Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In the Week 14 edition: How will the Saints fill the sizable void left by Mark Ingram? Will the Patriots baby Gronkowski? Is it time for the Eagles to turn to Ryan Mathews? And more.
Question 1
I'm sure this will be addressed in the Friday supplement, but about 30 minutes after the Wednesday Weekly update, Ingram goes on IR, which is a significant hit to any fantasy team who's got him. Common question will be where do you see the value of Spiller and Hightower as viable fill-ins. I've snagged Spiller in my standard league but am leaning towards Ryan Mathews now, or possibly Lacy. I've got Martin and Draughn as my other 2 RBs. There are also some pretty key QBs available in my league. I've got Dalton and Stafford already. I dropped Golden Tate to pick up Winston and am considering starting him this week over Dalton. I'm trying to decide if I should drop Stafford to pick up Tyrod Taylor. Who do you value more between those guys? Stafford appears to have a fairly decent schedule the next few weeks, but so does Taylor (I think).
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
The Saints don’t have a plug-in guy. That is, Mark Ingram is averaging 64 rushing and 34 receiving yards, with 6 TDs in 12 games. They’re not going to get that kind of production from C.J. Spiller or Tim Hightower. With Spiller, there’s something about his blocking, running or effort they don’t like. In the offseason, he signed a contract that was almost identical to Ingram’s (four years, $16 million), but he’s hardly played recently. He might have chronic knee problems. I recall one game this year where they were icing his knee between series. With Hightower, I’m surprised he’s even on a roster. He’s been out of the league since 2011. He was a fifth- or sixth-round pick way back when, and he worked his way onto the field with Arizona by always running hard. He’ll put his head down and try to run over people. But he doesn’t have much elusiveness or speed, and they eventually dished him off to Washington. He tore his ACL in 2011. He’s 29 now. I was surprised when the Saints brought him to camp this year. He didn’t do much in the preseason, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. They cut him, and no other teams were interested in him. He got back on the roster when Khiry Robinson landed on injured reserve, and here we are. Recall that New Orleans has already been without Ingram once this year. He missed much of the Washington games. When he was out, they had Spiller and Hightower share time. I just re-watched that game, and neither was impressive. Spiller carried 8 times for 24 yards, with 2 catches for 10 yards. Didn’t seem to be anything special. Hightower didn’t play as much, but in the final 3 minutes (with the Saints hopelessly behind) they gave Hightower the ball 6 straight times to run out the clock, and he had runs of 9, 8 and 9 yards in there against a half-speed defense. Setting aside that game-ending drive, Hightower has carried 6 times for 14 yards this year, with no receptions. So for this game on Sunday, I’m guessing they’ll split the running work pretty evenly, with neither doing too much. Sean Payton says they’ll also work in Marcus Murphy, who’s been mostly just a kick returner so far. Tampa Bay is really good against the run. In the passing game, I think Spiller is better, but not necessarily by a ton. Hightower caught 63 passes for Arizona back in 2009. If he’s better in pass protection, he might play more than Spiller in this game. That’s an important role. When Ingram was playing almost full time, Payton said it was because he was their best back in protection. In this kind of game, with the running game likely doing little, I would bet that Spiller, Hightower or both will finish with 25-plus receiving yards, so they have some value in PPR. Spiller had that nice 80-yard touchdown catch against Dallas earlier in the year. As for your quarterbacks, Taylor is doing a good job running around. He’s really quick, and he’s over the knee injury that was hurting him earlier in the year. I saw the elite-level running ability against Houston, and Taylor has gone over 40 rushing yards in a lot of games. But looking at the schedule, I believe you’re set with Winston, Stafford and Dalton.
