Some guys are in mini fantasy competitions that involve making decisions or setting lineups, so I will preview Super Bowl 50 just the same as if it were one of the 256 regular-season games. There are not enough players to merit putting together a full-blown “Fantasy Index Weekly”, but I will compile a breakdown for each team. I’m posting the Broncos today, and tomorrow I’ll do the Panthers.

Denver Broncos:

Peyton Manning is one of the top few players of all-time, and it would be neat to see him conclude his career with a second championship. But it doesn’t seem particularly likely. Both of these teams have good defenses, allowing 18-19 points per game. The difference is with the offenses. Carolina averages 10 more points per game. For the Broncos to win this game, they’re going to have to come up with more offense than usual, and that doesn’t look likely. The Panthers on defense have allowed 37 touchdowns; about 2 per game. Denver’s offense, on the other hand, has scored only 35 TDs (just under 2 per week). They’ve scored 3 TDs in only three of the 11 games Manning has started. In Manning’s 10 complete games, the offense has scored only 17 touchdowns. That’s not just touchdown passes, but also on the ground (12 TD passes and 5 TD runs in those games). So very unlikely that now, after sputtering and game-managing for essentially the entire season, he turns the clock back to 2004, cranking up 320 yards and 3 TDs. Manning is dealing with severe limitations. At this point, he’s the least mobile quarterback in the league, and he’s also probably got the weakest arm. He’s finished under 200 yards in more games (3) than he’s gone over 300 (2). He could match up particularly poorly against this group. The Panthers seem to have the best and most active pair of defensive tackles in the league right now, with Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei, and they’ll be working against a lesser offensive line. No doubt on many plays they’ll be crushing the pocket, making it tough for Manning to consistently step into his throws. He’s not mobile enough to get outside and re-set his feet. It could get ugly, particularly if the Panthers get a couple of scores early. In his 10 complete games, Manning has averaged 254 passing yards, with 12 TD passes (1.2 per game). In today’s NFL, those are below-average numbers. Carolina is allowing 259 passing yards per game (which is about average) but has allowed more than 1 TD pass in only a third of its games, and most of those were against quarterbacks who are a lot better than Manning at throwing touchdowns – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. (The sixth game was against Jameis Winston, and even he threw more touchdowns than Manning this year.) From a fantasy perspective, the best thing Manning has going for him is that the Broncos could fall behind. As long as this is a close, low-scoring game, Denver could trade punts and let the clock run. Once they fall behind, they’ll need to start opening things up. When the Broncos lost at Indianapolis, recall, Manning had one of his better statistical days, finishing with 281 yards and 2 TDs. At the same time, if the Broncos fall behind by a couple of touchdowns, they could also try for a spark by sticking in Brock Osweiler. We’re thinking about 240 yards and a touchdown makes sense. … With it being a lesser matchup for the passing game, we’re not particularly high on the wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both talented, but neither looks likely to score. They’ve both averaged about 79 yards in the 10 games Manning has gone the distance. They’ve each finished with more yards (than the other) in half of those games. Sanders has outscored Thomas 4-1 in those games, while Thomas outscored Sanders 5-2 when Osweiler was playing. They seem pretty similar. The Panthers have Josh Norman, of course, and he’s one of the league’s best cornerbacks, but he doesn’t look particularly likely to lock in on either player. The Panthers don’t use as much man coverage as other teams; Norman is good, but they don’t deploy him like Darrelle Revis or Patrick Peterson, where he’s consistently following around the other team’s No. 1 threat. Norman has bounced around the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Cardinals, and it likely will be the same on Sunday. Norman tends to line up outside, so if we had to guess, we’d expect he’d be on Thomas a little more often than Sanders. Whatever. About 70 yards is a fair guess for both of these guys, with perhaps a 50-60 percent chance than one of them winds up in the end zone. Definitely not both. … Owen Daniels looks a little more likely than the wide receivers