I get nervous selecting running backs from bad teams. If a team or offense is truly putrid, how often is it going to get anywhere close to the end zone? And with that in mind, how good can a running back like James Conner be?

The Cardinals, after all, look pretty certain to pretty terrible – not only the worst team in the league, but worse than most of the other really crappy teams that will come along in the next few years. They seem as if they’re hoping to finish with a poor record, landing the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft.

This being the case, Conner looks more like a depth-type running back rather than somebody you want to have to rely on.

That said, Conner was able to finish with top-20 numbers last year among running backs (using PPR scoring). That Cardinals team went only 4-13.

But let’s take a big-picture look at the lay of the land with running backs and terrible teams. In the 32-team era, 45 teams have finished seasons with 3 or fewer wins. Six of those teams had running back who finished with top-10 numbers (most recently James Robinson for the 2020 Jaguars). Another 13 had running backs who finished with top-20 numbers. The halfway point for those 45 running backs was ranking 24th at the position, and that seems like a reasonable expectation for Conner.

In the chart below, players finishing with top-10 numbers are in bold. Others who made the top 20 are tagged with black dots.

BEST RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WITH 0-3 WINS
YearPlayerW-LRunRecTDPPRRk
2002• Corey Dillon, Cin.2-1413112987245.916
2002James Stewart, Det.3-1310213336217.421
2004Kevan Barlow, S.F.2-148222127180.424
2005• Domanick Williams, Hou.2-149763376206.315
2005Antowain Smith, N.O.3-13659463100.545
2006• Kevin Jones, Det.3-136895208229.912
2006Justin Fargas, Oak.2-1465991194.048
2007• Steven Jackson, St.L.3-1310022716205.415
2007Ronnie Brown, Mia.1-156023895170.123
2008• Steven Jackson, St.L.2-1410423798230.115
2008• Kevin Smith, Det.0-169762868213.217
2008Larry Johnson, K.C.2-14874745141.040
2009Steven Jackson, St.L.1-1514163224248.88
2009Kevin Smith, Det.2-147474155187.221
2009Cadillac Williams, T.B.3-138232177174.026
2010Mike Goodson, Car.2-144523103134.238
2011Steven Jackson, St.L.2-1411453336225.810
2011• Adrian Peterson, Min.3-1397013913206.915
2011Donald Brown, Ind.2-14645865119.138
2012Jamaal Charles, K.C.2-1415092366245.59
2012Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.2-1441486276.054
2013• Alfred Morris, Was.3-131275787186.320
2013Ben Tate, Hou.2-147711404149.130
2014Darren McFadden, Oak.3-135342122122.636
2014Denard Robinson, Jac.3-135821244117.638
2014Bobby Rainey, T.B.2-144063152117.140
2014Bishop Sankey, Ten.2-145691332100.244
2015Duke Johnson, Cle.3-133795342164.324
2015Antonio Andrews, Ten.3-135201743114.546
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.3-1313132987232.110
2016• Isaiah Crowell, Cle.1-159523197209.114
2016• Carlos Hyde, S.F.2-149881639198.118
2016T.J. Yeldon, Jac.3-134653122139.734
2017• Duke Johnson, Cle.0-163486937220.111
2017Orleans Darkwa, NYG3-137511165137.736
2018David Johnson, Ariz.3-1394044610250.69
2019• Joe Mixon, Cin.2-1411372878225.413
2019Adrian Peterson, Was.3-138981425151.032
2019Kerryon Johnson, Det.3-12-1403127487.054
2020James Robinson, Jac.1-15107034410252.47
2020Frank Gore, NYJ2-14653892102.246
2021• D'Andre Swift, Det.3-13-16174527210.915
2021James Robinson, Jac.3-147672228177.924
2022David Montgomery, Chi.3-148013166181.724
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.3-13-19391655170.425

Some will say I’m being too hard on the Cardinals, suggesting that they won’t win 4 games. They get to play the similar weak Rams twice, after all. They’re also playing the Bears, Texans and Commanders, and upsets invariably occur. So some would say more reasonable to project the Cardinals to finish 4-13.

