Ian Allan answers all of your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Will Steve Smith go out with a bang this year? Which positions carry the most risk? And is C.J. Anderson the latest in a long line of overrated Denver running backs?
Question 1
Steve Smith has just announced 2015 will be his final year in the NFL. Does this effect his ranking and furthermore, do you think he may have value in the final weeks of the regular season when most fantasy leagues are in playoff mode?
SHAWN WELLS (Philadelphia, PA)
Clever idea. He’s at home in Weeks 15-16 against Kansas City and Pittsburgh. I suppose he might up his game a little bit in those. He’s shown some flair for this in the past. He torched the Panthers, for example, when he got a shot at his old team this year. This time around, I would think Smith would be most likely to maybe come up with a little something special in Week 16. It’s his final home game, and it’s also the Sunday night game on national TV (assuming it doesn’t get flexed out). Could be kind of a going away party game for him. Just hope he’s still healthy. He’s an older guy, and he takes a beating with his playing style.
Question 2
When reading over various fantasy experts' explanations on their rankings, no one ever seems to talk about the reliability of an individual player ranking. The last few years I've heard a lot about how Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks are more reliable than Running Backs to perform at or near their rankings, but what about individual players? Hypothetical questions. Is Jamaal Charles as close as a sure thing can be to finish as a top 5 RB? Is Demaryius Thomas too big a risk to even draft? By asking this I am trying to limit risk in my roster. Where are the safest options this year? What about the least safe - Who are the big risk/reward guys? I think if you could hammer down some guys who are pretty reliable to perform near their ranking, be it round one or even round 7, you could build a really solid fantasy team.
Jake Haugen (Hutchinson, MN)
It’s football. Guys get hurt (and arrested and suspended). Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning have all suffered injuries during their careers. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson have missed essentially entire seasons. There are no “sure things”. I don’t see Demaryius Thomas as a high-risk player, but I’ve got him lower than most – I see him as more of a top-10 receiver rather than a top-5 guy. As far as positional numbers – who’s safer and who’s riskier – I would put forth that we know who the good quarterbacks are going to be. You don’t see guys coming out of nowhere and jacking up 40 TDs. But you do see this on occasion at other positions. Justin Forsett wasn’t even a backup tailback at the start of last year, and he ended up being pretty good. Josh Gordon the previous year. So let’s do this. Let’s take the top 10 players at each position over the last 10 years. So, a total of 100 guys at each of those positions. The quarterbacks, on average, declined by 48 points – 349 to 301 points. The wide receivers declined (again, on average) by 48 points (195 to 147). The running backs, on the other hand, declined by an average of 73 points – 246 to 174. That’s way more than the other positions. That’s using standard fantasy scoring. Put another way, 51 percent of quarterbacks were at least 90 percent as good in their following season. But only 31 and 28 percent of wide receivers and running backs came within 10 percent of their top-10 seasons. Or yet another way: Half of all running backs (50 of 100) declined by over 30 percent statistically after a top-10 season. With wide receivers, 37 percent declined by at least 30 percent. With quarterbacks, only 17 percent declined by 30-plus percent. I’ve got some numbers. Let me figure out if there’s a decent way to post something on the site in the next day or so.
Question 3
Tatum Bell. Montee Ball. Now C.J. Anderson...the "Stud Denver RB" hype train rolls on. I know he looked great in the 2nd half last year, but it is an insanely small sample size. Clady is out for the year & they are looking at a rookie at left tackle. I'm in the Denver area & I hear the training camp updates - they are shuffling the O line around on a daily basis. I am very, very, very hesitant to select Anderson with a top 10-pick (although he seems to have slipped a little in your latest update.) Seeing as it is debate season, I would like to hear your rebuttal to the points I just made. Thanks for everything you do!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Gary Kubiak. Look at the work he did in Baltimore last year. The Ravens were terrible in 2013; couldn’t run the ball at all. The offensive line was terrible. Kubiak was able to implement a new running scheme, and the Ravens improved from 30th to 8th in rushing, averaging 43 more yards per game. Their rushing average improved from 3.1 to 4.5 yards per carry. And Kubiak did this without great personnel. Justin Forsett entered last season as a scrap-heap guy, but he ran for 1,266 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per pop.
