I like to look at the “yards per completion” metric. I think it can give us an idea of what a quarterback is trying to do. And when a quarterback has a high YPC number, it’s not necessarily a good thing.
Consider, for example, Cam Newton and Philip Rivers. They were two of the three quarterbacks last year who averaged over 12.5 yards per completion. But they both had lesser seasons.
I would say that in both cases, Newton and Rivers tended to try to force too many downfield passes that simply weren’t there. Newton ranked last in completion percentage among starters, while Rivers threw a league-high 21 interceptions. Both teams finished with losing records.
In both cases, those quarterbacks (I think) would have been better settling for more of the short, cheap completions. The Panthers feel that way about Newton, because they used their first two draft picks on players who’ll catch short balls – Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.
Rivers potentially also could be helped by a better supporting cast. They’re trying to that offensive line shored up, they drafted Mike Williams, and they’ll get Keenan Allen back. Plus Hunter Henry could be a lot better in his second year.
Here are the numbers. With the yards, those are per-game numbers. And with the TDs and interceptions, that’s just what the player did in the games he started. I’m showing all quarterbacks with at least seven starts.
| QUARTERBACKS -- YARDS PER COMPLETION | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Per Com |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 70% | 309 | 38 | 7 | 13.25 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 15 | 53% | 233 | 19 | 14 | 12.99 |
| Philip Rivers, S.D. | 16 | 60% | 274 | 33 | 21 | 12.56 |
| Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 15 | 61% | 228 | 26 | 9 | 12.41 |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 15 | 63% | 282 | 31 | 13 | 12.25 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 12 | 67% | 296 | 28 | 2 | 12.21 |
| Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 16 | 67% | 307 | 25 | 12 | 12.11 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 65% | 263 | 21 | 11 | 11.95 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ | 11 | 57% | 220 | 11 | 14 | 11.88 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 61% | 255 | 28 | 18 | 11.85 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 68% | 229 | 23 | 4 | 11.79 |
| Trevor Siemian, Den. | 14 | 59% | 242 | 18 | 10 | 11.76 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 14 | 64% | 272 | 29 | 13 | 11.64 |
| Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 15 | 61% | 282 | 26 | 14 | 11.62 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 65% | 262 | 18 | 8 | 11.55 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 13 | 67% | 230 | 19 | 12 | 11.47 |
| Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 11 | 59% | 203 | 16 | 4 | 11.43 |
| Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 15 | 62% | 201 | 17 | 6 | 11.23 |
| Case Keenum, L.A. | 9 | 61% | 241 | 9 | 11 | 11.22 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 65% | 270 | 24 | 10 | 11.15 |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 70% | 325 | 37 | 15 | 11.05 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 66% | 276 | 40 | 7 | 11.04 |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 15 | 64% | 262 | 28 | 6 | 11.02 |
| Cody Kessler, Clev. | 8 | 66% | 171 | 6 | 2 | 10.78 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 16 | 63% | 251 | 26 | 16 | 10.68 |
| Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 67% | 233 | 15 | 8 | 10.67 |
| Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 59% | 244 | 23 | 16 | 10.61 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 62% | 236 | 16 | 14 | 9.97 |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 65% | 269 | 20 | 15 | 9.90 |
| Brock Osweiler, Hou. | 14 | 59% | 193 | 14 | 16 | 9.82 |
| Sam Bradford, Minn. | 15 | 72% | 258 | 20 | 5 | 9.81 |
| Jared Goff, L.A. | 7 | 55% | 155 | 5 | 7 | 9.72 |
Notes on some of the guys near the bottom of the table:
Sam Bradford, Vikings. He set an NFL record for completion percentage last year, but he was just dinking and dunking to get the ball out of his hands. Only Jared Goff averaged fewer yards per completion.
Brock Osweiler, Texans. He really struggled last year, averaging under 10 yards per completion. He had DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to work with, and he could do very little with them. Those receivers might benefit nicely from Houston having a new quarterback.
Joe Flacco, Ravens. While it’s easy to pick out the lousy quarterbacks, jumping on the pile with guys like Goff and Osweiler, Flacco was down in that group. He had a really lousy year. He hasn’t been good for some time, really. He’s entering his 10th year, and maybe he’s just not that good.
Eli Manning, Giants. He didn’t have much success getting it downfield last year. Typically, that’s his playing style – he’s more of a downfield bomber than a dink-and-dunk guy. They’ll have better short-range targets this year (they’ve added Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard should be better). That might help them do a better job getting Odell Beckham Jr. downfield for big plays.
Also note that Rodgers, Brees and Stafford all are below-average on this list. All had more success getting the ball downfield in previous seasons. Brees doesn’t have Brandin Cooks anymore, which could make it even harder for him to hit on the deeper balls this year. With the Packers and Lions, those receiving corps aren’t as fast and athletic as they have been in the past.