Will Chris Godwin be the best of the Tampa Bay pass catchers? What's up with the Cheat Sheet format? Identifying the league's top offenses. Damien Williams vs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And more.
Question 1
I have been using the Fantasy Index since its inception! I was curious as to why you chose to eliminate the "per position" cheat sheets and replace them with the top overall format? Why couldn't you just add the overall format sheets in addition to the positional cheat sheets?
Paul Cummings (Buffalo, NY)
We considered that. And we could go back to the by-position as the main option. We’ve heard from some readers, and there’s definitely a group that’s in the habit of seeing the players grouped by position. They like it that way. When the August newsletters come out, there will need to be some by-position pages for that group. Others will prefer the new overall/mixed format. How those percentages break out, I’m not sure. (I believe more people will like the new format.) When we were publishing the magazine, I had concerns about spending too many pages on Cheat Sheets. As it stands, there are four different Cheat Sheet pages. If you try to publish all of those two different ways, then you’re up to eight different pages (with most readers interested in only one of those eight pages). Those would all be pages that could instead be used on more traditional content. We’ll continue to listen to readers and make adjustments going forward.
Question 2
Sounds like you think Chris Godwin is the player to have in the Bucs’ new offense. Where do you draft him? Second round? Third round? I agree with you that Godwin’s numbers likely will drop with Brady at QB, and I suspect Mike Evans and Gronk will also be involved. So how do you handle all this on draft day? Would you sign off on selecting both Godwin and Evans?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
Tampa Bay put up some wildly huge passing numbers last year – 320 yards per game, with 33 TDs. It will be hard for Tom Brady to match those kind of numbers. He’ll do a much better job than Jameis Winston of taking care of the ball and managing the offense, but I’m not sure that his overall production will be as good. Only a few teams in NFL history have averaged over 320 passing yards. That offense involves a lot of downfield passing. Can Brady make those throws? He was primarily a short-ball thrower in New England. And can he stay healthy when asked to hold the ball longer on slower-developing plays (exposing him to more hits)? I’m cooler than most on Brady, and where I have Evans and Gronkowski slotted, I’m confident they’ll be selected long before I would even consider them. I’ve got Godwin ranked a lot higher, but I don’t thinking I’ll be selecting him on any teams either. I’ve got Godwin a little lower than most, with players ranked in front of him that I expect will be chosen after Godwin in the vast majority of drafts. Calvin Ridley, for example. If you draft Ridley, I would think it’s 99 percent certain Godwin won’t be there for you in the next round.
Question 3
Which 5 teams are going to lead the league in overall offense?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
I’ve got Kansas City, Baltimore and New Orleans as my clear top 3 – the only offenses averaging at least 3 TDs per week. But not much difference between the next 11 (all finishing with 42-46 touchdowns). At the bottom, I’ve got three defenses averaging fewer than 2 TDs per week – Miami, Washington and Jacksonville.
| TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS FOR 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.5 | 17.0 | 56.5 |
| Baltimore | 32.6 | 17.6 | 50.2 |
| New Orleans | 34.1 | 13.9 | 48.0 |
| Seattle | 31.5 | 14.2 | 45.8 |
| Indianapolis | 28.0 | 17.4 | 45.4 |
| Dallas | 28.3 | 16.8 | 45.1 |
| San Francisco | 28.3 | 16.3 | 44.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 30.2 | 14.2 | 44.5 |
| New England | 24.3 | 19.7 | 44.0 |
| Tennessee | 27.2 | 16.5 | 43.7 |
| Philadelphia | 28.6 | 14.9 | 43.5 |
| Green Bay | 27.0 | 16.3 | 43.4 |
| Arizona | 24.6 | 17.4 | 42.1 |
| Minnesota | 25.0 | 16.8 | 41.8 |
| Cleveland | 23.8 | 17.0 | 40.8 |
| Atlanta | 29.9 | 10.4 | 40.3 |
| LA Rams | 23.4 | 16.6 | 40.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 28.0 | 12.0 | 40.0 |
| Houston | 25.6 | 13.9 | 39.5 |
| Detroit | 28.6 | 10.2 | 38.9 |
| NY Giants | 23.5 | 14.6 | 38.1 |
| Buffalo | 24.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 |
| Las Vegas | 23.8 | 13.0 | 36.8 |
| Denver | 24.0 | 12.3 | 36.3 |
| Cincinnati | 22.1 | 11.4 | 33.4 |
| Carolina | 19.8 | 13.4 | 33.3 |
| Chicago | 21.9 | 11.4 | 33.3 |
| LA Chargers | 20.3 | 12.5 | 32.8 |
| NY Jets | 24.0 | 8.0 | 32.0 |
| Jacksonville | 23.7 | 7.4 | 31.0 |
| Washington | 18.9 | 11.7 | 30.6 |
| Miami | 21.6 | 8.6 | 30.2 |
Question 4
Given the state of Penny's health, is Hyde the most probable backup in Seattle?
