Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Justin Forsett the most underrated of the top running back prospects? Why isn't Andre Johnson ranked higher (when some other older receivers are)? And is it possible to use an early-round pick on both Rob Gronkowski and a top-level quarterback?
Question 1
This is my first time looking at the rankings for 12tm Standard. I figured you would be really high on Forsett this year, but instead i see a guy like Melvin Gordon in the top 10. I understand people are worried about Forsett because of age, but he has never truly carried a big workload until last year and he did extremely well. To me this and the next year would be considered his prime as an RB and he is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Also I understand that Kubiak is not longer around, but I believe Forsett can do big things with Trestman. Thoughts?
ANTHONY MARTINO (Philadelphia, PA)
For me, it’s not age that’s so much the worry (though he will be 30 in October). It’s his size and overall ability. At 5-foot-8 and 194 pounds, he’s a small, ordinary back. Doesn’t have great speed. He was a seventh-round pick way back when, and he’s been off and on a lot of rosters over the years. Many teams have had him over the years, and none of them were all that interested in him. Seahawks, Colts, Seahawks again, Texans, Jaguars. To me, I see a college-type skillset. Not a guy that many coaches would be confident using in short-yardage situations. I saw him go down awfully easily on a few of those carries last year; but mostly the Ravens pulled him on those plays. Now it’s a completely different team. Gary Kubiak and his zone-running system are gone. Now they’ve got Marc Trestman. So I can see the potential for Forsett to quietly go away. That’s why he was very conservatively graded in the magazine. They’ve also got Lorenzo Taliaferro, and they drafted Javorius Allen. How confident that one of those guys won’t be sharing time with Forsett by Week 3? That said, I spent most of Wednesday carefully going over all of the projections for the running backs. I audited all of those rankings and tweaked a lot of guys. A couple of months have gone by, and now we’ve got a week of training camps under our belts. And Forsett ended up being one of the guys who moved up the most. The Ravens may have a couple of other backs, but my sense is that he’s definitely the starting back there. And while I’m sure he’s rushing production will be down, Trestman loves heavily incorporating his running backs into the passing game. I don’t remember the exact stat I posted about a month back, but I believe of the last 20 running backs who catch 70 or more passes in a season, I think about eight of them were in a Trestman offense. Matt Forte caught a record 102 last year. Larry Centers, Charlie Garner, Derek Loville. I think Forsett can handle those kind of duties. He caught 44 passes last year. Meanwhile, while the Ravens may have selected Allen in the fourth round, I haven’t heard a peep about him making much of any impact at camp. For those who like to select wide receivers early, Forsett could be sitting there as a nice running back value in the third or fourth round.
Question 2
Andre Johnson PPR ranking seems low? I know its early and he is getting up there but he has caught a lot of balls and is working with Luck now. Thoughts?
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
I’m way lower on Johnson than everyone else, so if you give any weight to my rankings, he won’t be on your team. He’s an older guy who’s declined some, but that’s not my big issue with him. It’s the offense he’s playing in. The Colts will pass for more yards and touchdowns than the Texans ever did, but Johnson no longer is in that key, featured role. In Houston, the offense was built around him. They were forcing him the ball down after down, and he was catching 100-plus balls. Here, he’s just one of many guys. T.Y. Hilton is way more explosive; he’s their No. 1 guy. I think Donte Moncrief is ready to move into a significant role. They’ll want to work in Phillip Dorsett for some big plays. And they pump a lot of balls to their tight ends. Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener combined for 80 catches and 16 TDs last year.
Question 3
There are several receivers you guys seem to be high on -- Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon LaFell for example. I'll probably end up with a couple of these if I follow your advice. But in an article today Andy Richardson really trashes Roddy health wise. I know it's a risk, but are you sure you'd rank them so much higher than other sources do?