Question 4
Looking at your spread sheet ... something is wrong with the spread sheet ... Giovani Bernard is going to start 2 games and score over 200 points? I think the sheet is whacked. And Ryan Mathews is going to start 2 games and score 250 points? Something is not right.
R Slocum (Washington)
The stats (in the Excel stat download) are presented in three different ways. (And if you look down at the bottom of the file, there are three different tabs, allowing you to toggle between the different views.) The first is the per-game look. That shows how each guy will perform, on average, in any given game when in a starting, featured-type role. So for Bernard or Mathews, that shows how they would perform if Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray were out with injuries. The second tab shows the expected season total for each player. For guys like Bernard and Mathews, this means you get those two games that they start (that’s what we’re guessing), plus you get the stats they would accrue in their other 14 games, when they were change-of-pace guys coming off the bench. It’s this sheet that drives the rankings you see on the Cheat Sheet. Some readers don’t like per-game stats, and others don’t like the concept of some players being ranked higher simply because they’re starting more games. An ordinary tight end starting 16 games, for example, might beat Antonio Gates, who’s a top-10 guy but is suspended the first four games. Anyway, we’ve got a third tab. In that one, it shows how each player would perform if he was a starting, featured player and remained in that role for the entire 16-game season. So it’s just the same as the first tab, except every number is multiplied by 16. On that sheet, we continue to list the projected number of starts for each guy (2 for Mathews and Bernard) so you are reminded that we’re not suggesting said guys will start all 16 games. Got it?
Question 5
Last year, I was able to win two NFL pools, one against the spread and the other straight up, by following your analysis of which teams had what percentage chance of winning each game. Thank you. I remember the season chart went week by week through all games for the entire season. Is that chart forthcoming this year?
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
Thanks for your kind words. The “All 256” is something I’ll put together before the start of the season, and I update it approximately every other week during the season. But I don’t want to weigh in with initial picks until after I’ve seen all of the teams play their second and third preseason games. At that point, I think I’ll have a better feel for what every team is all about.
Question 6
I need your help in avoiding lousy quarterback play this year. I'm in a 12-team league with four points for TD passes, one point for each 25 passing yards and a negative point for each interception. There are no limits to how many quarterbacks each team can draft, and this league tends to draft a bunch of them. Last year, I was all proud of myself for resisting the early run on quarterbacks (somebody even took Matt Ryan in the first round), and I figured I'd get Big Ben or Philip Rivers as my starter in the middle to late rounds. But even those two guys were selected before I felt comfortable taking them, and I ended up with Andy Dalton as my starter and Alex Smith as my backup. Those underwhelming selections and a hole at No. 2 RB largely doomed me to a 10th-place finish. So should I go into this year's draft trying to get Luck or Rodgers in the first round or one of the second-tier passers in the third or fourth rounds, even if that means drafting somebody too early? Or should I stick to my guns and write off last year as a fluke?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
It’s not a passer-friendly format, so I wouldn’t be thinking too seriously about Luck or Rodgers until late in the second round. (With the interception stipulation, by the way, I would have Rodgers over Luck – Rodgers throws fewer picks.) Assuming you don’t get either of those guys, I don’t see much difference between the next seven guys. I would hope to pick up one of the last of those guys chosen – maybe Cam Newton, Matt Ryan or Eli Manning. If that plan fizzles away, then you then at that point need to make quarterback more of a priority and pick up one of the other guys who at least has some ability to play.
Question 7
I have the sixth pick in my 10 team, 15 round, PPR league this year and I'm wondering if it's makes sense to trade it for the # 10 spot where I would have two picks in a row? We award six points for all touchdowns, (QBs included). One half point for a rushing attempt & one point for a reception. My normal draft strategy is to grab the best RB available in the first round & follow it with the best WR available in the second round. After that it's best player available, regardless of position. Your thoughts? Part of my dilemma is that I won last year's championship from the No. 10 spot. I'm concerned about being overconfident based on past experience.
