Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In this special Week 1 Double Issue (with all the letters that had to be ignored on Monday/Tuesday). Will suspended Martavis Bryant be an undervalued steal? What will Christine Michael do in Dallas? And is Cleveland's Isaiah Crowell a breakout running back?
Question 1
Martavis Bryant: will he be top 10 last 12 games of season? you have him at 124 points in standard scoring leagues, which projects to 165 for a 16 game season, which puts him at number 10 or 11 on your chart.
Peter Wohler (Minneapolis, MN)
I like Bryant a lot, but there are some dummy stats loaded in there. That is, I put in a few stats behind the curtain to make sure he was up high enough. His actual projection for the final 12 games is 100 points. But I like the idea of selecting him. You can poke around and find some fill-ins for the first four weeks while he’s down.
Question 2
Seeing Montee Ball (who was my #1 Rd pick a year ago), released from an NFL roster this year made me wonder . Can you name the last time a guy who was generally recognized as a first-round pick ever been out of football only a year later?
TOM SIINO (Morris Plains, NJ)
It’s remarkable. And it’s telling that not only did they cut him loose, but no other team was willing to pick him up on waivers. Just doesn’t look fast enough or athletic enough – doesn’t look like he’s in ideal shape. Give the Broncos credit for being willing to move on, rather than seeing the truth in front of their eyes and refusing to believe it.
Question 3
I don't see Tyler Eiffert on your tight end fantasy index cheat sheet. What happened?
JOHN MACPHEE (Coeur D Alene, ID)
I think he’s a solid sleeper-type guy. I’ve got him between 17th and 19th in most formats.
Question 4
I took a flyer on Christine Michael when I heard he was being shopped. How long does it take an RB to be acclimated to a new team to be a starter? (if he's even that good)
James COSTELLO (Biddeford, ME)
He’s in the mix, I think. They’ll go with McFadden and Randle this week, and those guys will get a chance to show what they can do. The Giants don’t have much talent up front, so they could be pretty good (meaning they’ll be the main guys again in Week 2). With Michael, you’re taking on a stab-in-the-dark who might develop into something in October.
Question 5
Ian, I've been a fan of the Crow since you talked him up during last preseason. A couple weeks ago I was able to move Bishop Sankey for the Crow in a 1 for 1 (sold Sankey 'high' based on his W2 preseason performance). Now Terrance West is moved to Tennessee and its just Crowell and the Duke in Cleveland. Please give me your analysis of the Cleveland RB situation and if you think I'm good with Crow as my #3 RB now (0.5 ppr)? Thanks Ian, been loving your work since you had Priest Holmes on the cover and I was a bored teenager at the DFW airport newsstand. A Redskins fan in enemy territory
Robert Heater (Bethesda, MD)
I think you’ll be fine with Isaiah Crowell. He’s definitely a powerful, fast, talented guy. A huge upgrade over Bishop Sankey, I am 90 percent sure. I think they’ll also work in Duke Johnson, but that he’ll be more of a change-of-pace and third-down guy. Johnson is more elusive and a better pass catcher, I believe. But you might have a top-20 running back in Crowell.
Question 6
My work league (12 teams, std scoring, 17 rounds) had our draft yesterday, and in this one I planned to change my usual strategy and commit to taking DST in the 16th & K in the 17th. D worked out great (Chiefs), but a shocking number of kickers went in this one - 18! (We get 6 pts for 50+ yd FGs.) So, as you are an admitted kicker enthusiast, what would you do in my shoes: I drafted Catanzaro, but he's been pretty sketchy this preseason. Available FAs are Scobee, Brown, Nugent, Bullock, Gano, Hopkins - all pretty much interchangeable in your rankings. Stand pat or try to improve the position? Thanks for all you do!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I think it’s a week-to-week proposition. For now, you play matchups. Catanzaro, Gano and Nugent all look like pretty safe choices for Week 1. With Catanzaro’s accuracy issues, I guess Gano would be safest.
Question 7
Who are your top 10 sleeper RB and top 10 ten sleeper WR?
JEFFREY DEITER (Lumberton, NJ)
For sleepers, I think you’re best to load up in the late rounds on handcuff running backs. James Starks, Damien Williams, Jerick McKinnon, Knile Davis, Ryan Mathews, Josh Robinson. There will be injuries along the way, and then those kind of guys will become golden.