Jane Williams (Wooster, OH)
I’ll agree that I’m higher on those guys. I keep doing mock drafts, and those guys keep winding up on my teams. Where exactly Andy has those guys, I’m not sure. I don’t think he likes them as much. We did the Mock Auction in the magazine, and he sent me a follow-up question reading something like, “Well, all you have at wide receiver are old guys like White, LaFell, Fitzgerald and Boldin – what went wrong there?” But I think these guys will be fine. They’re veterans; they know what they’re doing. White outscored Julio Jones 7-6 (in touchdowns) last year, and I think most would be comfortable with Jones on their roster. White is 33 years old. I think it’s a little early to be putting him out to pasture. A reader sent in a trivia question the other day asking for the names of the only three wide receivers to score at least 10 PPR points in each of their final eight games last year. Answer was Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and White. In PPR, 10 points isn’t a great game, but the reader’s point was that White is consistently involved. With Fitzgerald, I think he’ll get a nice boost from Carson Palmer being healthy all year. I’m comfortable with all three of these receivers in my top 20 at that position. I posted a chart on this yesterday on the website. Of the last 100 wide receivers to finish the year ranked 11th to 20th, a quarter of those guys were thirtysomethings.
Question 4
More a thought than a question, but I would like your opinion. In doing many mock drafts for PPR format I've come to the conclusion that you cannot select Rogers in the first round (or any QB really in the first four rounds) and take Gronkowski in the second. Although you may have the top QB and top TE you will either have no shot at a 100-catch WR or if you do get one your No. 1 RB will be say the 20th-best RB on the board. So if I have a late draft slot and the Gronk is there in round two, I simply have to let another owner take him.
Tavis Medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
I agree that there’s a cost to select a quarterback or a tight end in the first four-five rounds. It puts you a spot behind in the race to assemble talent at running back and wide receiver. So selecting both a tight end AND a quarterback in the first four-five rounds is not a typical road to take. But it’s my opinion that a lot of the older receivers in this year’s drafts will be undervalued. I think you can probably get Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald or Brandon LaFell (as Jane Williams points out in another letter) in the seventh round, and I think they’re more valuable than that. If you don’t take Rodgers or Luck, you probably need to select a quarterback in that round. So if you do go quarterback earlier, you’re then set up to select one of those veterans in that spot. And if you play around with scenarios, it’s at least possible to select both Gronkowski and one of the big-time quarterbacks. For example, you could select Antonio Brown or Dez Bryant in the middle of the first round. They’ll both catch plenty of balls. Then you get Gronk coming back. In the third round, either Luck or Rodgers has lasted because everyone wants to wait on quarterbacks. In the fourth round, you select C.J. Spiller as your first running back. He’ll catch 70-80 balls for the Saints, making him a fine starter in your PPR format. I would be comfortable with that start.
Question 5
Looking at the rbs you have ranked 11-20 in standard league formats, which ones would you be most confident in could make the leap to top 10? Obviously every year a good number of the preseason top 10 ranked RBs bust.
Jace Lane (Green Bay, WI)
With the way running backs get hurt, benched or simply underperform, there’s a reasonable chance about three-four guys in the second 10 will have to move up. My highest-rated guys just outside my top 10 are McCoy, Gordon, Morris and Lamar Miller. McCoy is a little different than the others in that I believe he’s in the top 6-8 on most people’s boards.
Question 6
I am in a 2-QB league, where TDs are worth 6 pts each. It is a 1-pt PPR, and we have a rookie keeper system, where if the rookie you draft is still on your team at season's end, you can keep him for his sophomore season only in the same draft slot. I have the 6th pick, and I will probably keep Blake Bortles in the 10th round as my 3QB. I plan on taking RB & WR rounds 1-2, or WR-WR, because I believe Flacco-Eli-Tannehill-Rivers-Big Ben will be available 3rd rd. I REALLY want Jameis Winston as my 2QB. Do you think 5th round is too high? Do you think not selecting a QB in the 1st rd is a mistake? Thanks, and the magazine is great this year!
jeff mcgrath (Palm Harbor, FL)
When you have double quarterbacks and are giving 6 points for touchdown passes, that’s a powerful incentive to select a quarterback (or two) in the first two rounds. I was just playing around with a few of the numbers. In my rough draft, I have 14 quarterbacks in my top 31 overall, including 11 in the first two rounds (24 picks) of a 12-team league. I like Winston’s long-term prospects, but in this kind of format, the object isn’t to collect guys who’ll become good in 2018 or 2019. I’m not looking for a guy who’ll have a nice first year, maybe throwing 21 TDs. You need real production. You need to get a pair of guys (if possible) who might throw 30-plus each.