Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this special Kickoff Edition: How to set up keepers in a dynasty league. Weighing the merits of Jeremy Hill vs. Adrian Peterson. And what is the best draft position? And much, much more (well, one more letter).

Question 1

We have a 10-team league that is considering going to a keeper league. What has been proposed is to give up the draft pick that you picked that player in the previous year. I was hoping you may have some information on this type of draft or could lead me to a site that would have that info. One thing I wonder about is how to determine what round to give up for players that were taken from the waiver wire.

STEVEN TURNER (Tacoma, WA)

I haven’t been in a keeper league for over 20 years, so I can speak only in theory. Readers might weigh in with better suggestions. But I can toss out a few ideas. Most notably, when dividing up talent, an auction can be a compelling way to go. It doesn’t get any more fair. That is, with this year’s rookies, everyone wants Ezekiel Elliott. Who should get him? With a draft-oriented system, he goes to whichever owner did the best job of losing games last year. That owner might not even like Elliott all that much. With an auction, Elliott goes to whichever owner is willing to spend the most. But let’s assume you’re sticking with a draft. I think you need to start from scratch. Otherwise it’s not fair to the owner who perhaps selected Adrian Peterson instead of Todd Gurley last year. You definitely start from scratch. How about this for an initial starting point: Teams lose one draft pick for each player kept. If you choose to protect five players, you’re not drafting until the sixth round (regardless how you acquired those five players). I think that’s a system employed by many, and I think it would work just fine. Simple – not too much paperwork. If you want to reduce the turnover of kickers and defenses, they could be exempt (that is, if you protect your kicker, you instead lose your last-round pick).

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Question 2

I can't get a handle on Jeremy Hill this year. I've been offered Hill for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty league and I'm leaning toward accepting. But Hill was pretty bad last year. Any insights?

Mike McGraw (N Chelmsford, MA)

I will stick with Peterson. He’s 31, but I think he’s got one really good season left in him. The offensive line there will be a lot better this year, with John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt back after missing all of last year with injuries. They signed a really good guard, Alex Boone, and they signed Andre Smith for depth. Hill is more of a stab in the dark. Maybe he’s got some good years left in him, or maybe he continues to bumble and stumble, like he did for most of last year. He’s had some fumbling issues, including the killer that cost them the playoff game against the Steelers. He’s really bad as a pass catcher. And that entire running game could tail off with Hue Jackson gone. Jackson is a huge proponent of running the ball – sticking with it even when it’s not working.

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Question 3

A few years ago you did an analysis of draft position using a standard serpentine draft for in ppr leagues. I was wondering if the lack of an LT-like player may change that analysis going forward. Our league picks our draft position Kentucky Derby Style and I am leaning towards one of the middle picks as opposed to the two ends which the original analysis suggested. Thanks for all the writeups over the years. They are invaluable.

John Mortensen (Long Beach, NY)

Let me answer this a little differently than I have in the past. Not better, but differently. I’ve got the PPR data for the last five years in front of me. I posted some earlier in the week. Suppose that each year, the team with the #1 pick selected the #1 player. The team with the #2 pick selected the 2nd-best player. And so on. Stick with that all the way down to the person with the 72nd pick selecting the 72nd-best player. Then, we’ll measure all choices relative to choice No. 72. It’s worth zero, and the other choices are worth some amount more than that. Using such a process, and using all of the player data from the last five years, then after six rounds, the team drafting first in all odd-numbered rounds (and last in the even-numbered rounds) would have by far the best team. The second-best team would be the team holding the #2 slot, again by far. And the order stays the same for the full 1 thru 12.

This result surprises me. Not so much the order, but the margin of difference. To me, it shows that if you can get that really special player – a quarterback passing for 50 touchdowns, a wide receiver catching 130-plus passes, whatever – you’re really set up. Those outlier superstars really throw it out of whack. On this kind of thing, really better not to look at what players have done in the past (since nobody could be expected to select them in that order) but what you expect them to do this year (which would be more like what I posted in the past). But let’s set aside the superstars for a moment. Instead of looking at picks 1 thru 72 (6 picks for each team). Let’s look at just picks 25-72 (4 picks for each team). With that scenario, there’s more of a steady decline between the picks. In that one, the first three picks still come out on top, and the last two are at the bottom, but there’s some scrambling in the middle, and more reasonable results overall.

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Question 4

I am in a position where I can choose to keep 5 players instead of customary 4 that our league allows. I can choose that option or choose to extend a player by adding 1 year on a contract. Kind of unsure what I should choose. I have Keenan Allen (can only extend him), Eli Manning, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Matthews, Philip Rivers, Jordan Reed, Stephen Gostkowski that I am basically deciding between. I am kind of leaning toward keeping 5 (a QB, Freeman, Matthews, Reed and Gostkowski) then I am kind of free to wait until late in draft to get my 2nd kicker and tight end. Thoughts?

Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)

They’re all worthy keepers, but you have to toss two back. For me, the two who wind up on the cutting-room floor are Eli Manning and Stephen Gostkowski. I like kickers more than most, but I don’t think you can put Gostkowski ahead of any of these guys. You’ll find a kicker (maybe even re-draft Gostkowski). With Manning, I don’t see him as being much different than Rivers, but I’m confident you’ll find a very good second quarterback in the draft (maybe even re-up with Manning).

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