Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why NFL teams should make more use of the 2-point conversion. Does it make sense to stack a roster with 3 franchise running backs? Just how much of a bounce-back can be expected from Aaron Rodgers? And Tatum Bell returns to haunt from the past.
Question 1
There has been considerable talk (Pittsburgh, Mike McCarthy, etc.) of the value in going for two points after a touchdown more often if not every play. Do you take that into account in your projections? What impact do you see that having on player stats?
Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)
This seems to get talked about every summer, but rarely does it amount to much. The Steelers were the first to actually make a real attempt to utilize the 2-point conversion last year; they went 8 of 11 (an indication Ben Roethlisberger should perhaps be credited with an extra 1-2 TD passes on your board). But it wasn’t a consistent deal; they kicked after 34 touchdowns. I can’t say for sure they’ll stick with that. And with guys like McCarthy and Drew Brees, it’s more talk about the potential rather than a real suggestion. "Personally, I feel like if we went for two, we could make it more than 50 percent of the time,” Brees said. That’s not the same as indicating the team is planning on going for 2 more often.” In my opinion, more teams should be considering going for 2. With extra points now longer, the success rate on PATs dipped to 94 percent last year. Over the last 10 years, teams have been good on just under 47 percent of 2-point conversions. So that’s seemingly a wash. But there is some corruption in those numbers. That is, when the Packers scored on a Hail Mary at the end of the Detroit game last year, they chose to not attempt an extra point (fearing it might be blocked and returned). Instead, Aaron Rodgers intentionally took a knee, and that play was cataloged as a failed 2-point conversion. The Ravens did the same in their win at Cleveland. And over the past 10 years, when snaps on kicks have been dropped, those have been labeled as failed 2-point tries. There are about 4 of those plays per year. If you look only at intentional 2-point attempts, the success rate is actually just over 50 percent – meaning there’s actually a slightly bigger payoff than simply kicking for 1 point.
| Year | Made | Att | Pct | Garble |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 21 | 35 | 60% | 6 |
| 2007 | 30 | 56 | 54% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 62 | 45% | 6 |
| 2009 | 24 | 53 | 45% | 7 |
| 2010 | 26 | 50 | 52% | 3 |
| 2011 | 23 | 49 | 47% | 1 |
| 2012 | 29 | 52 | 56% | 6 |
| 2013 | 33 | 68 | 49% | 1 |
| 2014 | 27 | 56 | 48% | 2 |
| 2015 | 45 | 90 | 50% | 4 |
| Total | 286 | 571 | 50% | 41 |
Question 2
Who is on the cover of the magazine this year?
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
This is our 30th year, and for the first time, we’ve putting a player on the cover who has the same last night as a previous cover boy. It’s been 11 years since the Tatum Bell debacle, so we’re rolling with LeVeon Bell. Both are running backs, both wear No. 26, and the photos are almost identical. Weird.
Question 3
Greetings from a few miles down highway 522! Just got the mag today, can't wait to read it. Keeper question: Choose two of LeVeon Bell, Adrian Peterson and Aaron Rodgers. I've had AP since his rookie year, so it's hard to lance him off my team, even if he is 31. Passing TDs are 6. I also have the good fortune (by sucking last year) of getting first pick, so Ezekiel Elliott will be added to the mix. So who should my two keepers be?
Gregory Wells (Lake Forest Park, WA)
At this time next year, Bell and Elliott should be your keepers. So the question is whether you want to keep Peterson, which would essentially be like using your first three draft picks on running backs. According to my numbers, if you were drafting from scratch for just this year, Bell, Peterson and Elliott would all be selected in the top 8 overall. Rodgers would be down at 14th – higher than in a typical league because of the 6-point touchdown passes. Maybe Bell or Elliott gets hurt or underachieves, but most likely Rodgers won’t be kept entering the 2017 season. I see three choices. No. 1, you trade Peterson. Ideally, this would be done (if rules allow) before teams announce their keepers; maybe you pick up an extra third-round pick. If trades can’t be made until after the draft, then it gets a lot harder – player would have to be better than Rodgers but by definition couldn’t be better than Peterson (and there are only about a half dozen players in that group. No. 2, you draft Peterson, figuring there will be injuries, bye weeks, and maybe Elliott will need some time to get things going. I’m not a fan of that course (though maybe you’d be able to trade Peterson later). Finally, you could keep Bell and Rodgers, giving yourself better player distribution. This is the course I’d probably take right now (if a trade didn’t look likely). There’s not a huge value difference between Peterson and Rodgers. But I would feel better about that route if Rodgers gave some indication in the preseason that’s he’s going to be better than what we saw last year.
Question 4
Happy fantasy season once again. Been a subscriber for 20 years and FFI is simply the best! I'm squarely in the camp that thinks Aaron Rodgers is going to have a massive rebound season. In our 12-team league, passing TDs are 6 pts. We can keep 1 player in lieu of a 1st round pick. Rodgers is about my only keeper option (bad year last season) and I have the 6th pick. Most of the studs will be kept. I am thinking about trading the 6th draft position for the 12th, thinking that keeping Rodgers at 1.12 & then getting the 13th pick & picking at the turn from then on would be better value than keeping Rodgers at 1.06, and picking in the middle of each round thereafter. What do you think? Thanks for everything you do!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
If we’re going 6 points for touchdown passes, then I’ve got Rodgers at 14th for just this league. I have him as the No. 4 quarterback. So he would be just a decent keeper at 1.12 or 2.01. No way would I forfeit pick 1.06. I would rather hold out hope of maybe landing Ezekiel Elliott, LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown with that choice. It’s harder to find young franchise players at those positions. There are a lot of capable quarterbacks. Keep in mind with Rodgers that while he should be one of the top half-dozen touchdown throwers (31 last year), that’s a balanced offense that won’t necessarily put up a ton of yards. He averaged only 239 passing yards per game last year – a bottom-10 number.