3) | 28 | 44 | 128 | 34% | 66% |
| New Orleans (13-3) | 28 | 63 | 147 | 43% | 57% |
| New England (13-3) | 28 | 59 | 143 | 41% | 59% |
| San Francisco (13-3) | 44 | 34 | 166 | 20% | 80% |
| Atlanta (13-3) | 33 | 44 | 143 | 31% | 69% |
| Denver (13-3) | 25 | 75 | 150 | 50% | 50% |
| Seattle (13-3) | 33 | 44 | 143 | 31% | 69% |
| Denver (13-3) | 24 | 56 | 128 | 44% | 56% |
| Dallas (12-4) | 20 | 35 | 95 | 37% | 63% |
| Jacksonville (12-4) | 23 | 38 | 107 | 36% | 64% |
| New England (12-4) | 20 | 43 | 103 | 42% | 58% |
| Indianapolis (12-4) | 26 | 47 | 157 | 30% | 50% |
| Indianapolis (12-4) | 20 | 43 | 103 | 42% | 58% |
| Carolina (12-4) | 28 | 46 | 130 | 35% | 65% |
| Pittsburgh (12-4) | 27 | 36 | 117 | 31% | 69% |
| NY Giants (12-4) | 36 | 41 | 149 | 28% | 72% |
| Minnesota (12-4) | 26 | 54 | 132 | 41% | 59% |
| Baltimore (12-4) | 26 | 39 | 117 | 33% | 67% |
| Pittsburgh (12-4) | 29 | 38 | 125 | 30% | 70% |
| Pittsburgh (12-4) | 23 | 36 | 105 | 34% | 66% |
| Baltimore (12-4) | 30 | 40 | 130 | 31% | 69% |
| New England (12-4) | 29 | 66 | 153 | 43% | 57% |
| Houston (12-4) | 31 | 45 | 138 | 33% | 67% |
| Carolina (12-4) | 24 | 42 | 114 | 37% | 63% |
| San Francisco (12-4) | 32 | 44 | 140 | 31% | 69% |
| New England (12-4) | 38 | 44 | 158 | 28% | 72% |
| Dallas (12-4) | 25 | 56 | 131 | 43% | 57% |
| Green Bay (12-4) | 27 | 53 | 134 | 40% | 60% |
| New England (12-4) | 35 | 51 | 156 | 33% | 67% |
| Seattle (12-4) | 31 | 41 | 134 | 31% | 69% |
| Average | 27.1 | 48.8 | 130.7 | 37% | 62% |
Here be the lesser teams …
| KICKING - TEAMS LOSING 12-PLUS GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | FG | XP | Pts | Pct XP | Pct FG |
| Oakland (4-12) | 20 | 30 | 90 | 33% | 67% |
| Green Bay (4-12) | 20 | 30 | 90 | 33% | 67% |
| Tennessee (4-12) | 23 | 30 | 99 | 30% | 70% |
| NY Jets (4-12) | 22 | 24 | 90 | 27% | 73% |
| San Francisco (4-12) | 26 | 21 | 99 | 21% | 79% |
| Tampa Bay (4-12) | 17 | 22 | 73 | 30% | 70% |
| Cleveland (4-12) | 21 | 25 | 88 | 28% | 72% |
| Oakland (4-12) | 23 | 28 | 97 | 29% | 71% |
| Kansas City (4-12) | 19 | 21 | 78 | 27% | 73% |
| Atlanta (4-12) | 26 | 25 | 103 | 24% | 76% |
| NY Jets (4-12) | 29 | 23 | 110 | 21% | 79% |
| Seattle (4-12) | 24 | 30 | 102 | 29% | 71% |
| Cleveland (4-12) | 30 | 18 | 108 | 17% | 83% |
| Washington (4-12) | 22 | 26 | 92 | 28% | 72% |
| Kansas City (4-12) | 25 | 29 | 104 | 28% | 72% |
| Buffalo (4-12) | 16 | 31 | 79 | 39% | 61% |
| Cincinnati (4-12) | 24 | 30 | 102 | 29% | 71% |
| Denver (4-12) | 19 | 30 | 87 | 34% | 66% |
| Tampa Bay (4-12) | 26 | 23 | 101 | 23% | 77% |
| Cleveland (4-12) | 24 | 20 | 92 | 22% | 78% |
| Detroit (4-12) | 32 | 38 | 134 | 28% | 72% |
| Philadelphia (4-12) | 27 | 25 | 106 | 24% | 76% |
| Oakland (4-12) | 31 | 25 | 118 | 21% | 79% |
| Oakland (4-12) | 21 | 37 | 100 | 37% | 63% |
| Atlanta (4-12) | 24 | 39 | 111 | 35% | 65% |
| Cleveland (4-12) | 21 | 33 | 96 | 34% | 66% |
| Tampa Bay (4-12) | 23 | 31 | 100 | 31% | 69% |
| Jacksonville (4-12) | 23 | 22 | 91 | 24% | 76% |
| Washington (4-12) | 24 | 31 | 103 | 30% | 70% |
| NY Jets (4-12) | 32 | 23 | 119 | 19% | 81% |
| New Orleans (3-13) | 25 | 22 | 97 | 23% | 77% |
| Detroit (3-13) | 29 | 30 | 117 | 26% | 74% |
| St. Louis (3-13) | 24 | 25 | 97 | 26% | 74% |
| Tampa Bay (3-13) | 16 | 24 | 72 | 33% | 67% |
| Minnesota (3-13) | 22 | 38 | 104 | 37% | 63% |
| Washington (3-13) | 21 | 33 | 96 | 34% | 66% |
| Oakland (3-13) | 19 | 28 | 85 | 33% | 67% |
| Jacksonville (3-13) | 20 | 23 | 83 | 28% | 72% |
| Houston (2-14) | 26 | 24 | 102 | 24% | 76% |
| Oakland (2-14) | 18 | 16 | 70 | 23% | 77% |
| Kansas City (2-14) | 16 | 31 | 79 | 39% | 61% |
| St. Louis (2-14) | 31 | 19 | 112 | 17% | 83% |
| Detroit (2-14) | 21 | 25 | 88 | 28% | 72% |
| Carolina (2-14) | 25 | 17 | 92 | 18% | 82% |
| Indianapolis (2-14) | 23 | 24 | 93 | 26% | 74% |
| St. Louis (2-14) | 21 | 18 | 81 | 22% | 78% |
| Jacksonville (2-14) | 25 | 18 | 93 | 19% | 81% |
| Kansas City (2-14) | 28 | 17 | 101 | 17% | 83% |
| Houston (2-14) | 26 | 26 | 104 | 25% | 75% |
| Tampa Bay (2-14) | 20 | 31 | 91 | 34% | 66% |
| Tennessee (2-14) | 19 | 27 | 84 | 32% | 68% |
| Miami (1-15) | 21 | 26 | 89 | 29% | 71% |
| St. Louis (1-15) | 19 | 16 | 73 | 22% | 78% |
| Detroit (0-16) | 21 | 25 | 88 | 28% | 72% |
| Average | 23.1 | 26.0 | 95.4 | 27% | 73% |
—Ian Allan