Question 8
I wanted to know what your thoughts are on Amari Cooper. Do you see him as a future star in the NFL? I have been offered him for Calvin Johnson and a First Round pick in 2016. It is a PPR 10 team Dynasty League that keeps 8 players a year. I think the draft pick will be somewhere in the middle of the round, going off of last year. I have a feeling that after the season starts this offer may be off the table. I hate to get rid of megatron, but like to get rid of players that still have value before their complete decline.
DAMON DUHON (Baton Rouge, LA)
Some wise NFL guy said that it’s always better to get rid of a player a year too early rather than a year too late. I would definitely trade away Johnson. Cooper should be almost as good as him pretty quickly, and you’ll have that first-round pick to work with.
Question 9
Pick1. 10 team PPR. Is Peterson my guy???
ANTHONY IAMURRI (Laurel, MD)
Many would take him, but he wouldn’t even be a consideration for me. I’d much rather have one of the franchise wide receivers, Julio Jones or Antonio Brown. (I don’t think Peterson is even the top running back.)
Question 10
12 team dynasty, standard scoring (3pt TD pass QB), need bench WR. Have Antonio, ODB Jr, & Cooks ( all off week 11), with DB-G (TEN) & Moncrief on bench. Am considering trading P. Manning & Eiffert for Perriman & Kaepernick. Have Luck, Bortles at QB and Kelce, Allen at TE. Am I nuts? Opponent upgrades at QB, but Eiffert is B/U for him. Would like value for Manning before he goes down or proves age.
SAM WOOD (Northborough, MA)
We’re getting rid of Peyton Manning because we want a backup wide receiver for Week 11? Listen to yourself. You need to sit back and relax; there is plenty of time to find some fill-in talent for that week.
Question 11
I need your opinion. I follow your rankings religiously for the most part, year in and year out. I have won MANY leagues. Last night I had my last draft (I am in 6 leagues, different buy-ins and formats). In my Yahoo Pro 250 Standard, I drew the #3 pick. I took Lacy. When it came back to me I took Randall Cobb (before Calvin, Green, Alshon, Hilton, Matthews and Sanders). I then took Ingram and reached for Foster in the 4th. I'm feeling good so far. But in the 5th I was forced to take Davante Adams. Now don't get me wrong, I love Adams. But now it turns out that I have 3 Packers! Is this a good thing? According to your rankings I am in good shape. But still, should I try to divest myself of one of these wideouts? What is your opinion of this scenario?
John Calvo (Miami, FL)
I think the job now is to sit back and enjoy. Get ready to start cashing some checks. I think the Packers will have the best offense in the league, probably scoring 50-plus touchdowns. Including Aaron Rodgers, there are four big pieces driving that offense, and you’ve got all but one of them. To me, sounds like you’re on your way to a great season.
Question 12
Thank you for the years of insight. I don't always agree with your assessments but you have helped me learn to develop a way of thinking, fantasy football versus real football, to increase the odds in my favor. Sometimes the opinion you disagree with the most can spark the intellect the best. I agree with most of your rankings this year so I'm comfortable asking you this question. I've been going around and around on this decision. In my 12 team league, standard scoring we start 1 QB 1 RB 2 WR/TE 2 FLEX & 1 K with 5 reserves. My starters are Matt Ryan, Latavius Murray(Who doesn't want a guy named"Latavius" on their roster), Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Mark Ingram, Jarvis Landry, and Brandon McManus. My bench includes Chris Ivory, Christine Michael, Darren McFadden, Devonte Freeman (trying for Coleman also but.....),and in the second to last round took a flyer on Brian Quick. Now I realize that there are smarter ways to go than with Brian Quick, a player who may be the red zone go-to guy for a team with a defense that could force a lot of turnovers. Or he may be the second tier receiver for a team that can't pass the ball very well. I could handcuff Ingram with Khiry Robinson or........Eric Decker, Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Danny Woodhead are available. Brian Hartline is another boom or bust bye week starter depending on which Josh McCown shows up this year. And since I don't lose a stud until week 6 so maybe Antonio Gates is the high percentage play here. I won't bore you with my super-sleeper list. Like you,Ian, I'm a stats and trends guy but I don't do nearly as much math. I know what I would do if I had to pull the trigger right now, but that could very well change by next Wednesday. I'm looking forward to get your thoughtrs and to engage in the debate, and comments to follow.