Looking at the 57 teams that have won 4 games in the 32-team era, I see four running backs who finished with top-10 numbers, along with another 14 who finished in the top 20 (including Conner last year). That’s slightly less than a third finishing with top-20 numbers.

For the 4-win teams, slightly more than half of those teams didn’t have a running back who ranked in the top 25 statistically using PPR scoring. That’s kind of my gut feel for Conner; if you pick him, it’s with the hope he’ll be about the 25th-best running back, providing some serviceable baseline production while healthy, but with limited upside.

(I smile as I write this, because careful readers will note that in the sample auction in the magazine, I actually purchased not only Conner but two other starting running backs from similarly underpowered teams – Cam Akers and Rachaad White. I may finish with the starting running backs for the three worst teams in the league.)

BEST RUNNING BACKS ON TEAMS WITH 4 WINS
YearPlayerW-LRunRecTDPPRRk
2002James Allen, Hou.4-125193020135.436
2002Anthony Thomas, Chi.4-127211636148.434
2003Marcel Shipp, Ariz.4-128301840131.435
2003Charlie Garner, Oak.4-125533864165.926
2003• Tiki Barber, NYG4-1212164613256.711
2003LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.4-12164572517444.12
2004Sammy Morris, Mia.4-125231246122.736
2004Lee Suggs, Cle.4-127441783130.234
2005Samkon Gado, G.B.4-12582777117.937
2005Kevan Barlow, S.F.4-125812413131.230
2005Curtis Martin, NYJ4-127351185139.327
2005• Chris Brown, Ten.4-128513277184.820
2005LaMont Jordan, Oak.4-12102556311296.86
2006Cadillac Williams, T.B.4-127981961135.436
2006Reuben Droughns, Cle.4-127581694143.734
2007Larry Johnson, K.C.4-125591864128.537
2007Warrick Dunn, Atl.4-127202384156.828
2007Justin Fargas, Oak.4-1210091884166.724
2007Thomas Jones, NYJ4-1211192172173.622
2008Julius Jones, Sea.4-12698662102.450
2008Cedric Benson, Cin.4-11-17471852125.243
2008Jamal Lewis, Cle.4-1210021784165.030
2009Rock Cartwright, Was.4-12228242180.057
2009Jamaal Charles, K.C.4-1211202979237.710
2010Fred Jackson, Buff.4-129272157187.222
2010• Knowshon Moreno, Den.4-127793728200.118
2010• Cedric Benson, Cin.4-1211111788206.916
2011Peyton Hillis, Cle.4-125871303111.744
2011LeGarrette Blount, T.B.4-127811485137.933
2012Darren McFadden, Oak.4-127072583156.525
2012• Mikel Leshoure, Det.4-127982149189.218
2012• LeSean McCoy, Phil.4-128403735205.316
2013Doug Martin, T.B.4-1245666170.257
2013Chris Ogbonnaya, Cle.4-122403432118.342
2013Steven Jackson, Atl.4-125431917148.431
2013Rashad Jennings, Oak.4-127332926174.524
2013• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.4-128033145189.119
2014Chris Ivory, NYJ4-128211237154.424
2014• Alfred Morris, Was.4-1210741558187.917
2015• Darren McFadden, Dall.4-1210893283201.713
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.4-123367559243.13
2016• Todd Gurley, LAR4-128853276200.215
2017• Frank Gore, Ind.4-129612454173.620
2017• Lamar Miller, Hou.4-128883276193.516
2018Isaiah Crowell, NYJ4-126851526140.735
2018Jalen Richard, Oak.4-122596071160.629
2018Matt Breida, S.F.4-128142615164.526
2019• Saquon Barkley, NYG4-1210034388244.111
2020Giovani Bernard, Cin.4-11-14163556160.130
2020Todd Gurley, Atl.4-126781649163.229
2020Miles Sanders, Phil.4-11-18671976174.423
2020David Johnson, Hou.4-126913148181.521
2021Rex Burkhead, Hou.4-134271863104.352
2021Saquon Barkley, NYG4-135932634150.630
2021Michael Carter, NYJ4-136393254156.429
2022Jonathan Taylor, Ind.4-12-18611434152.433
2022• James Conner, Ariz.4-137823008202.219

—Ian Allan