Two running backs were selected in the third round of the draft on Friday, Kenyan Drake and C.J. Prosise. Based on the track record of other third-round runners this century, the odds are against them succeeding. But if they do succeed, they might well do so in a big way.
There have been 44 other running backs taken in the third round since 2000, and by our binary evaluation (Hit/Miss), there have been more than three times as many Misses (32) as Hits (9). The jury is still out on five recent picks, and maybe we're too early in calling Jerick McKinnon and Charles Sims misses.
But although the odds are against either rookie hitting, the third-rounders who have worked out have generally not been good players -- they've been great. Hits include Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook, DeMarco Murray, and Steve Slaton. Some of those were/are stars in the league for a lot of years -- no way would they last until the third round of the draft in retrospect.
Many of those players also made an impact right away. Four of the hits went over 1,000 total yards as rookies, while David Johnson was over 900 last season. Charles and Westbrook had quiet rookie seasons, but there's a decent chance if Drake and Prosise work out, we'll know right away.
Third-round runners since 2000, sorted by total yards as rookies, are shown below.
THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Hit/Miss | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
2008 | 89 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | Hit | 1282 | 377 | 1659 | 10 |
2008 | 64 | Kevin Smith, Det. | Hit | 976 | 286 | 1262 | 8 |
2011 | 71 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | Hit | 897 | 183 | 1080 | 2 |
2015 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | Hit | 581 | 457 | 1038 | 13 |
2015 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | ? | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 |
2014 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | Miss | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 |
2015 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | ? | 490 | 304 | 794 | 4 |
2001 | 80 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | Miss | 512 | 247 | 759 | 5 |
2005 | 65 | Frank Gore, S.F. | Hit | 608 | 131 | 739 | 3 |
2014 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | Miss | 673 | 64 | 737 | 5 |
2006 | 79 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | Miss | 633 | 102 | 735 | 2 |
2000 | 63 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | Miss | 512 | 191 | 703 | 8 |
2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | Miss | 538 | 135 | 673 | 0 |
2008 | 73 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | Hit | 357 | 272 | 629 | 1 |
2001 | 65 | James Jackson, Clev. | Miss | 554 | 56 | 610 | 2 |
2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | Miss | 532 | 47 | 579 | 1 |
2001 | 85 | Travis Minor, Mia. | Miss | 281 | 263 | 544 | 4 |
2009 | 65 | Shonn Greene, NYJ | Hit | 540 | 0 | 540 | 2 |
2000 | 76 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | Miss | 406 | 126 | 532 | 3 |
2002 | 84 | Lamar Gordon, St.L. | Miss | 228 | 278 | 506 | 3 |
2011 | 73 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | Hit | 441 | 13 | 454 | 1 |
2015 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | ? | 392 | 14 | 406 | 1 |
2012 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | Miss | 330 | 62 | 392 | 1 |
2014 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. | Miss | 185 | 190 | 375 | 1 |
2013 | 96 | Knile Davis, K.C. | Miss | 242 | 75 | 317 | 5 |
2009 | 74 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | Miss | 226 | 76 | 302 | 1 |
2005 | 77 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | Miss | 278 | 7 | 285 | 3 |
2003 | 93 | Chris Brown, Tenn. | Miss | 221 | 61 | 282 | 0 |
2002 | 91 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | Hit | 193 | 86 | 279 | 0 |
2005 | 73 | Vernand Morency, Hou. | Miss | 184 | 87 | 271 | 2 |
2003 | 96 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | Miss | 203 | 2 | 205 | 0 |
2007 | 93 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | Miss | 85 | 117 | 202 | 0 |
2008 | 69 | Jacob Hester, S.D. | Miss | 95 | 91 | 186 | 2 |
2007 | 71 | Lorenzo Booker, Mia. | Miss | 125 | 0 | 125 | 0 |
2014 | 97 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | Miss | 40 | 23 | 63 | 0 |
2006 | 74 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | Miss | 19 | 20 | 39 | 0 |
2003 | 77 | Musa Smith, Balt. | Miss | 31 | 0 | 31 | 2 |
2011 | 96 | Alex Green, G.B. | Miss | 11 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
2007 | 90 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | Miss | 16 | 0 | 16 | 1 |
2001 | 82 | Heath Evans, Sea. | Miss | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
2003 | 85 | B.J. Askew, NYJ | Miss | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
2005 | 101 | Maurice Clarett, Den. | Miss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2000 | 81 | Rueben Droughns, Det. | Miss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2000 | 88 | Doug Chapman, Minn. | Miss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | ? | ||||
2016 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | ? |
--Andy Richardson