JAN RISSMAN (Shavano Park, TX)
We have the custom scoring deal on the website, where you can put in your scoring system and see how the board stacks. PPR tends to favor wide receivers, and 6-point TD passes tends to favor quarterbacks. But you’re also got the half point per rushing attempt, and that’s a big booster for running backs. That means a running back with 20 carries gets an extra 10 points. Carries aren’t a stat that’s included in that custom scoring area, of course, but you can still account for them in an accurate enough way. You can just sneak those points into the yards section. Right now, you probably have it set on 1 point for every 10 rushing yards. If a running back is also getting a half-point per carry, he’s also getting another 1.25 points for those 10 yards if he’s averaging 4.0 per carry. So in the area where you’re currently specifying 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, just change that to 2.25 points for every 10 rushing yards. I spent a few minutes playing around with the parameters for your league, and to me it looks like the first eight players should all but running backs. Then two quarterbacks and three wide receivers in the next five.
Question 8
I can keep one RB in my PPR League. My choices are Forte, Randle or Miller. Leaning Miller as I think Miami will finally have a potent offensive. Everything about Chicago scares me: Cutler, the O-line and the loss of their OC. Randle has huge upside behind the Dallas O-line, but small scope of work to judge. Looking for insight. Thanks in advance.
Adam Bergeron (Salem, NH)
Randle isn’t in the mix. Too much uncertainty, I don’t think he will necessarily do enough in the passing game. Forte is an older, declining player, and I agree with you that it makes sense to try to avoid him. A lot of poor indicators there. But while Miller is younger and has some positive attributes, I can string quite enough together to get him past Forte. It’s a PPR format, and while I’m sure Forte’s receiving production will be way down, he’s still a much better pass catcher than Miller.
Question 9
Standard scoring format with the exception of all TDs (including TD Passes) are worth 6 points. Format is QB/RB/RB/Rec/Rec/Rec. How much does that increase the value of the top QBs compared to other positions? I'm sure Rodgers and Luck go in the first, but what RBs & WRs do you still place ahead of them. Would this significantly change your drafting strategy of waiting on QB?
BRYAN FIELD (Frisco, TX)
This kind of thing is best looked at in the Custom Scoring area. You go in there, and you can change the scoring to however you see fit – it blends your scoring system with our carefully crafted stat projections. I played around with the numbers a little. Looks like Luck and Rodgers should be the first two players selected. After that, the next wave of quarterbacks kicks off about 25 players in.
Question 10
I'm in a 3-player keeper league and you lose the pick that the player was drafted at. PPR. My keepers from last season are Demarco Murray, T.Y Hilton, and Julian Edelman. I acquired the first overall pick and available players will be A.J Green and Matt Forte. Should I go with the safe pick and longer lasting Green or a solid RB2 in Forte? If I went with Green as my 3rd WR I could grab Spiller in the 3rd.
Garrett Seymour (Fitchburg, WI)
I’m not crazy about Green or Forte with the No. 1 pick overall. Forte is getting long in the tooth, and I don’t think they’ll use him in the passing game like they have in the past. I also don’t think he’ll play as much (they’ll work in their backups more). I would select Melvin Gordon before Forte. With Green, he wasn’t used as effectively last year, but I will concede that he’s at least a candidate. After he got over his toe injury last year, he at least caught 49 passes (just 3 TDs) in the second half of the season.
Question 11
This may not be the appropriate place to ask this question, but on this years magazine cover the last bullet point states *Keeper League Cheat Sheet* What page is this on, because I have turned this magazine inside out trying to find it. Maybe you can give me a page number. I hate to think that I picked up the lone mag on the shelf that is missing this page. Hope to hear from you soon.
Michael Dunfee (Johnstown, OH)
Page 23. It is under the title, “Dynasty League Cheat Sheet”.