Question 2
You've got Ryan Matthews ranked 5th in the custom rankings, but also say it's guesswork regarding how the Eagles will use their backs this week. I have Latavius Murray, who is ranked 29th, but against a much tougher Denver D. DeMarco Murray complained after last week’s game about his touches. He has been horrible, but a lot of times the squeaky wheel gets greased. Latavius Murray will be a full time back while I'm concerned about how many touches Mathews will get. I haven't seen anything through the NFL or Eagles to say Murray has been benched or anything along those lines. Just wondering if you're going on a hunch or do you have some type of inside info?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
I don’t have any inside info. I’m just trying to connect the dots. Murray has been largely ineffective all year. He’s been their worst back, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. They finally appeared to give up on him last week. He hardly played at New England last week, finishing with fewer carries than Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner. He was also ineffective in that game, with a 19-yard run but his other 7 carries going for only 5 yards. Now they’ve got Mathews coming back, and he’s been their most effective runner all year, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If the Eagles are going to separate from that 5-7 pack in the NFC East, I think it will be with Mathews leading the way. I believe they’ll probably use three backs this week, and it will be Mathews as their clear No. 1 guy. I’m guessing he’ll probably get about half of the playing time back there, and that (in my eyes) makes him way better this week than either of the Murrays.
Question 3
How much do you see Gronk playing once he returns? Will they rest him last few games?
MARK RYAN (Pittsford, NY)
I imagine when he’s ready, he’ll be out there in his regular role. He’s a tight end, and one who often lines up away from the line of scrimmage. This isn’t like Earl Campbell or Chris Ivory, where you have a violent running back who’s involved in a big collision on every play. My primary concern is that Gronkowski might be one of those guys who wants to make sure he’s 100 percent healthy before stepping back on the field. (And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.) His family has gotten involved in some of his injuries, releasing a statement after his injury in Denver. When Gronkowski was coming back from an elbow surgery in 2013, recall, there was the will-he, won’t-he dance for the first third of the season. The team didn’t place him on the PUP List, making it look likely he would return in September. Then he was listed as questionable five games in a row (and being a limited participant in practice all of those week) but he didn’t actually play against an opponent until they played the Jets in their seventh game. I’m guessing, but I don’t think Gronkowski is one of those guys who’ll be super eager to tape it up and hurry back for a regular-season game of limited value. As far as resting players, Bill Belichick stays away from that more than most coaches. They had the Wes Welker catastrophe back in 2009, when he tore his ACL in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Texans. That might have softened Belichick’s thinking some. I will look into the area more exactly if necessary, but I believe they’ve had meaningless games a few times in recent years. I don’t think Belichick has ever rested anyone in Weeks 15-16. In that final game, I think you’ll see him hold out some guys for a quarter or a half. A healthy Gronkowski sat out in Week 17 last year.
Question 4
Looking at a PPR carry over for next year? Benjamin or Edelman? Leaning toward Benjamin. Thoughts?
Craig Gray (Bemidji, MN)
Benjamin is younger, which you can factor in if you want to consider 2017-2019. But in PPR, I really like the guys who plunk out 6-8 catches every week. Benjamin will never be one of those guys. Edelman is, and I’m confident he’ll be in that role again in 2016.
Question 5
With the late-breaking news on Brandin Cooks racking my lineup, would you roll with Funchess, Hartline, or Coleman to replace him? TD-only league. Also, how much does the loss of Cooks to NO's offense elevate the value of Tampa's Defense? Enough to warrant picking them up over my current Texans D? Thanks as always for the input.
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
The 49ers have been remarkably awful in most of their road games, while Johnny Manziel was surprisingly decent in his game at Pittsburgh. He also played pretty well for a quarter against the Bengals. So I’m thinking Hartline looks like the best option of those three. For the defenses, I would roll with the Bucs rather than the Texans.
Question 6
I have had a dilemma with my #2 RB. I've been struggling with Vereen and Jennings. I have rotated them all season, primarily playing Shane. I managed to have a 10-3 record. Heading into the playoffs, should I continue to play Vereen in week 14 or should I change all together and play Polk this week? Don't want to get to cute.
DAVID MARCUS (GLENMOORE, PA)
I’m not crazy about any of those guys. With Polk, he played his best game of the season last week. They started using him more at Buffalo. But that doesn’t guarantee they’ll use him extensively again this week, and they haven’t made much of an effort to tap into his ability as a pass catcher. They’re playing against one of the league’s better run defenses. With the Giants, they’re facing one of the worst run defenses, but they’ve been using all four of their running backs recently – Jennings, Vereen, Andre Williams and Orleans Darkwa. On my board, I’ve got all three of your backs around 40th at their position.
