Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Dion Lewis a better fantasy back than LeGarrette Blount? Is it wise to start both Julio Jones and Roddy White? And when should we start panicking on guys like Calvin Johnson and Teddy Bridgewater?
Question 1
Do you think Victor Cruz is worth stashing on the bench?
Paul Davis (Mineral City, OH)
No. I don’t see much upside. Even when he’s all the way back to full speed (and will that even happen?) I’m not sure that he would be of much value. Beckham is the clear No. 1 guy there. I would rather use that roster spot on a handcuff running back who might become good in the event of an injury. In a typical fantasy league, I believe there are plenty of free agent wide receivers who are similar in value to Cruz.
Question 2
For this week you have Dion Lewis very high; However, in your write-ups it sounds a bit on the fence about how he'll do. Do you start him in a PPR over CJ2K or D.Martin, or even Sproles? Is the Doug Martin experiment over before it started? I picked him in my leagues between round 4 and 5 and I just can't believe how bad Winston looked.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
We know that the Patriots won’t have much success trying to bang out yards with LeGarrette Blount. That’s just not going to happen – not against that front. And if you agree with that, then the logical progression is that they’ll be spreading the field, with lots of short passing. With that kind of approach, Dion Lewis is then in play for a half dozen catches. So I think he’s definitely in the mix. Doug Martin is running hard and doing his thing, but let’s give them a couple of weeks to get things sorted out.
Question 3
I try not to over react to what happens in week one but there were a lot of disappointing players. Who do you think will bounce back in week 2? Megatron was only targeted 4 times no wonder Detroit lost to SD. Sure does look like Bridgewater was way overhyped or was it a pumped up SF defense? Watching TB get dismantled like that sure does make sense to start everybody you can against them this year. Finally Rbs who impressed me were Gordon, Randle, and maybe even Chris Johnson. Gordon esp. too bad Woodhead vultured those TDs.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
The Lions will get Calvin Johnson back on track. They just need to use him more. But I don’t think he’s as good as he was 3-4 years ago. I don’t think there’s a big difference between him and Golden Tate. Of their remaining 15 games, I expect Tate will be better (statistically) than Johnson in maybe six of them. At least. Bridgewater came up with a clunker, no doubt. Some of the credit there must go to a San Francisco defense is still has some ability. I expect Bridgewater wind up being an average quarterback (as in, his numbers will be better than about half of the starting quarterbacks around the league).
Question 4
I have a philosophical and context relevant fantasy question for you this week, Ian. I have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones starting for one of my squads. The WR2 spot is a bit on the weak side, but I spent some late auction dollars on Terrance Williams and James Jones to supplement Steve Smith and Roddy White. According to this week's rankings I'm seeing the two Falcon WRs in the top 5. While I generally accept your numbers as canon, I was thinking Williams (and to a lesser degree Jones) as having greater upside based on recent happenings. Would you actually recommend starting all 3 Falcons? Or is that too many dirty-birds in one nest? Should I look to pick up Terance Mathis?
NICK FRITZ (Minneapolis, MN)
It will be hard for you to pick the correct lineup, because all three of the receivers you’re leaving on the bench are talented, productive guys. With White, he has the slight advantage of Julio Jones having just had the huge game. If opponents fight like hell to take away Jones, that should open things up for White. Smith is 36, but I think he can still play. I would be very comfortable starting him. Setting the numbers aside, my gut tells me Terrance Williams is the correct play. Jones is in a diverse offense and might be red zone dependent; he would be the first one I would discard this week.
Question 5
Ian you're killing me! I am a long time subscriber and often rely heavily on your Weekly Rankings for my starting line up. Last week you had Wheaton as #11 WR and K. Wright at #33 so I changed from Wright to Wheaton. At TE, you had O. Daniels at #11 and D Allen at #15, so I changed last minute to Daniels. Those two moves cost me the game. Not blaming you, just sayin'...pick up your game Allan! Like I'm hoping my Vikings do!
COREY and HEATHER DAHLINE (Angwin, CA)
Wheaton was one of the biggest disappointments of Week 1, I thought. With Martavis Bryant and LeVeon Bell down, I thought he was a shoo-in for a busy night against a secondary with two new starting cornerbacks. And the Steelers threw for 351. But Wheaton didn’t even get his first target until late in the first half and finished with 3 catches. A very disappointing effort, and he will become waiver-wire material in Week 5 (when Bryant comes back). As for Daniels, that one didn’t quite go as I expected either. I thought I would see more tight ends in the Gary Kubiak offense. (More scoring and offense too). Sorry.
Question 6
I have just been offered Dez for Tavon Austin. The league does give points for punt return yards and TDs. Should I take it?
