I just finished the weekly audit of the stat projections. As part of that process, I work through each team, looking at how the production is divvied up. I look at the team forecasts, comparing how the 32 teams compare in each category (I’ve got teams and individuals tied together). And I go down the player lists, making tweaks when I want to make a player appear a few spots higher or lower.
That report has been completed, and if you’re a subscriber you should be getting a notification email soon.
Our draft board features individual players. It’s fantasy football, after all, and players are what we’re picking. But it also makes some sense to look at the lay of the land from the macro level – which teams are going to gain the most yards and score the most touchdowns.
On my board, I’ve got four offenses with some potential to average about 3 touchdowns per week: Patriots, Packers, Saints and Rams (in that order). And I’m talking just offensive touchdowns here – no kick returns or defensive scores.
I’ve got five offenses projecting to average under 2 touchdowns per week: Bills (my clear No. 32), Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins and Broncos.
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New England | 31.4 | 17.6 | 49.0 |
| Green Bay | 35.8 | 11.8 | 47.7 |
| New Orleans | 28.3 | 17.8 | 46.1 |
| LA Rams | 28.3 | 16.6 | 45.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.7 | 12.6 | 43.4 |
| Philadelphia | 30.1 | 12.0 | 42.1 |
| LA Chargers | 29.1 | 11.4 | 40.5 |
| Minnesota | 25.9 | 13.4 | 39.4 |
| Atlanta | 25.3 | 12.3 | 37.6 |
| Houston | 28.8 | 8.8 | 37.6 |
| Jacksonville | 20.5 | 16.5 | 37.0 |
| Seattle | 26.4 | 10.6 | 37.0 |
| Baltimore | 23.8 | 12.6 | 36.5 |
| Kansas City | 24.2 | 12.3 | 36.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.0 | 8.3 | 36.3 |
| Dallas | 19.8 | 16.3 | 36.2 |
| Tennessee | 23.4 | 12.3 | 35.7 |
| NY Giants | 23.8 | 11.7 | 35.5 |
| Oakland | 23.8 | 11.7 | 35.5 |
| Carolina | 20.5 | 14.7 | 35.2 |
| Indianapolis | 25.0 | 10.1 | 35.0 |
| San Francisco | 22.9 | 12.2 | 35.0 |
| Washington | 24.8 | 10.2 | 35.0 |
| Detroit | 25.1 | 9.6 | 34.7 |
| Cincinnati | 25.0 | 9.6 | 34.6 |
| Chicago | 20.6 | 11.8 | 32.5 |
| Cleveland | 21.4 | 10.9 | 32.3 |
| Denver | 21.4 | 10.1 | 31.5 |
| Miami | 23.0 | 8.5 | 31.5 |
| Arizona | 20.2 | 10.4 | 30.6 |
| NY Jets | 17.9 | 11.2 | 29.1 |
| Buffalo | 17.1 | 9.8 | 26.9 |
For passing production, I’ve got the usual suspects at the top – Packers, Patriots, Steelers – and they’re followed by two teams that I think are being undervalued in fantasy drafts: Chargers and Bucs.
Bringing up the rear, I’ve got the Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Cardinals and Panthers in the bottom group.
For each team, you’re seeing expected passing yards per game, TD passes per game and fantasy points per game (using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards).
| PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Green Bay | 273 | 2.24 | 63.1 |
| New England | 288 | 1.96 | 60.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 276 | 1.92 | 58.3 |
| LA Chargers | 282 | 1.82 | 57.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 281 | 1.75 | 56.1 |
| New Orleans | 276 | 1.77 | 55.9 |
| Houston | 266 | 1.80 | 55.4 |
| Philadelphia | 251 | 1.88 | 55.2 |
| LA Rams | 253 | 1.77 | 53.6 |
| Seattle | 254 | 1.65 | 51.8 |
| Atlanta | 265 | 1.58 | 51.8 |
| Minnesota | 256 | 1.62 | 51.5 |
| Washington | 267 | 1.55 | 51.5 |
| Detroit | 262 | 1.57 | 51.3 |
| Indianapolis | 260 | 1.56 | 51.0 |
| Cincinnati | 242 | 1.56 | 49.2 |
| San Francisco | 262 | 1.43 | 49.1 |
| Kansas City | 247 | 1.51 | 48.9 |
| Baltimore | 241 | 1.49 | 47.9 |
| NY Giants | 241 | 1.49 | 47.9 |
| Oakland | 238 | 1.49 | 47.6 |
| Tennessee | 237 | 1.46 | 47.1 |
| Miami | 235 | 1.44 | 46.5 |
| Denver | 228 | 1.34 | 44.2 |
| Cleveland | 226 | 1.34 | 44.0 |
| Jacksonville | 228 | 1.28 | 43.3 |
| Chicago | 224 | 1.29 | 43.0 |
| Carolina | 220 | 1.28 | 42.5 |
| Arizona | 220 | 1.26 | 42.2 |
| Dallas | 220 | 1.24 | 41.8 |
| NY Jets | 210 | 1.12 | 38.9 |
| Buffalo | 190 | 1.07 | 36.1 |
For rushing production, I’ve still got Dallas up at No. 1. I realize there are some growing offensive line concerns there (so I’ve downgraded them slightly) but they should still be very good. New Orleans, New England, Jacksonville and the Rams join them in the top 5.
I’ve got five teams projecting to average under 20 fantasy points per game: Bucs, Lions, Dolphins, Bengals and Texans.
Numbers here include rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns per game, and fantasy points (6 for TD runs, 1 for every 10 rushing yards). This table doesn’t include receiving production by running backs.
| PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Dallas | 135 | 1.02 | 29.8 |
| New Orleans | 117 | 1.11 | 29.5 |
| New England | 117 | 1.10 | 29.3 |
| Jacksonville | 128 | 1.03 | 29.3 |
| LA Rams | 112 | 1.04 | 27.8 |
| Carolina | 127 | .92 | 27.4 |
| Minnesota | 114 | .84 | 24.8 |
| Baltimore | 112 | .79 | 23.8 |
| Atlanta | 114 | .77 | 23.7 |
| Kansas City | 113 | .77 | 23.6 |
| Philadelphia | 116 | .75 | 23.6 |
| Tennessee | 112 | .77 | 23.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 106 | .79 | 23.2 |
| Oakland | 115 | .73 | 23.2 |
| Green Bay | 112 | .74 | 23.0 |
| Chicago | 108 | .74 | 22.6 |
| NY Giants | 107 | .73 | 22.4 |
| Seattle | 118 | .66 | 22.4 |
| Cleveland | 113 | .68 | 22.2 |
| San Francisco | 100 | .76 | 22.2 |
| NY Jets | 106 | .70 | 21.8 |
| LA Chargers | 104 | .71 | 21.8 |
| Denver | 106 | .63 | 20.7 |
| Buffalo | 108 | .61 | 20.6 |
| Arizona | 100 | .65 | 20.4 |
| Indianapolis | 102 | .63 | 20.3 |
| Washington | 98 | .64 | 20.0 |
| Houston | 108 | .55 | 19.6 |
| Cincinnati | 97 | .60 | 19.3 |
| Miami | 103 | .53 | 18.8 |
| Detroit | 90 | .60 | 18.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 93 | .52 | 17.6 |
If you see anywhere that I've gone horribly wrong, let me know in the comments section.
—Ian Allan