Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is the Josh Norman Factor enough that you should avoid starting Brandin Cooks? Exactly how bad are Davante Adams hands? And what do Mark Ingram, Danny Amendola and Delanie Walker have in common?
Question 1
I'm a bit confused about the rankings. My custom rankings have Brandin Cooks ranked 18th, but in the weekly you say you're lowering him based on the match up with Josh Norman. My other options are DeSean Jackson or Vincent Jackson, who are both ranked lower. The over/under for the Carolina/New Orleans games is the highest of the week. Would you just roll with Cooks or take a flier on DeSean? Only 2 receptions last week scares me a bit in regards to Jackson.
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
With DeSean Jackson, you’re hoping for a big play. He’s healthy, and he’s hit a couple of those the last two weeks, against the Panthers and Giants. He’s one of the best deep threats in the league. He doesn’t catch a lot of balls, however. They don’t use him on many short routes. In his last three games, he’s caught 2 passes against New Orleans, 5 passes against Carolina and 2 passes against New York. He’s at home on Monday night against a 3-8 team, but I have considerable respect for the Dallas defense. It’s a group that’s allowed only 9 TDs in its last six games. With Cooks, he’ll see a lot of Josh Norman, and that’s a downer. You saw the chart in the Weekly, showing the lesser numbers that No. 1 elite receivers have put up against Carolina. But Cooks is a talented player, and they’ll do some things to get him open. Or maybe he blows by Norman for a long touchdown; he has that kind of speed. In the earlier meeting, Cooks caught 7 passes for 79 yards. They threw to him eight times, and only 3 of those plays was Norman on him. I just re-watched those plays. He caught 3 underneath balls in the first quarter – an 8-yard slant out of the slot, with linebacker Thomas Davis in coverage. A 7-yard slant on Norman. And a 10-yard out route with nickelback Bene Benwikere covering. They didn’t throw him any balls in the second or third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they somehow got him on rookie linebacker Shaq Thompson for 13 yards. Then Cooks saw half of his balls right at the end of the game. He caught a 16-yard curl down the middle of the field against Norman at the 2-minute warning. On the next play, they got him in the slot against Benwikere and it went for 15 yards. Then, with 1:17 left came the key play of the game, with the Saints on the 23 and facing third-and-6, trailing 27-22. They were figuring (I think) Norman would try to jump the route and prevent the first down. They were hoping Norman would guard against a first down. So plan was to run Cooks into that area, then have him accelerate down the sideline for the game-winning touchdown. But Norman hung with him pretty well, the ball was slightly underthrown, and Norman made an acrobatic leaping interception. The Saints got the ball back with 10 seconds left and completed a 10-yard pass to Cooks, with Charles Tillman playing soft coverage in a prevent defense. So where does that leave us? Norman is a really good corner. He’s been particularly good against T.Y. Hilton and Dez Bryant this year. But Cooks is a great receiver and has been hot, and he won’t necessarily be covered by Norman on every play. I think it makes sense to rank Cooks lower than usual, but I’m not interested in plugging him some unproven nobody just because he’s a better matchup.
Question 2
Which WRs have the worst catch pct and yards/target in the NFL? My unofficial guesses would be Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Harry Douglas, Martavis Bryant, and maybe even Odell Beckham Jr. Adams would be a great baseball player as he seems to catch about a third of the passes Rodgers throws toward him!
peter chen (Stanford, CA)
Adams has been remarkably bad. He had caught only 15 of 35 passes in Weeks 10-12. Rebounded with a more serviceable effort last night. But among players with at least 50 targets, there are nine that so far have a worse catch rate. Jordan Cameron and Ted Ginn Jr. are tied for last, at under 46 percent. (Cameron is the only non wide receiver in the bottom 20). Two franchise receivers are next, at 46 percent each: Dez Bryant and Mike Evans. Then comes Kenny Britt (48%), Andre Johnson (49%), Martavis Bryant (49%). T.Y. Hilton and Allen Robinson are both around 50 percent. Note that Brandon LaFell is actually below all of those guys, at under 45 percent completions, but he doesn’t have 50 targets. Just outside the bottom 10, the most notable names I see are Vincent Jackson (51%), James Jones (52%) and Mike Wallace (54%). With catch percentage, it discriminates against guys running the deeper, more difficult routes. A guy catching 1 of 4 passes, with 50-yard bomb, after all, is arguably better than a player catching all 4 passes thrown his way, if they’re 8-yard dumpoff balls. So if we instead look at yards per target, the league’s least effective pass catcher has been Darren Sproles, down at 4.4 yards per target. Davante Adams comes in next, down at 4.8. There are only three other wide receivers in the bottom 10, Dez Bryant (5.6), Tavon Austin (5.6) and Brian Hartline (5.9). Half of the bottom 10 is made up of tight ends. Jordan Cameron (5.5), Julius Thomas (5.5), Martellus Bennett (5.5), Kyle Rudolph (6.0) and Coby Fleener (6.1). There are six wide receivers in the next 10: Golden Tate, Andre Johnson, Mike Wallace, Robert Woods and Pierre Garcon. John Brown and Rishard Matthews have statistically been the league’s most effective wide receivers. Danny Amendola and Angry Doug Baldwin have caught the highest percentage of passes. Delanie Walker has caught the highest percentage of passes by a tight end, and Mark Ingram and Duke Johnson have the highest percentages by running backs.
Question 3
Is Dez Bryant a start this week with a fantasy football playoff spot on the line, or do you go Hillman? Ride Minnesota D or bad week?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I’ve got Hillman higher than Bryant. Now that they’ve got Osweiler at quarterback, that running game is coming alive, with 170-plus yards two weeks in a row. They’re playing San Diego, which has struggled against the run recently. I think C.J. Anderson will be their most productive back, but I think there will be enough production that Hillman could still be pretty good. And he’s fast enough to potentially bust a long one. For whatever it’s worth, Hillman played his college ball at San Diego State. With Dallas, the offense has been pretty dysfunctional without Tony Romo – 7 touchdowns in their last six non-Romo games. As for Minnesota, the sacks looks good. That’s a defense with some pass rush, while the Seahawks have allowed more sacks than every team except Cleveland. But it grades out poorly for takeaways. Only four teams have lost fewer turnovers than the Seahawks.
Question 4
You da man again this year. I'm long timer having his best year (11 wins one loss) in standard 12 team league due to Value-timed drafting of Ivory, Murray, Fitzgerald, Woodhead and Big Ben. I've survived with Cooks and Hilton and Gates but this talent is eroding . I've fortunately added D.Williams and Rawls. I've now clinched the regular season and bye for Week 14 and am setting up for Week 15. My question : are there any hidden gems on the waiver wire who might provide a good fresh body for Weeks 15-16? Favorable matchup are vs N.O., S.D. and Balt of course.
Gary Gesnaldo (Naples, FL)
Never hurts to look at kickers and defenses. They’re players too. I’m not crazy about Roethlisberger’s games: Denver and at Baltimore. Maybe you start him in both of those weeks, but it doesn’t hurt to see what else is available on the waiver wire. In Week 15 Seattle is hosting Cleveland, so I think Rawls could very easily be a top-3 fantasy back that week.