Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Do teams with bad defenses tend to put up better passing numbers? How will the Jets quarterback situation play out? And which teams will have the best offenses?
Question 1
If I can't decide between two QBs is it too easy of a theory to pick the QB whose team has the worst defense, resulting in more shootouts and all-throw fourth quarters? Can't wait for your podcast this summer and the earlier the better.
eric gustitus (Exeter, PA)
It’s an interesting idea. The Gustitus Theory, we’ll call it – that we should lean towards selecting quarterbacks on teams with bad defenses. Blake Bortles benefitted from this dynamic last year, piling up a whole bunch of second-half stats when his team was hopelessly behind. So I spent some time looking into it. The NFL went to 32 teams in 2002, and there have been 448 total offenses since that time. I group them by their defenses. I found that if a team had a bottom-10 defense, it tended to average an average 135 passing yards per season – over 8 yards per game. So your hunch was correct. At the same time, however, those teams tended to average 1.4 fewer touchdown passes per season, which negates that added value. Teams with good defenses tend to finish with slightly fewer passing yards, but they also tend to finish with slightly more touchdown passes. Here are the numbers, with the “PPG” being fantasy points per game (using 4 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 20 yards).
| PASSING PRODUCTION BY DEFENSE RANK | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Yards | TD | PPG |
| 1 | 3,477 | 22.3 | 16.4 |
| 2 | 3,647 | 24.8 | 17.6 |
| 3 | 3,532 | 21.3 | 16.4 |
| 4 | 3,832 | 25.4 | 18.3 |
| 5 | 3,584 | 21.6 | 16.6 |
| 6 | 3,533 | 22.2 | 16.6 |
| 7 | 3,851 | 23.8 | 18.0 |
| 8 | 3,760 | 23.4 | 17.6 |
| 9 | 3,563 | 22.3 | 16.7 |
| 10 | 3,863 | 24.4 | 18.2 |
| 11 | 3,738 | 23.7 | 17.6 |
| 12 | 3,554 | 21.1 | 16.4 |
| 13 | 3,797 | 24.1 | 17.9 |
| 14 | 3,715 | 21.6 | 17.0 |
| 15 | 3,882 | 26.8 | 18.8 |
| 16 | 3,637 | 22.1 | 16.9 |
| 17 | 3,851 | 24.4 | 18.1 |
| 18 | 3,532 | 18.6 | 15.7 |
| 19 | 3,941 | 26.4 | 18.9 |
| 20 | 3,616 | 22.4 | 16.9 |
| 21 | 3,663 | 22.1 | 17.0 |
| 22 | 3,780 | 23.5 | 17.7 |
| 23 | 4,169 | 26.8 | 19.7 |
| 24 | 3,535 | 20.4 | 16.2 |
| 25 | 3,902 | 21.9 | 17.7 |
| 26 | 3,644 | 19.8 | 16.3 |
| 27 | 3,830 | 22.7 | 17.6 |
| 28 | 3,959 | 22.4 | 18.0 |
| 29 | 3,840 | 20.0 | 17.0 |
| 30 | 3,728 | 20.1 | 16.7 |
| 31 | 3,656 | 22.0 | 16.9 |
| 32 | 3,746 | 20.9 | 16.9 |
Question 2
Love your magazine been buying it since 1994 (except 2011 of course when you didn't make a hard copy) I have them all sitting by my bed as I am always looking at past years even today. The only complaint I have is your magazine is stuck in the old days by going non-ppr for pretty much everything. All your experts are told to rank by non-ppr, your mock draft and auction are non-ppr, dynasty rankings are non-ppr when pretty much every other magazine out there and site we play on (every high stakes site) uses PPR rankings. It be nice if you made the switch and then the magazine would have much more value to the majority of the public. Anyone who plays high stakes redraft or high stakes dynasty (which is going to be a ton of people now) are all playing in PPR leagues. I imagine more local leagues use PPR than non-PPR now a days as well.
Henry Muto (Geneva, OH)
I don’t know what the ratios are right now between standard and PPR leagues. I’ll post a poll on the website, and we’ll see what it says. In my writings, I try to address both scoring systems.
Question 3
Very sorry to hear of Mark Nulty's passing. Any idea what FFI is going to do this year with a podcast?
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
We miss Mark. He poured a lot of energy into the podcast, and he was positive and funny, even as his medical condition worsened. He was a great husband and father. So we’re re-grouping on our end. Justin Eleff will lead the podcast this year, and the first episode should be aired soon.
Question 4
A great magazine as always and congrats on 30 years of fantasy football. Who do you see being the top 5 offenses?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
I currently have four offenses finishing with 47-48 touchdowns. In order, Saints, Packers, Panthers and Cardinals. No “knockout” offense in that group. That is, if I were ready to guarantee an offense was going to be not only good but a notch better than the many other good offenses, I would have it up around maybe 52 touchdowns. I’ve had other groups up there in the past. Not ready to stick that label on any of these four offenses. Dallas, New England and Colts, by the way, are my next three, coming in at 44-46 touchdowns.