Ray Schmitt (Normal, IL)
Yes. It looks pretty certain Penny will begin the season on the PUP list. If you’re selecting him, it should be with the hope he turns into something pretty good in 2021. Hyde will open training camp as Seattle’s backup, and with Chris Carson having missed games with injuries five years in a row, I would think it’s pretty likely Hyde at some point will start some games.
Question 5
Frustrating months this year. I still am not sure what to make of the NFL and whether I should use my few remaining brain cells on this year’s information or save them for next year. Any thoughts as to whether we will have a season? Thanks for all your work for us.
Ed Taylor (Wenatchee, WA)
The NFL is hoping/planning to have a season. Its revenues are driven more by TV ratings than other sports, which could help. With baseball, 40 percent of the revenue comes from fans in the stands. With football, only 20 percent of the money comes from in-person attendance. But with the regular season two months away, it’s hard to see how it’s all going to come together. It’s a certainty that there will be positive tests for players, with at least some players on some teams missing action. There’s supposed to be 256 regular-season games, and I would be surprised if all of those games are played. Fantasy GMs should have some general discussion about how their fantasy leagues will respond if there are games that are canceled.
Question 6
Need some advice on who to keep. 8-team league. I am already keeping Mahomes and Ekeler. I can keep one of the following: Kareem Hunt in the 9th or Damien Williams in the 13th. I would love to have Williams for the first half of the season and Hunt for the 2nd half, but I have to choose only one. Any thoughts will be greatly appreciated. You provide a great product that I have used for years. I have won 14 championships combined in two leagues, and your information has been pivotal in a majority of them.
DOUGLAS BROWN (Fort Gratiot, MI)
I don’t think Damien Williams is getting kicked to the curb. I realize that the team drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Williams has been there and has a better command of the offense. I expect Williams will post better numbers in the first half of the season. November-December? We’ll see. Especially with him coming four rounds cheaper, I will keep Williams rather than selecting Hunt (signing up to wait for a Nick Chubb injury). Hunt might be a top-25 or 30 running back as a No. 2, but he won’t be special unless Chubb gets hurt.
Question 7
Every year you have a section evaluating the key additions and losses for each team. I did not see it in this year’s online magazine. Why not? It was always the first section I would read.
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
That’s been in the magazine every year since 1993. That was the first season under a new collective bargaining agreement (remember “Plan B” free agents?). It ended up on the cutting room floor this year, in part because it’s not fantasy-specific information. Instead, the purpose of the article was to identified which teams had improved the most over the offseason (in a general sense). While the article wasn’t printed on paper, it’s available online. Andy Richardson wrote up the 32 teams, and it was published online last week. Park 1 appeared on Tuesday. The other three parts can be obtained by clicking on the July 1-3 dates that appeared on that page, with Part 4 showing up on Friday. Before long, all four pieces will appear in one location on the website. The offseason report card feature might be back in the magazine next year; that hasn’t been decided yet, but feedback from readers such as yourself helps in that decision making.
Question 8
Long-time subscriber in a full-point, 3 keeper league. I have an early first round pick (which is the 4th round with three keepers) and would love to snag Edwards-Helaire. How early would I have to spend another pick on Damian Williams to make sure I have an RB in that starting spot at the beginning of the season? Should I let some other team deal with that headache with so many unknowns with no rookie camp and limited OTAs?
Eric Hachlinski (Bloomfield Hills, MI)
In 2020 leagues, I’m cooler than most on the rookie running backs. I’m seeing guys like Edwards-Helaire, Taylor and Swift go way before I would even consider them. In each of those situations, I’m not sure those guys will even be the best running backs on their teams. Damien Williams, Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson all have some ability, and they all have the advantage of having been around for a few years. The thinking gets different in dynasty and keeper leagues. All three of those rookie backs look solid enough long-term. (And I would put Cam Akers in the top tier of rookie running backs – maybe more likely than those guys to be strong this year.) I’m not saying Edwards-Helaire shouldn’t be considered with that first pick. That’s a great offense, and he should deliver a lot of good seasons eventually. But if you pick him, it probably should be followed a few rounds later by Williams.