Some are in mini fantasy competitions that involve making decisions or setting lineups, so I have previewed Super Bowl 50 just the same as if it were one of the 256 regular-season games. There are not enough players to merit a full-blown “Fantasy Index Weekly” but I have compiled breakdowns for each team. I posted the Broncos yesterday; now I’m turning to Carolina.

Carolina Panthers:

It’s Carolina’s offense that should be the difference. Both teams have outstanding defenses. They both allowed 18-19 points per game in the regular season, and they finished 4th and 6th in yards allowed. But the Panthers on offense are way better than the Broncos. Denver’s offense has scored only 17 touchdowns in Peyton Manning’s 10 full games. The Panthers, on the other hand, have scored 63 touchdowns, and they’re playing their best ball right now. They’ve scored at least 5 TDs in six of their last nine games. Some weak opponents in there, of course, but those are still huge numbers. And Carolina has put up 31 and 49 points the last two weeks against Seattle and Arizona, and both of those teams are very good defensively. My expectation, therefore, is that Carolina will either jump all over the Broncos early, winning by 20-30 points, or that Denver will hang around for awhile, with the Panthers pulling away in the second half. Carolina opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that’s not enough. It’s up to 6 points now, and I am still definitely be on the Panthers’ side of the ledger. This offense has been averaging 4 TDs per game recently, so I’m figuring about 3-4 TDs is the right estimate for this game. … The Broncos have the great speed rushers coming from the outside. Von Miller in particular is on top of his game right now. It might take Cam Newton a while to figure that out. The last two weeks, he’s had the luxury of being able to stand in the pocket, finding guys downfield for big plays. They’ll likely have to win in a different way this week. But the Panthers have the most flexible, unconventional offense in the league, with their ability to run, pass and mix in Newton as a runner. This is different than New England, where the Broncos had no worries about the run or Tom Brady getting out of the pocket. Not that this is a great matchup for Newton; let’s give Denver credit for ranking No. 1 against the pass. The Broncos allowed an average of only 220 passing yards in the regular season, and they’ve allowed only 20 TD passes in 18 games. Newton hasn’t put up great passing numbers in his other games against good pass defenses. He’s played seven games against teams that ranked in the top 10 against the pass, and he averaged only 237 passing yards in those games, with just 10 TDs (multiple TDs in only three of those games). But Newton isn’t just a passer. He’s also extensively used runner, and that dimension tends to show up more often against this kind of opponent. In those seven games against good pass defenses, Newton averaged 40 rushing yards, with 7 TD runs.

For the year, Newton is averaging 241 passing yards and 39 rushing yards, with 50 TDs (38 passing, 12 rushing) – just short of 3 per game. For this kind of a game, I’m thinking a fair over-under is about 230 passing yards, 45 rushing yards, 1-2 TD passes (with 2 more likely) and about a 50 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. Definitely should be the most productive player on either teams, and probably as likely as the other 105 players combined to be the game’s MVP. … In the traditional sense, the Panthers don’t run the ball particularly well. If you set aside the quarterbacks, the Broncos have run for more yards and more touchdowns. But Jonathan Stewart is definitely a notch better than C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman. The Denver backs are splitting time pretty evenly, while Stewart is more of a full-time option. He’s averaged 87 rushing yards in his last 11 games, with 9 TDs. Denver ranked No. 2 against the run in the regular season, but it hasn’t faced an offense like this. The Panthers have Newton both running and passing, and that really opens things up. Stewart has run for 106 and 83 yards in his last two games against Seattle and Arizona, and those defenses ranked 1st and 6th against the run in the regular season. Good chance for Stewart to run for 70-plus yards, and that puts him ahead of Anderson and Hillman. None of these running backs are heavily involved as receivers. The Denver guys have both been averaging about 11 receiving yards per game recently, while Stewart averages only 7 receiving yards. Carolina should score a rushing touchdown in this game (maybe 2), and it’s kind of a 50-50 deal whether it will be Newton or Stewart putting it in the end zone. Setting aside three games that Stewart missed, they’ve each scored 8 rushing touchdowns in the last 13 games. Overall, Carolina has scored 24 rushing touchdowns while Denver has allowed 12, for a combined total of 36 TD runs in 36 games. … If you want to pick through the spot-duty running backs, Mike Tolbert looks like the best bet. They use him some on flare-out passes around the goal line. He caught a 2-point conversion last week, and he caught 3 TDs in the regular season. He also gets a few short-yardage carries, but just 1 TD run all year. Tolbert doesn’t get the ball a whole bunch. For the year he’s averaged 15 rushing and 9 receiving yards. That’s not much, but way better than Fozzy Whittaker. Setting aside the three games Stewart sat out, Whittaker has totaled only 88 yards all year, with no touchdowns in those 15 games. Cameron Artis-Payne probably won’t even be active; he didn’t play against Arizona. … Greg Olsen should be Carolina’s leading receiver. He’s one of the best tight ends in the league, has a great rapport with Cam Newton, and this defense is overloaded with quality cornerbacks (making it harder to throw to wide receivers). The Broncos have actually allowed more touchdown passes to tight ends (8) than to wide receivers (7). Denver’s defense in that regard is similar to Seattle, and Olsen came up big in both of the games against the Seahawks, with 13 catches for 208 yards and 2 TDs. As we push the numbers around, Olsen looks far more likely than any other player (on either team) to catch a touchdown. For the year he’s averaged 72 yards per game, albeit with just 8 of the team’s 38 touchdown passes, which is a little lower than you might expect. Of the 20 touchdowns allowed by Denver, 40 percent have gone to tight ends. … Carolina will use a fleet of wide receivers. Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown are the starters, but they’ll also mix in Devin Funchess, and Jerricho Cotchery will get a few looks out of the slot. It’s a lesser situation for all of these guys, in that Denver has the best cornerbacks in the league. This is a game where the overall passing production should be a little off. The team should rely more on the run, and when Cam Newton is passing, he’ll want to be careful about throwing in the direction of Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. That said, Ginn and Brown don’t need to catch many balls to salvage a good day; both have the potential to hit on long passes, and those opportunities tend to get opened up by the running game. Ginn was surprising effective last week, even with Patrick Peterson covering him. Ginn scored on a 22-yard run, caught a 39-yard pass and had a long punt return. He’s been playing the best ball of his career recently, with 2 TDs in three straight games in December. He’s averaged 59 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 8 TDs. Brown hit for a long touchdown last week, and he’s playing a lot better now than he was back in August, when he was plagued by drops. Brown has averaged 45 yards in his last 10, with 4 TDs. Funchess won’t play nearly as much as those guys, but they might look to tap into his size around the goal line. Setting aside three games where either Brown or Ginn was sidelined, Funchess has averaged only 24 yards in his last 10 games, with 3 TDs. Cotchery works out of the slot, so he might be a little busier than usual – he won’t be covered by Talib or Harris. But Cotchery in his last 10 has averaged only 33 yards, with 2 TDs. … Graham Gano is the better of the two kickers in this game. He’s on the team that’s far more likely to win, and he’s facing a defense that’s been good at making drives stall in the red zone. Opponents have actually scored more field goals (30) than extra points (28) against the Broncos. Over the last 18 games, Gano has outscored Brandon McManus by 15 points, and he’s facing a defense that’s allowed 23 more kicking points.

Putting numbers to these ideas, it works out like this (using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards and 1 for every 20 passing yards). For the “TD” column, that includes all touchdowns actually scored – not touchdown passes, but touchdown runs, catches and returns.

—Ian Allan