Question 5
What do you hear regarding the Jets quarterback situation? I wonder if the Jets are considering not re-signing Fitzpatrick at all and, assuming they can locate a decent backup by training camp, are going to move ahead with Geno Smith. Smith has had a rocky first few years, but I wonder if his ceiling is higher than Fitzpatrick and, long-term, may offer the Jets a better chance of winning. I believe this would be a contract year for Smith, so that may also lead some urgency to their decision.
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
If I had to guess, I would say the two sides will come to some kind of deal before training camp begins. They want him, and he wants to play for them. But the two sides are pretty entrenched, so I agree with you that there is some possibility that the Jets opt to just go with Geno Smith. As terrible as he was during his first two seasons, that was in a different offense. Now he’s been working in this system for over a year, so he could be a different guy. Chan Gailey has a long history of making lesser quarterbacks look good. So maybe the Jets feel that there actually isn’t that much difference between these two quarterbacks. I don’t see either of their two youngsters, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, as serious contenders to start. And you are correct in pointing out that Smith is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract. He’ll be a free agent next spring.
Question 6
12-team PPR league. I have been approached by an owner that would like to trade me Dion Lewis and Jeremy Maclin for Mike Evans and RB of my choice (Danny Woodhead, Justin Forsett or Jonathan Stewart). I was curious as to where my Lewis, my RBs, Evans, and Maclin fall on your rankings currently. What are your thoughts on the trade?
Tyler Wells ()
Evans is the jewel in the deal – a potential superstar who could be a top-10 wide receiver in a bunch of the upcoming half-dozen years. He’s a notch better than Maclin, and he’s also a lot younger. That’s what you’re giving up. But the trade gives you a chance to get rid of Forsett, who’s right at the end of the road. He’s a smaller, older back, and he doesn’t really fit Marc Trestman’s system – he’s not a good enough pass catcher. With the Ravens having a bunch of other running backs, I’m not 100 percent confident Forsett will even make the team. So I like the idea of getting rid of him, even if what you’re getting back isn’t necessarily much. Lewis was used as a starter-type back in a few games last year, but going forward I expect him to be more of a third-down back, filling the same kind of role the Patriots have had in the past for backs like Kevin Faulk, Woodhead and Shane Vereen. Which leaves us where, exactly? You can do the deal if you want. Lewis could be a decent depth guy. But there’s only one real player in this deal, if you peel away all the bodies coming and going. Evans, and you’d be giving him away. So I think I’d probably just sit tight.
Question 7
Khalil Mack is listed as a LB on MFL, Rotoworld, etc. Your magazine lists him as a DE which would be great except he isn't actually allowed to be played at DE in fantasy football. Where would you rank him at LB and overall being only allowed to be played as a LB?
Henry Muto (Geneva, OH)
You make it sound like we’re off on an island not listing him as a linebacker. He gets his paychecks from the Oakland Raiders, and they call him a defensive end. I think it would be fair to call the National Football League a significant player in this arena. They have him listed as a defensive end. That’s what I’m seeing at the team website and the league website. Linebacker last year, but a defensive end in 2016. But whatever. Andy puts together the individual defensive projections, and he’s got all of his numbers in an Excel file that’s available at the website. You can go through and tweak the positions to whatever you want. Mostly they’re using him to try to get to quarterbacks, rather than having him filling rushing lanes. So he doesn’t grade out particularly well for tackles. He’s had 76 and 77 tackles in his first two seasons, and Andy’s got him in that range again. On Andy’s board, there are 59 linebackers who project to finish with more tackles. The way most of these fantasy leagues are set up, the big tackle guys will beat the double-digit sack guys. Andy has Mack projected to finish with 15 sacks, yet he would still rank only 18th if classified as a linebacker.
Question 8
I've been playing fantasy on a site called Fantasy Bowl for the last 7 years and I just got an email saying they're shutting it down. Really enjoyed the league and was wondering if you could recommend a replacement. It was a PPR league and I paid $100 to participate. Any help would be much appreciated as I know there are a million different sites theses days. On a side note I looked at my order history with FFI and have been with you guys since 2002. I won that particular league I mentioned four times over the 7 years and have you and your staff to thank for that. I'll be a super fanatic yet again this year as well. Here's hoping my 15th year with you is as much fun as my first. I know it will be!
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
Thanks for your kind words. Maybe the readers can help out on this issue. I haven’t had a chance to sample the various sites. I live in Washington state, and we’re not legally allowed to participate on those sites. With a couple of the sites I’ve wanted to try, I’ve been turned away.