It’s an often quoted stat this spring: 16 of the 30 closers entering 2015 no longer held the job by the end of the season, either due to ineffectiveness or injury. Losing your closers can doom your fantasy team, especially given the high price of drafting or acquiring them. Below is a list of closers fantasy owners could be better off avoiding going into draft day.

Santiago Casilla, Giants
Casilla claimed the Giants closer job early in 2014 when Sergio Romo struggled, and he hasn’t looked back. His ERA ballooned by more than one run last season, but he still converted 38 saves. With the Giants garnering the highest expected win total in sportsbooks, this would seem like a profitable situation in 2016. However, the ERA indicators show a pitcher who could be getting closer to a blow up, with a FIP above 3.00 in each of the last three seasons and a mediocre strikeout rate leading up to last season. Most concerning is Casilla’s velocity decline at his advanced age. He will turn 36 in late July, and his average fastball declined one mph compared to 2014. Romo is still waiting behind Casilla, and Hunter Strickland has also shown the indicators of a potential game finisher.

Steve Cishek, Mariners
While Cishek has significant closing experience with the Marlins, it was still curious when Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto anointed him as the closer after signing him. The move was so odd because the team had already acquired Joaquin Benoit, the former closer of the Tigers and Padres who pitched well in 2015. Cishek, on the other hand, had a 3.58 ERA and poor 4.4 BB/9 between Miami and St. Louis last season. It sounds like the closer guarantee was what convinced Cishek to join the Mariners, but the fact is that his velocity and peripherals declined significantly last season. If they don’t improve, look for Benoit to take over the role in short order.

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Sean Doolittle, Athletics
Doolittle was a dominant closer for Oakland in 2014, but he missed most of last season with shoulder issues. When he did show well in 12 appearances, Doolittle’s velocity was lacking, nearly two mph below his 2014 level. That’s a huge issue for a pitcher who throws his fastball almost exclusively, not to mention that his shoulder issues were recurring last year. The A’s added three relievers capable of closing this offseason in Ryan Madson, John Axford, and Liam Hendriks.

J.J. Hoover, Reds
Reds manager Bryan Price has already said that Hoover will open the year as Cincinnati’s closer. Based on Hoover’s history and recent performance, we shouldn’t be overly optimistic that he can handle the role. Hoover was removed from the role early in 2014, when he opened the year as the designated seat-warmer Aroldis Chapman, who started the year on the DL. Last season Hoover’s peripherals were hideous despite a 2.94 ERA. He’s struggled with walks over the last two seasons, and had a career-worst 7.3 K/9 in 2015 and 1.68 K/BB ratio. His performance screamed 4-plus ERA again despite the actual ERA saying otherwise. The Reds have other viable options, including former Triple-A closer Jose “Jumbo” Diaz, who showed superior peripherals and far more velocity last year.

Fernando Rodney, Padres
Rodney isn’t guaranteed the closer role heading into the season, but he certainly looks like the front runner after San Diego decimated their bullpen in the offseason. He signed an incentive-laden deal in the offseason after a solid finish to a poor season in 2015. Rodney lost the closer job in Seattle before eventually getting traded in late August. Before arriving in Chicago, Rodney had trouble keeping the ball in the park and saw his strikeout rate fall below one strikeout per inning for the first time since 2011. It wouldn’t be a surprise for Rodney to continue his decline at age 39, and Kevin Quackenbush and Drew Pomeranz do have some experience closing games.

Brad Ziegler, Diamondbacks
Ziegler isn’t your typical closer; he’s a submarine right-hander who averaged less than 84 mph on his fastball last season –down more than two mph from 2013. He’s effective because of the incredible sink on his pitches, but his strikeout rate has declined alongside his velocity. Ziegler had only a 4.8 K/9 last season, a rate that was among the worst in the game. It’s a risk in a role where managers usual prefer strikeout pitchers who can limit the opportunity for defensive mistakes, and the addition of Tyler Clippard this offseason gives Arizona an experienced backup. Heading into his age 36 season, it remains to be seen how much more velocity Ziegler can lose and remain effective.