Donald DeKeyser (Green Bay, WI)
If you’re looking for a guy to play in a lot of weeks in the flex spot, I think it’s Decker or Stevie Johnson. If you would like to fortify your backfield to guard against the possibility that Ingram gets hurt, then it’s Khiry Robinson. Those are the three guys I would be considering, and I would place all of them well ahead of Brian Quick.
Question 13
Drafted Martavis Bryant, so I need a replacement for 4 weeks. We are a 16-team league, each team carrying 4 WRs, so the pickings are fairly slim. Since I'm only looking for a 4-week rental, I am more concerned with who my potential waiver pick-up has for opponents to start the season. Of course, wouldn't mind seeing the guy go off and have some trade value either... With that in mind, who amongst Tyler Lockett, Greg Jennings, Donte Moncrief, Kenny Britt, Corey Brown and Cody Latimer would you recommend? Thanks in advance..
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
For me, Brown, Jennings and Britt are the three that percolate to the top. Brown could be fine if he gets over his drops issue. With Moncrief and Latimer, you’re waiting for an injury, but that doesn’t really apply here, since you’re looking at four weeks.
Question 14
I'm thinking of trying out the zero RB philosophy this draft. Which backs would you target in rounds 5-9? I'm in a ten team league. Thanks!
Chuck Penza (Hammonton, NJ)
In a 10-team league, there will be some good ones that aren’t selected at all. You can be sure of that. Justin Forsett wasn’t picked last year. How about Ryan Mathews, who’ll be productive as a backup and likely start at some point? And if Ivory makes it to the fifth round, I want him.
Question 15
Intrigued by the revised strength of schedule you posted. With the preseason now completed, and the movements of certain teams, was curious if you could post (rank) all 32 teams defensively against the pass & run. Thank you for your analysis.
Tod Denison (Bakersfield, CA)
Projected rushing and passing yards are in the Excel file that is posted each week (the stat download file). That file has only points allowed, however, and not expected rushing and passing touchdowns separated out. But it’s a good starting point.
Question 16
Ticky tack request, but any way you can do the "dynasty rankings" as a separate page rather than lump it in with the capsules? I usually print out my sheets, and any paper I can save by not printing full pages that I don't need is helpful. Thanks guys for considering ... looking forward to a great season!
BRYAN BERTSCH (Minneapolis, MN)
A couple of guys mentioned this. My thinking is that I didn’t have enough material to fill out a full page. I didn’t want to get into dynasty rankings for kickers and defenses. And with running backs and wide receivers, I’m going over 70 deep, while with the quarterbacks and tight ends, we’re holding it at 50. Thinking out loud, I suppose we could look a three-column product – one each for RB and WR, with the others stacked on top of each other and running about 35 deep.19
Question 17
Are there any fantasy games out there that offer 3 or 4 player "pods" to choose from for each position, rather than salary cap? Draftstreet used to have that but of course they are gone now.
David Leonard (Ormond Beach, FL)
Not that I am aware of, but maybe there’s a reader out there who has seen one?
Question 18
I am in an auction league where we can keep two players. We have $150 to spend. I have 4 possible keepers with their salaries: Cobb-$18 Hilton-$10 Hyde- $1 Ingram-$4. We give points for yardage but not PPR. Which two would you keep? Thanks!
jay harwood (Mishawaka, IN)
I don’t have time to run exact numbers, but I would guess that Hilton and Ingram will outperform their contracts by the most.
Question 19
With the acquisition of Christine Michael causing McFadden and Randle to drop fifteen+ spots in the rankings, are you expecting Michael to take more and more touches as the season progresses? I took McFadden at 6.10 (Randle went at 4.07.) I took Foster one round earlier, thinking D Mac would put up decent early season numbers and I could trade him once Foster was back for a couple of games and proved to be healthy. Now I am thinking I might want to pull the trigger after just three or four weeks, before Michael starts to earn more snaps. Or do you expect Michael to have an immediate impact and D Mac will have little trade value?
PHIL KEIL (Pottsville, PA)
Those three guys will compete, and I believe Michael is right there in that mix. He might be their best back in November and December. But for the first week, I don’t know that he’ll even be active. I think you start D-Mac in your first game.
