The Steelers have been hot. The Patriots don’t have Rob Gronkowski and didn’t play that well last week. Could an upset be brewing in the AFC Championship? That’s a theory.

But ultimately New England still has Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and that tends to elevate them above most opponents. The Steelers usually have strong teams and strong defenses, but they haven’t been able to quite measure up against the Patriots.

Tom Brady is 5-1 against the Steelers the last 10 years, and he’s averaged 315 passing yards in those games, with 19 TDs and no interceptions. That works out to a passer rating of 127.5.

While the Steelers have been hot recently and seem to embrace playing on the road, I will be surprised if they make a serious run at New England in this game.

BRADY AGAINST THE NFL, LAST 10 YEARS
TeamW-LPctYPGTDIntRating
Chicago2-076%36270136.7
Tennessee3-075%294100134.7
Pittsburgh5-171%315190127.5
Jacksonville4-077%289112122.3
Detroit2-074%34561119.3
Dallas3-068%31792112.9
Rams2-069%28750109.7
Washington3-068%32182109.6
Cincinnati4-169%271112107.7
Buffalo15-265%2814510106.3
Green Bay1-163%20440105.8
Indianapolis8-167%270217105.3
Cleveland3-161%328101103.3
Minnesota2-063%19520101.8
Miami13-463%2783610101.3
Houston5-163%285134101.1
Atlanta2-062%29730101.0
San Diego5-069%277115100.9
Tampa Bay2-071%2675399.7
Denver6-462%28523497.8
Oakland2-060%2303095.4
Philadelphia2-160%3517293.3
NY Jets14-561%26434993.2
Kansas City3-162%1935293.1
NY Giants2-364%3159490.9
Seattle1-269%3466589.6
San Francisco1-157%3625286.3
Carolina1-167%2442283.6
Baltimore7-360%280151281.1
Arizona0-161%3161179.6
New Orleans1-158%2531365.7

—Ian Allan