Joe Goins (Lake Forest, CA)
Austin looked pretty good on Sunday. He had the touchdown run, the touchdown return, and he almost caught a 46-yard touchdown. He was badly interfered with by Richard Sherman on the play, and I have no idea why it wasn’t called. It looks like he’ll catch a few more balls, and he’ll finish the year with about 400 punt return yards, for whatever that’s worth. But for fantasy purposes, I would rather have Dez, figuring if I can get him healthy for the second half of the season, he’ll be something special.
Question 7
Why do you have DeAngelo Williams rated higher this week vs. SF than Ivory vs Ind? Last week Peterson did nothing at San Francisco, while Buffalo RBs Karlos Williams and McCoy did 32 points versus Indianapolis. Is Williams a better running back than Peterson? I think I will start Ivory this week.
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
They’re in the same ballpark, I think. If you want to start Ivory, I’m fine with that. He might have a good game. But I’m not operating under the assumption that it’s a given that the Jets can come out and run the ball. There’s a big difference between playing on the road in Buffalo and playing at home on Monday night. And in some ways, the Colts were better against the run than I expected. They held LeSean McCoy under 3 yards per carry, and 41 of the 147 rushing yards were picked up by the quarterback. With Williams, you’re getting more of an every-down type back. He’s about the only guy they’ll use. With the Jets, if they fall behind I think you’ll see plenty of Bilal Powell, who’s a lot better than Ivory in passing situations. And on the 49ers game, their defense will be a lot more concerned about the passing game than they were against the Vikings. Big Ben and Antonio Brown should loosen them up. Biggest negative (I think) for Williams is that he’s not a goal-line back. For Ivory, he’s not much of a pass catcher. We’ll see.
Question 8
Very worried about my over 10.5 wins bet for the Colts. They did not look good. I got back 10% of my bet by betting on the Bills. Should I hedge and bet the Jets this week? Keep in mind I can't hedge every week since I am paying huge juice in this Colt bet and really only wanted to hedge the 6 or so hardest games since if colts win one game it doesn't mean I'll win the over under bet and I lose the hedge bet as well. The Jets in Indy was not a game I planned to bet.
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
I didn’t think the loss at Buffalo was unexpected. I was of the belief they would have problems with that defense and that running game. But I don’t think it significantly changes the way we view the Colts. They’re still going to coast through that schedule, with maybe 10 wins against the South Divisions (6 inside the division, and 4 against the NFC South). I don’t see the Jets as likely to make a good run at them on Monday night.
Question 9
I've got the first waiver move. I need a WR. Six points or TDs, no PPR and 1 point per 20 yds. I can choose from Garcon, James Jones, Moncrief, Tyler Lockett. Your thoughts?
Phil Eichorn (Rocky River, OH)
For this week, T.Y. Hilton most likely is sitting out, so Moncrief is the clear No. 1. For the rest of the season, I think Jones makes the most sense. He and Aaron Rodgers have a rapport, so I think they’ll combine on a healthy number of touchdowns. The scoring format, with 6 points for touchdowns, is favorable for Jones. Only if it was PPR would Garcon get into the short-term discussion.
Question 10
I would like to pick up either Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Jordan Reed as WR/TE depth. Our league combines WR/TE into three start positions. I currently have Julio Jones, Devante Adams, and Terrance Williams slated to start this week. My league does a $100 FAB. Which player would you target and at what price range? I am dropping Dwayne Bowe.
Ryan Cetnarowski (Pittsburgh, PA)
With Jones-Adams-Williams, you are set for starters. So Seferian-Jenkins and Reed, you would just be looking at depth players, waiting for injuries and bye weeks. I wouldn’t spend more than $1 on either of them. I would be more inclined to use that roster spot on a high-upside handcuff running back (if available). Jones is supposedly a little dinged right now. Maybe instead of the tight ends, you look at Leonard Hankerson. If Jones ends up getting hurt and missing games, I would rather replace him with Hankerson than either Reed or Seferian-Jenkins. As far as the two guys, I will go Reed. I like the volume of passes he’s caught when Cousins has been at quarterback. But he got dinged in practice yesterday, so status must be evaluated.
Question 11
Our League drafted on the morning of the 5th and I used your Thursday Sept. 3rd rankings. I picked up B. LaFell and D. Herron who had decent rankings. After the dust cleared from all the Roster cuts, Herron's on IR and LaFell is on PUP and their fantasy values are in the toilet. Is the available intel on injured players trying to make NFL Rosters that bad and why would teams wait until the final cut day to assign these injured players?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Herron hurt his shoulder in the final preseason game. That was played on the evening of Thursday, September 3. With Brandon LaFell, he was playing effectively last time we saw him, in the Super Bowl. Then he underwent a foot surgery in the offseason. When camp open, he wasn’t practicing, but there was no timetable on how much time he might miss or when he might return. He didn’t play in any of the preseason games, but Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski were also held out of all of those games (and they looked just fine last Thursday). I believe Edelman also didn’t practice much of all in August. Gronkowski, I’m not sure. There were a couple of reports late in the month with beat reporters saying they weren’t sure if LaFell would be ready at the start of the season. When healthy and looking like a full-season player, I had him graded as one of the top-20 wide receivers. When his health situation became more of a question mark, I downgraded him to 13 projected games (instead of 16), dropping him down to 43rd among wide receivers on the Sept. 3 product. Had I known he was definitely out, I would have moved him lower, but I don’t think 43rd is too far off the mark. Assuming he comes back healthy for the final 10 games, he’ll be a solid producer during that time.