Question 20
Just purchased your updated cheat sheet. Good work as always. You mention that the Colts will struggle against physical offensive lines. I have a huge bet on the Colts winning 11 or more games this year. I want to hedge and bet against them in the games they are most vulnerable you losing. Using the theory that they will struggle against the physical offensive lines , looking through their schedule which games should I expect they will lose or be close to losing ?
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
I posted a breakdown yesterday with a winning percentage breakdown of all 256 games. So I will let you see the exact numbers there. I am not assuming they’ll necessarily win in Buffalo this week. I consider the Bills to be a sleeper-type team that will very much be in the playoff hunt.
Question 21
half point PPR...have 10th pick in a 16 team league...players I think will be there are: D Murray...C J Anderson...D Thomas and M Forte...who would you recommend? thanks
richard lisieick ()
I’d just go straight off the board. Best available. I haven’t looked at half-PPR rankings (use custom scoring) but in PPR, I sure like receivers who catch 100-plus passes.
Question 22
Have a dynasty question. 12 team non ppr. I was aiming at a title run and lost Jordy. I could still compete but it is a tougher trail now. Was just offered R. White/E. Decker for Jordy/2016 4th. Current line up would be, Luck, Charles, Ellington/Gore, Hilton, DJax, Andre Johnson, Bennett, Watt, Chandler Jones, L. David, D'Qwell, A. Okafor, C.J. Mosley, E. Thomas, T.J McDonald. We do not have to start a TE or RB. Depth pieces include Quick, Hurns, Malcolm Floyd, Britt, Aiken Think that trade makes my team stronger?
Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)
White and Decker. Those are guys who can play. My gut tells me to go for it. You’ve got the quarterback/tailback tandem in place.
Question 23
Help me!!! I'm picking 8th in a 10 team draft. I just received the September 1 update. I know I could get Julio at 8 and B. Cooks at 13. I'm scared to death at the RBs I'd be getting in 3 and 4 round. There's probably gonna be at least 15 RBs gone by the time I pick at 28 and 33. Btw, we could start 4 WR (3 WR and a flex). Is WR-WR crazy in the first 2 rounds???
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
I think you can win with those guys. And I’ll beat you can still cobble together a running game in the later rounds.
Question 24
Hi Ian, I am in a 16 man keeper, you can keep up to 5 players. I have Brady, D. Murray, Ingram, C. Johnson, Jeffery and Gronkowski. I am debating between cutting Jeffery or Brady. Even though you have Jeffery rated higher on your overall ratings, I looked at the predicted points for Brady vs. the number 16 qb on the list(whom I will most likely get when I start drafting) and Jeffery vs. the number 32 wr on the list and Brady would be the better pick. Age is also a concern. Which way would you go?
Jake VanderVies (Buckley, WA)
I believe I would keep Jeffery. I think you’ll have more luck filling the quarterback slot.
Question 25
In a 12 team standard league. Eddie royal just got drop on the waiver wire. Is he worth picking up? I have Kenny stills and Brian quick who I'm leaning on sending off. Need your help in making this decision before Eddie is not available.
huy le (oxnard , CA)
Sounds good. Royal should catch plenty of balls.
Question 26
Ok, I was able to land Lacy with my fourth pick in a 10 team league. Extremely happy with that! Coming back up, Gronk was there so I grabbed him. Then in the third round I selected Cooks from New Orleans because he was so high on your list. Not so much on anyone elses though - he was fairly far down. I also have Martin and Ellington at the other RB and flex - and Adams from GB at WR. Romo at QB, Vinateri at K and Phily def.
PAUL HOUSE (Lafayette, IN)
Sounds good. Go win games.
Question 27
In a 12 man PPR league You can start a QB as a flex (essentially a 2 QB league) Bonuses are given at 300,350,400 yards passing and passing TDs are SIX points (not 4 as most). Rushing and receiving bonuses are given at 100 and 150 yds. Who do you take 3rd overall in the draft? Would you go QBs in first two rounds in this format?
Chris Vukich (New Brighton, PA)
I don’t have time to run exact numbers, but I would guess it will be quarterback dominant. I think two quarterbacks in the early rounds would be mandatory. But there will be some good ones who will slip too far (most notably Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick).