Every week we get these little reminders about getting too sure of yourself. Are the Vikings really better than the Packers now? Is it really time to just kick Mason Crosby to the curb? Is your Daily lineup with Devonta Freeman and Charcandrick West really as good as you think it is? Perhaps your rude awakenings were similar to mine, or maybe they happened to your opponent. Sometimes luck goes the other way.

Colts at Falcons: Well at least if you started Matt Ryan this week, he and his 3 TDs didn't let you down. Granted two of them went to the fullback, which helps no one but Ryan owners, but Julio Jones had a pretty good day. Nearly hauled in a last-second reception that would have given them a shot at the tying field goal, too. That said, the story of this game was Devonta Freeman suffering a concussion, Tevin Coleman disappointing, and a couple of missed throws and poor red-zone (and own end-zone) decisions by Ryan, who should probably have thrown 4-5 TDs and got a win. ... Matt Hasselbeck, all he does is win. Made some mistakes, but he's 3-0 now. A couple of touchdowns for Ahmad Bradshaw, little shovel pass near the goal line and then a little flip. That's all he did last year before getting hurt, too, but he's suddenly fantasy-viable. Crummy game for all the wide receivers, not terribly surprising. About 213 yards; that's about what was to be expected from Hasselbeck. Falcon lose another eminently winnable game.

Rams at Ravens: Speaking of losing winnable games, the Rams just gave this game away. This is why teams are wary of benching starting quarterbacks, because what do you do when you bench a guy and his replacement is worse? That was Case Keenum. ... Big news here is that Justin Forsett broke his arm and Joe Flacco tore his ACL. Baltimore's snake-bit season continues, though at least they got a win, which is a dubious blessing at this point. Pick up Javorious Allen if he's available, but you knew that.

Washington at Panthers: Boom. Striking difference between Washington at home (4-1) and on the road (0-5). Their defense just can't seem to stop anyone away from home, while Kirk Cousins forgets how to play. Carolina is really good. Jonathan Stewart looks fantastic right now, Cam Newton is playing out of his mind. Ted Ginn even looks legitimate. If Carolina can beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, I actually think they're going to go 16-0. Their other five games are the Giants once and the NFC South four times. ... Alfred Morris hurt, Matt Jones lost another fumble and proceeded to lose some snaps. I don't know who will benefit from facing the Giants' iffy run defense on Sunday, but Jones might be missing his chance.

Broncos at Bears: So Brock Osweiler looked pretty good in this game; better than I anticipated. It helps that the Bears don't have much of a pass rush and don't cover very well; the long touchdown to Demaryius Thomas, for example, was just an easy little throw to a wide-open receiver who then made a bunch of guys miss. But Denver actually controlled this game for much of it and could have won more easily. There was a fourth-down play near the goal line where Ronnie Hillman was on his way in to the end zone when he got tripped up in the backfield...by Osweiler.

Raiders at Lions: Kind of misread this game I guess. I expected a lot more out of Oakland's offense, and everything in their season and the Lions season suggested they'd do a lot more. Instead Derek Carr threw no touchdowns, Latavius Murray only salvaged a serviceable day by scoring, and Matthew Stafford had to rush for a touchdown to have a good day. Note however that Stafford had a perfect throw to Eric Ebron that should have been a touchdown, but Ebron let it clank off his hands in the end zone. Detroit hosts Philadelphia on Thanksgiving and after the clunker the Eagles put up yesterday, hard to know what to expect. Probably won't be pretty, though.

Jets at Texans: So Houston's defense has started to play pretty well, and the Jets have really slipped on defense. DeAndre Hopkins caught one of his touchdowns when Darrelle Revis was sidelined with an injury, but the other he flat out beat Revis Island downfield for a long touchdown. Can't cover him with one player, no matter who that player is. He's awesome. ... Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker (ultimately) and Bilal Powell as a receiver got you decent numbers, but the limitations in New York's offense are becoming apparently. Get a lead on the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick can be pressured into mistakes. Not exactly a pretty game for T.J. Yates, but Hopkins can apparently make a passing game look good all by his lonesome.

