More so than with any other position, streaming defenses makes a lot of sense to me. Fantasy teams typically only roster one of them (occasionally two), leaving lots of good choices available on waivers each week. So I like to look which ones get schedule advantages at different points.
Our defensive rankings indicate which defenses will be best over the course of the season, and opposition is worked into that. But for this exercise, I'm taking a look at which defenses have the best matchups the first month of the season, not thinking about October and beyond. If one of my favorite season-long defenses opens with 3 lousy matchups, I want to know about it.
We'll analyze each matchup closely in the Fantasy Index Weekly each week; this is a more general view of each one. I judged matchups to be good (1 point), bad (-1 point) or indifferent (0 points) based on the quality of the quarterback -- not just how good or bad he is, but if he's likely to be involved in lots of sacks and turnovers. Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are bad matchups (-1 points for the defense). Justin Fields and Trey Lance will probably be good matchups (1 point for the defense). Tua Tagovailoa might not be a great quarterback, but thus far he's just been a so-so matchup for defenses (sacks and turnovers), so I graded him as a zero. Matt Ryan has been a decent matchup, but Frank Reich's offense has been a poor one, so I graded him zero. Same for Jalen Hurts -- not a great matchup, not awful in the way that a Tom Brady is.
It's a rough exercise, but I think it gives us a sense of what some of the better defenses will be the first month of the season (and from those "better" ones based strictly on schedule, we can extra what the best ones will be based on both schedule and actual ability).
I like Tampa Bay and Kansas City's defense this season, but the early-season schedule does them no favors. The Bucs face Prescott, Rodgers and Mahomes in three of their games. Kansas City faces Herbert, Ryan and Brady in three of theirs.
At the other end of the spectrum, Cleveland's defense, with Myles Garrett (pictured) opens the year with four seemingly favorable matchups: Carolina, the Jets, the Steelers and the Falcons. They won't face a great quarterback until Week 5 (the Chargers). I view the Browns as a middle-of-the-pack type defense, but they'll likely be ranked higher than that the first month of the year.
Table below shows how the numbers shook out. I'm not saying anyone should look to pick up the Jets and Seahawks defenses to start the first month of the season. But their early matchups, at a glance, look more promising for sack and takeaway opportunities than some better defenses, at least based on the quarterbacks they'll be facing.
The defenses in bold are defenses that not only come out with positive numbers in this exercise, but are also ranked among our top 10 defenses for the 2022 season. Dallas, Denver and Philadelphia, then, look like three very good defenses to have rostered in September.
| FANTASY DEFENSES, FIRST FOUR WEEKS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mtch | Team | Wk1 | Mtch | Wk2 | Mtch | Wk3 | Mtch | Wk4 | Mtch | Total |
| 0 | Cleveland | CAR | 1 | NYJ | 1 | PIT | 1 | ATL | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | NY Jets | BAL | 1 | CLE | 0 | CIN | 1 | PIT | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Seattle | DEN | 0 | SF | 1 | ATL | 1 | DET | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Carolina | CLV | 0 | NYG | 1 | NO | 1 | ARZ | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | Chicago | SF | 1 | GB | -1 | HOU | 1 | NYG | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | Cincinnati | PIT | 1 | DAL | -1 | NYJ | 1 | NYG | 1 | 2 |
| -1 | Dallas | TB | -1 | CIN | 1 | NYG | 1 | WAS | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | Denver | SEA | 1 | HOU | 1 | SF | 1 | LV | -1 | 2 |
| 0 | Philadelphia | DET | 1 | MIN | -1 | WAS | 1 | JAC | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | Pittsburgh | CIN | 1 | NE | 0 | CLE | 0 | NYJ | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | Atlanta | NO | 1 | LAR | -1 | SEA | 1 | CLV | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | Detroit | PHI | 0 | WAS | 1 | MIN | -1 | SEA | 1 | 1 |
| 0 | Indianapolis | HOU | 1 | JAC | 1 | KC | -1 | TEN | 0 | 1 |
| -1 | LA Rams | BUF | -1 | ATL | 1 | ARZ | 0 | SF | 1 | 1 |
| 0 | Miami | NE | 0 | BAL | 1 | BUF | -1 | CIN | 1 | 1 |
| -1 | Minnesota | GB | -1 | PHI | 0 | DET | 1 | NO | 1 | 1 |
| 0 | New England | MIA | 0 | PIT | 1 | BAL | 1 | GB | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | NY Giants | TEN | 0 | CAR | 1 | DAL | -1 | CHI | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | San Francisco | CHI | 1 | SEA | 1 | DEN | 0 | LAR | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Washington | JAC | 1 | DET | 1 | PHI | 0 | DAL | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Baltimore | NYJ | 1 | MIA | 0 | NE | 0 | BUF | -1 | 0 |
| -1 | Buffalo | LAR | -1 | TEN | 0 | MIA | 0 | BAL | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Houston | IND | 0 | DEN | 0 | CHI | 1 | LAC | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Jacksonville | WAS | 1 | IND | 0 | LAC | -1 | PHI | 0 | 0 |
| -1 | LA Chargers | LV | -1 | KC | -1 | JAC | 1 | HOU | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | New Orleans | ATL | 1 | TB | -1 | CAR | 1 | MIN | -1 | 0 |
| -1 | Green Bay | MIN | -1 | CHI | 1 | TB | -1 | NE | 0 | -1 |
| -1 | Las Vegas | LAC | -1 | ARZ | 0 | TEN | 0 | DEN | 0 | -1 |
| 0 | Tennessee | NYG | 1 | BUF | -1 | LV | -1 | IND | 0 | -1 |
| 0 | Arizona | KC | -1 | LV | -1 | LAR | -1 | CAR | 1 | -2 |
| -1 | Kansas City | ARZ | 0 | LAC | -1 | IND | 0 | TB | -1 | -2 |
| -1 | Tampa Bay | DAL | -1 | NO | 1 | GB | -1 | KC | -1 | -2 |
--Andy Richardson