It’s looking increasingly likely that Tom Brady will sit out the first four games of the season. But that’s not necessarily a huge problem for New England’s offense – it’s still very much in the mix to rank in the top 5 in scoring.
When Brady is in there, the Patriots will put the ball in the end zone. That offense has scored 57, 60, 44, 47 and 50 touchdowns the last five years. That’s 168 total – 4th-most in the league, and 20 more than any of the other 28 teams.
The Patriots should have a healthier offensive line this year, and they’re also adding Martellus Bennett into the mix as a second tight end. So if Brady were playing all 16 games, they would be as likely as any other team to lead the league in scoring.
We don’t expect you’ll see Brady in those first four games. His only remaining hope is to somehow connect on a Hail Mary with the U.S. Supreme court, which doesn’t look likely.
It should be Jimmy Garoppolo for the first four games, but that doesn’t mean the wheels are falling off. There’s no getting around a tough opener at Arizona, but the next three are all at home (against Miami, Houston and Buffalo).
If you figured the Patriots were going to score about 50 touchdowns with Brady at quarterback, it’s reasonable to say they would score 40 with Garoppolo. Using those figures, 12 games of Brady plus four games of Garoppolo would result in 47.5 offensive touchdowns in a 16-game season.
In my eyes, the Patriots are still in the mix to be a power player. On my board, I’ve got four offenses projecting to score about 48 touchdowns – Saints, Packers, Cardinals, Panthers. I’m not crazy about any of those groups (normally I have an offense at 50-52 touchdowns, but I’m not ready to put that kind of a grade on any team for 2016). Anyway, after those first four, I see the Patriots as the best of the remaining options.
If Brady were playing all 16 games, I would have the Patriots as the slight favorite to outscore everyone.
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New Orleans | 33.9 | 14.2 | 48.2 |
| Green Bay | 35.0 | 13.1 | 48.2 |
| Arizona | 32.8 | 14.9 | 47.7 |
| Carolina | 31.0 | 16.6 | 47.7 |
| New England | 32.2 | 14.2 | 46.4 |
| Dallas | 30.9 | 15.4 | 46.2 |
| Indianapolis | 34.7 | 9.4 | 44.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.6 | 13.0 | 43.5 |
| Seattle | 31.7 | 11.5 | 43.2 |
| NY Giants | 33.3 | 9.6 | 42.9 |
| Cincinnati | 28.0 | 14.6 | 42.6 |
| Oakland | 30.9 | 9.3 | 40.2 |
| San Diego | 31.7 | 8.2 | 39.8 |
| Buffalo | 23.4 | 16.0 | 39.4 |
| NY Jets | 28.2 | 11.0 | 39.2 |
| Tennessee | 23.7 | 14.7 | 38.4 |
| Jacksonville | 29.4 | 8.3 | 37.8 |
| Kansas City | 20.3 | 17.3 | 37.6 |
| Baltimore | 28.0 | 9.1 | 37.1 |
| Washington | 26.7 | 10.2 | 37.0 |
| Atlanta | 24.3 | 12.5 | 36.8 |
| Minnesota | 18.7 | 17.8 | 36.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.5 | 12.0 | 36.5 |
| Miami | 24.0 | 12.3 | 36.4 |
| Houston | 24.6 | 11.7 | 36.3 |
| Detroit | 27.4 | 8.8 | 36.2 |
| Chicago | 22.6 | 13.1 | 35.7 |
| Philadelphia | 21.9 | 11.4 | 33.3 |
| San Francisco | 20.3 | 12.8 | 33.1 |
| Denver | 19.7 | 13.3 | 33.0 |
| Los Angeles | 16.3 | 16.0 | 32.3 |
| Cleveland | 17.1 | 13.0 | 30.1 |
—Ian Allan