Cowboys at Dolphins: Tony Romo returns, and the Cowboys have to be thinking about what might have been. The NFC East is clearly there for the taking, and Dallas sits at 3-7 with its three wins all started by Romo. Suddenly Dez Bryant looks great, Terrance Williams looks like a viable starter, and Darren McFadden (who did lose some carries to the much-traveled Robert Turbin) is pounding through the line for extra yards. It all looks better for Dallas with Romo in there. Imagine if a sub-.500 team wins the AFC South and the NFC East. Not impossible. ... Nothing of note to say on the Dolphins except the Dallas defense has played pretty well all season and it continued in this game.

Bucs at Eagles: If there's a tougher team to figure out than the Eagles, I don't know what it is. They seemed to have a win in hand against the Dolphins last week, and they proceeded to blow that one and then totally get worked over by Doug Martin (200-plus rushing yards) and Jameis Winston (5 TDs). Ironic that Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson had just so-so numbers, with guys nobody started like Cameron Brate, Russell Shepard and Charles Sims scoring. Basically Philadelphia didn't cover anybody. ... Pregame talk about Mark Sanchez maybe winning starting job in Philly. Uh, no. Three bad interceptions for him. Not that Bradford has played well, but...

Kansas City at Chargers: I benched a lot of Chargers this week. Not quite enough (the correct answer would have been all of them), but it's not surprising the injuries and losses all caught up to them against a team that's really playing good football right now. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. Chargers might just be hands-off most of the rest of the way, too. ... Charcandrick West left with a hamstring injury, costing him a huge day and giving it to Spencer Ware. Travis Kelce had an OK PPR game but had a touchdown overturned on replay; he couldn't hold onto it. Jeremy Maclin had a quiet game. Basically the Kansas City players who could/should have had huge games didn't. How it goes sometimes.

Packers at Vikings: Guess I picked the wrong week to cut Mason Crosby. The fact that I did it for Blair Walsh, which made for a ridiculous 22-point swing in one league, is just insult to injury. Maybe the Vikings were a little too full of themselves before this game? Dunno, but Green Bay was obviously better. James Jones had a drop or two early, but finished strong, including an impressive touchdown grab. It's on in the NFC North, let's just pencil in Minnesota at Green Bay for that Sunday Night game in Week 17. Unless it's Giants-Eagles. ... Eddie Lacy was better than James Starks in this game. So who starts against Chicago Thursday night? In fantasy lineups, maybe both. ... Wrong week to cut Kyle Rudolph, too.

49ers at Seahawks: Huge game for Thomas Rawls; this is why it's worth using a roster spot on your top running back's handcuff. Because sometimes it works out really well. Is there anything else to say about this game? Well, the wrong tight end (Vance McDonald) had a big game for San Francisco. I guess the 49ers were kind of in this game at various points, but it was never really in doubt. This week we'll find out if Rawls will get another start with Lynch possibly needing sports hernia surgery.

Bengals at Cardinals: I actually think the Bengals looked OK in this game; some miscues, certainly, but that's a really tough Cardinals team. Much better outing than Monday against the Texans, anyway. I still think Cincinnati emerges in the AFC North. Disappointing outing, again, for A.J. Green. ... Carson Palmer is having quite a year. Ask the average NFL fan who the MVP is and he says Tom Brady, but I wonder how much (little?) support Brady gets in actual voting, given the whole controversy. Anyway, good Cardinals team.

Monday, Monday: Last week Rex Ryan said the Patriots want to bury him. Well, they're not alone. Some people just talk too much. In any case, we've seen this matchup lots of times over the years and no matter how good a defense the Bills bring to this battle, it doesn't seem to be good enough. Patriots 31, Bills 17.