Question 12
Wild card spot available for rest of year. best potential. RB Michael Dallas, WR agholor.
BILL WOLF (Wamego, KS)
I’ll go Agholor. He underachieved on Monday night, but he played a lot and I think he’ll come around. Michael is more of just a stab in the dark.
Question 13
This week I see Roddy White in the top 10 and I'm a Julio owner. I joined the club, feels great! As a Julio owner would you start Roddy at the #2 wr spot over Jordan Matthews? I can flex Matthews over Abdullah but my tendency has always been to avoid 2 wideouts on the same team unless it's like Rodgers to Jordy/Cobb or something like that. Also, do you go on gut feeling when trying to decide to flex the 20ish ranked wr versus an rb? Basically does the #20 rb tend to outperform the #20 ranked wideout? Thanks! Love the product.
Ryan Taft (Damascus, OR)
I’m not opposed to starting both Jones and White, but Jordan Matthews is a hell of a player. With the kind of numbers he put up on Monday night, I’d most likely start him over Roddy White. In regards to flex players, best to compare them using the custom stats feature at the website. You enter in your scoring system, and then every time any product is released (whether it’s the season-long rankings on Tuesday or the week-specific rankings on Wed/Fri, you can go in and see what the projections say. There’s also the Excel stat download, where you can see the exact stat forecast for each player.
Question 14
i have charles,i was offered knile davis and watkins for williams(dallas) and c michael.
Kevin Toland (South Boston, MA)
Sold. Watkins got shut out on opening day, but he can still be better than Williams (maybe a lot better). And if you’re holding Charles, Knile Davis is solid gold in comparision with Christine Michael.
Question 15
As a J. Charles owner, would you trade L. Blount for K. Davis? How valuable is it to have the backup locked in, just in case? My other RBs are Ingram, Ivory, Foster, F. Jackson, and a few others.
ANDREW DAMIANI (WESTFIELD, IN)
I would make the trade. Running backs get injured, and if Charles goes down, Davis would be a top-5 back while filling in. Blount is a starting running back, but he’s never going to get on the field for your team. You have too many other good backs.
Question 16
What can you tell about the Gronk fumble? In our IDP league, that counts, and thus far, it hasn't? Thanks!
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
Dion Lewis fumbled the ball. Gronkowski recovered it. Maybe in your IDP, players only get credit for recovering fumbles of opponents? There seems to be a difference between recovering the fumble of an opponent (think of what Brandon Marshall pulled off against the Browns) and falling on the ball when your quarterback drops a shotgun snap.
Question 17
In my main league, I drew the #1 pick. In an earlier question, you said that in 6 pt passing TD leagues, Luck & Rodgers are no-brainer #1 & #2 picks. You have often advocated trading down for more early picks. So, I traded my #1 overall & my 9th round pick (#97 overall) for the #11 overall & his 5th rounder (#58 overall.) Rodgers was there at #11 (score) and I got Jarvis Landry with that extra 5th rd pick. Just wanted to say thanks, I never would have considered such a move before!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I think you’ll be very happy with Landry. I think he will catch 100-plus balls.
Question 18
I'm im a 10 team PPR league. 2 rb, 3 wr, flex. I'm a huge Julio fan this year. The owner that has him is ridiculously weak at rb (Martin is his #1) and strong at wr. I have Forte, Miller, Foster, Mathews, Spiller and wrs are Dez, Hopkins, Keenan Allen, John Brown, Decker. I think I could take advantage of his weakness to get Julio. Looking at sending him Miller and Allen for Julio and Martin or Ivory. Not sure I want to send much more than this. Is this as far as you would go or would you be willing to change Allen to Hopkins to get the deal done? Or just stand pat and wait for Foster to get back before making a deal?
Troy Smith (Mobile, AL)
Any team that makes your team better I’m in favor of. But a tough time to try and swing a deal for Julio, with him coming off the monster game on Monday night.
Question 19
In a TD-only league, with 4pts that double at 50 and triple at 75, I cannot make up my mind. I can play 5 of these 6 wr. Adams and Jones GB, Landry MIA, Brown ARI, Jones, ATL, and Coleman NO. Which one should I leave out?
DEAN ERICKSON (Vancouver, WA)
Did I just get asked if Julio Jones should be one of your five starting wide receivers? Uh … yes. It may change in future weeks, but for now I would tend to leave Coleman on the bench.