to catch a touchdown. He caught 2 TDs last week, and in the 11 games Manning has started, Daniels has scored as many touchdowns (5) as Thomas and Sanders combined. The Panthers have Luke Kuechly at linebacker, and he’s very good in coverage, but Thomas Davis has a broken arm (maybe keeping him out) and their other starting linebacker (Shaq Thompson) is a rookie, so might be more prone to be caught out of position. The Panthers have thus far allowed 7 TDs to tight ends (in 18 games), which is close to the league average. Daniels, however, isn’t a big part of Denver’s offense. He’s averaged only 27 yards in Manning’s 10 full games. Their other tight ends shouldn’t be factors. Virgil Green is primarily a blocker; he’s caught only 12 passes all year, with his only touchdown back in Week 2. The Broncos have pretty much given up on Vernon Davis since he had a couple of key drops at the end of losses in December. He’s caught only 1 pass for 5 yards in the last four games. … With the running backs, it will be a one-two punch. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman both should get at least 40 percent of the workload. Hillman has started each of the last 12 games, but Anderson has been playing just as much and has tended to be a little more effective. Setting aside a game that Anderson missed with an ankle injury, he’s averaged 58 rushing and 11 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 5 TDs. Hillman has averaged 53 rushing and 11 receiving yards in those games, with 3 TDs. Note that the team’s three best running games all came with Brock Osweiler in the lineup – defenses had to respect his ability to keep the ball on bootlegs. In Manning’s 10 complete games, Anderson averaged 60 yards (46 run, 14 rec), with 2 TDs. Hillman averaged 46 yards (44 run, 2 rec), with 4 TDs in those games. It’s modest production, and here they’re working against one of the league’s best run defenses. Only three teams allowed fewer rushing yards in the regular season, and the Panthers have held 10 of their last 11 opponents under 80 rushing yards. They’ve got that pair of big tackles dominating the middle of the line of scrimmage, and they’ve got the speedy linebackers who make it tough to run outside. Looks like an unfavorable situation, particularly if Denver is forced to abandon the run in the second half. Carolina might have to go without their 2nd-leading tackle, Thomas Davis, who says he’ll play with a broken arm, but when they were missing Kuechly earlier in the year, they plugged in A.J. Klein and the defense didn’t lose much. Neither Anderson nor Hillman should be much of a factor in the passing game; they’ve both averaged only 11 receiving yards in their last 10 games. If you want to talk yourself into starting either of these guys, best I can offer is that Carolina’s defense, as solid as it appears to be, has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns in 18 games, while the Broncos have scored 13 rushing touchdowns. So logically, if you had to guess, you would have to concede it’s more probable than not the Broncos will run for a touchdown. … The Broncos don’t have a clean No. 3 wide receiver. Jordan Norwood, Cody Latimer, Bennie Fowler and Andre Caldwell probably will all but out there some, and none of them should play a huge role. They’ve all caught 2-3 passes in the two postseason games. Norwood should also return punts, and he caught 4 passes in each of the last two regular-season games, so we’re ranking him a little higher than the others. Latimer and Fowler have more big-play potential, but Peyton Manning isn’t likely to attempt many long throws downfield. … I am not a fan of Brandon McManus. He will definitely be lower on my board than Graham Gano (whom I’ll get into tomorrow). With kickers, it tends to be more about which team is winning, rather than field goal accuracy or red zone percentages or whatever. The Broncos have lost four games this year, and McManus has scored only 6, 1 and 3 points in three of those games (he bagged a respectable 12 in the loss against the Raiders). For the year McManus has scored 149 points, 15 fewer than Gano. Carolina’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed only 95 points to kickers, 23 fewer than the Broncos.

On the scoring here, I'm using the system of 6 points for touchdowns, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards and 1 for every 20 receiving yards. On this one, I've got all of the touchdowns (pass, run, rec, ret) bundled into one column, but Manning is getting only 1 point for his TD passes (not that there should be more than one) while the others are getting 6 points for their actual touchdowns.

—Ian Allan