Camps are opening, and we’re moving into the second stage. We started by spending months and months analyzing and grading players, trying to carefully figure out how everything is most likely to play out. Now the teams are on the practice fields, and we’re starting to get more information to work with. It’s time to start tweaking some of the predictions – though sometimes that might be for the worse.

Consider Green Bay, for example. Davante Adams was a huge disappointment last year, catching only 50 of 94 passes. That’s a shockingly poor ratio, considering he was working with a possible Hall of Fame quarterback. He couldn’t beat press coverage, so it’s fair to wonder how long he’s going to remain the No. 3 receiver in this offense.

Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis did some nice things late in the year. They also have Ty Montgomery, who’s more experienced now heading into his second year. When Montgomery filled in for Adams early last year, recall, Montgomery caught a remarkably effective 15 of 19 passes.

So in the magazine, our conclusion was that Montgomery looked like kind of an interesting sleeper-type guy. Maybe he moves past Adams, and goes on to have a fantasy-relevant season.

These are the Packers, recall. They were pretty crappy last year, but it’s been an outstanding offense in the past. This is a rare offense where the third receiver (behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb) has some fantasy relevance.

So in the magazine, our leaning was that Adams was only slightly more likely than Montgomery to be the No. 3 receiver, but given how poorly he played last year, not really a guy you would want to draft. Montgomery, on the other hand, if he winds up in that No. 3 role would seem to have a good chance of being worth drafting.

That was the thinking going on.

But now training camp information is getting added into the mix, and it’s time for that forecast to get pushed and pulled.

In this case, both.

On Sunday, Bill Huber of Packer Report wrote that Adams has had a great camp. “Caught everything this summer.” That would seem to indicate that the best course is to re-adjust the draft board, flagging Adams as possibly being worth a last-round pick as an upside guy.

But the next day, Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette saw Adams saw Adams drop an end-zone pass and wrote he is having a "rough camp so far." That would speak to possibility that Adams at some point drops behind Montgomery (or Janis or Abbrederis).

Montgomery, by the way, is on the PUP list, after offseason ankle surgery.

So where does this leave us?

It’s still up in the air, as far as I can see. Right now, we’re just kind of pushing our food around the plate. I will try to avoid overreacting to the news flashes for now. What we really need to see is these guys on the field. When the team has played a couple of preseason games, we’ll have a chance to see who’s working with the first-unit offense, and we’ll have a chance to see which guys look good on the field.

—Ian Allan