Question 7
What's the best strategy in determining which kicker makes the best play in weeks 15-16? Do you put more stock in who's been getting and converting the most FG/XP attempts over the last few weeks, or is it better to look at kicking points allowed by the opponent? And of course, potential of bad weather games is a factor. I've been using McManus most of the year, but his attempts have slowed to a crawl. Anyone jumping out as great options in those playoff weeks?
MARK CHRISTIE (Fairport, NY)
I tend to look at kicking points allowed by offenses and defenses, especially recently. And you look at those numbers with an eye on who they’re playing. No shame, for example, in a defense letting Graham Gano know in 10 points in Charlotte. McManus has been down recently, but I think he’ll be fine for Week 14. Denver is at home, and I think they’ll win pretty easily. Opponent is Oakland, and only one team has allowed more kicking points. He knocked in 10 points in the earlier meeting.
Question 8
What's the scoring system like in your most competitive league? I am planning my own "experts" league, which will have guys I've played against in different leagues who also won championships. You've seen some interesting scoring systems over the years, and I'd like to hear your input. Some highlights I am considering: 6 points passing touchdowns for QBs, otherwise mostly standard scoring (not PPR). A week-long email snake draft (wouldn't an auction would take too long via email?). A bidding system for waivers. Best-ball format. At the end of the regular season, the top two total point scorers will get an extra win added to their record. This helps to counterbalance luck while not eliminating it completely. It will change the fortunes of up to 4 teams.
Theodore Gaskell (Jacksonville, FL)
Quarterbacks are the most important players in the NFL game, so it seems to make sense to make sure they’re not afterthoughts in the fantasy version. Too often that seems to be the case with 4-point touchdown passes. The best-ball format is best utilized when it’s a secondary league, where you don’t want to ask owners to make waiver moves and submit lineups. Auctions are good, but they can’t be done by email – you would need a website.
Question 9
With Bennett now on IR I only have Vance McDonald for the TE spot. I could start four WR with one RB, either Jeremy Hill or Abdullah for a run and shoot option. I could start Cobb, Sanders and Crabtree along with LaFell or Snead. LaFell has a late start so if Snead is inactive again my decision is made for me. If Snead starts at TB would he be the better play? Or, do I start Hill and Abdullah with McDonald, Cobb and Sanders? Playoffs and a first-round bye are on the line.
david hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Things might be falling into place nicely for your team. The Saints could have to go without Brandin Cooks, and that would elevate Willie Snead into a starter-quality player for you. I also wouldn’t rule out Vance McDonald. I believe he’ll play, and he has an outstanding matchup (at Cleveland). McDonald was very productive in Weeks 11-12 before suffering a concussion early in the game at Chicago.
Question 10
Hey Ian, brutal year for me in a couple of leagues. However, looking good in one lucrative one, at least. Heading into the playoffs, I was counting on Stafford & Megatron to be playing all out; with that gut-punch loss on Thursday, should I be worried about effort, now that they're playing for pride? I have Tyrod & Luck as my other 2 QBs, so I might be OK there, but at WR, I've got Megatron, John Brown & LaFell. That's it (16 man rosters.) I can drop a DST streamer & bid on any of the following for the playoffs, if you could rank these in order (non-ppr), it would be GREATLY appreciated: Ginn, M. Jones, Wheaton, Boldin, Shorts, T. Williams, Kearse, S. Roberts, D. Adams, Cotchery. Thank you sir & good luck in your playoff run!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I don’t think any of those guys stand out as great waiver options. But I would start Anquan Boldin or Marvin Jones over LaFell. Boldin is playing against the defensively challenged Browns, and he’s gotten a little boost from the quarterback switch to Blaine Gabbert. Boldin had 93 yards in both Week 11 and Week 12.
Question 11
Great year so far -- earned a bye in the playoffs so I can focus now on weeks 15 and 16 only. My big weaknesses are at QB and WR, and I'll be trolling the WW (I've got Luck at QB with Manning backing up, and only two WR on roster right now - Cobb and Richardson). Here is my issue - I've got a stable of RB's that I'll have to thin out to build depth for week 15/16 -- and I'm struggling on who to cut. At a minimum, I'm going to probably have to hunt the WW for a WR2 -- assuming I may need to bench Cobb or Richardson (unless they are pretty much waiver wire fodder at this point). I don't have any bench left at QB, TE , D, or K. Which of the following do I cut? D Freeman, J. Hill, Draughn, Buck Allen, L. Murray, S. Ware. To complicate things further, we are in a Keeper league where one of these guys is going to be my 5th round pick next year (most likely Freeman). I start 3 each week and am in a typical non-PPR performance league. Any thoughts on the best guy (or two) that I should drop, or do you see a starting role for each of these guys somewhere in the week 15/16 playoff scenario?
Charles Mobraten (Woodside, CA)
I don’t know who “Richardson” is. Trent Richardson and Paul Richardson are the only two I can think of, and I doubt it’s either of those. With running backs, I don’t think your situation is that sticky. Draughn has had a nice run with the 49ers, and I really like him this week at Cleveland, but I can’t imagine you would start him in Week 15 or 16, and I don’t think you need to worry too much about him being a valuable handcuff in 2016. He could go. With Spencer Ware, you’re talking about the second back in Kansas City (#3 nin 2016). With him, the value is that if Charcandrick West gets hurt or starts fumbling, Ware could have value in this closing weeks, given Kansas City’s easy schedule. Allen is at least a body for the Ravens (so he’s kind of similar to Draughn) but neither of his remaining games looks very promising. He has a little more 2016 potential than Ware or Draughn, so would be nice to keep him around.
Question 12
I've clinched a playoff spot despite disappointing production from the kicker position (Lambo, Sturgis). Am looking to upgrade, but the pickings are slim: Hopkins, Myers, Prater, Carpenter, Barth, Succop, Franks, Bullock, Novak, Dawson, Hocker, Forbath, Shayne Graham (if Bryant's still out). Which one looks best to you? FYI, my league values kicker scoring very highly -- a 30-yard field goal is worth as much as a passing or receiving TD.
eric pryne (Vashon, WA)
I’d dump both Lambo and Sturgis. I think if you replace them with a pairing of Barth, Myers and Prater (two of those three) that will get the job done for you.
Question 13
Playoff lineup question: I need to fill two spots at WR, ppr and TDs over 39 yards are worth 9 points. I need to start two. Julio, Jarvis, Mike Evans or Cooks. I heard today about Cook's head thing, which obviously I will monitor. I don't want to overthink it with Julio. You're opinion is valued and trusted with me. Thanks for your help, and another glorious season!
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
That’s a lot of talent. In a PPR format, Julio Jones is in there every week. Even with the team struggling, he keeps catching 8-plus balls every game. Cooks has really heated up recently. If he winds up being cleared and active, I think he’s the other starter. The other two guys, however, aren’t far behind. Jarvis Landry is another one of those slot-type receivers who can catch a ton of passes. Only concern is that they switched offensive coordinators last week, and they might be trying to rely more on the run now. He put up a clunker against Baltimore. With Evans, he doesn’t catch as many passes but is probably the most likely of this group to score. He’s got by far the best matchup of this group – at home against the Saints.
Question 14
5-way playoff fight for 2 more spots. RB situation a bit sticky, and my WRs are not exactly healthy. RBs: DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Javorius Allen, and Ronnie Hillman. WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Allen Hurns, Rishard Matthews, Marvin Jones. 2 rbs, 2 wrs & w/r flex. How should I play this last week?
Cory Hartwigsen ()
Matthews I think is out for the year. Murray and Lacy hardly played last week; I don’t think you can count on either of those guys playing even half of the time for their teams. That leaves five guys, so I guess those are the five you start.