Those were pretty pungent seasons that Jamaal Williams and Dameon Pierce put together last year. Both averaged only 2.9 yards per carry.
With Pierce, it was surprising in that he very impressive as a rookie, with a couple of games over 130 rushing yards. He was running hard and busting tackles, looking like a good Rookie of the Year candidate until a late-season ankle injury.
Pierce was good enough as a rookie that I want to give him another look early this year. He’ll start off as a backup behind Joe Mixon, but I think Pierce is draftable (in the late rounds) in leagues where about half of No. 2 running backs are being selected.
With Williams, I don’t see him turning it around. He got a nice contract after punching in a bunch of short touchdowns for the Lions, but I don’t think he’s got enough juice left in his legs. I expect Williams will begin the season as the No. 3 back in New Orleans, behind Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. I don’t think Williams will be a top-80 running back on my board.
Out of curiosity, I pulled up the numbers for other running backs who’ve averaged under 3.0 yards per carry. And on this one, I’m looking only at guys who also got at least 100 attempts – guys who played similarly to what we saw out of Pierce and Williams last year.
Of the last 30 such backs, I see a pair who ran for over 1,000 yards the next year, and another five who at least averaged more than 4.0 per carry. So if we’re calling either of those qualities a successful rebound season, that’s a hit rate of about one in four. But another eight of those 30 backs didn’t play at all the next year.
| RUNNING BACKS AVERAGING UNDER 3 YARDS PER CARRY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Next Yr |
| 1993 | Reggie Cobb, T.B. | 221 | 658 | 3.0 | 3 | 153-579-3 |
| 1993 | Harold Green, Cin. | 215 | 589 | 2.7 | 0 | 76-223-1 |
| 1994 | Larry Centers, Ari. | 115 | 336 | 2.9 | 5 | 78-254-2 |
| 1994 | Marion Butts, N.E. | 243 | 703 | 2.9 | 8 | 71-185-4 |
| 1994 | Reggie Brooks, Was. | 100 | 297 | 3.0 | 2 | 2--2-0 |
| 1996 | • Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 198 | 587 | 3.0 | 7 | 264-1054-7 |
| 1997 | Larry Centers, Ari. | 101 | 276 | 2.7 | 1 | 31-110-0 |
| 1997 | Darnell Autry, Chi. | 112 | 319 | 2.9 | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 1999 | Adrian Murrell, Ari. | 193 | 553 | 2.9 | 0 | 20-50-0 |
| 1999 | Natrone Means, S.D. | 112 | 277 | 2.5 | 4 | 0-0-0 |
| 1999 | Byron Hanspard, Atl. | 136 | 383 | 2.8 | 1 | 0-0-0 |
| 2000 | Travis Prentice, Cle. | 173 | 512 | 3.0 | 7 | 14-13-2 |
| 2000 | Darnell Autry, Phil. | 112 | 334 | 3.0 | 3 | 0-0-0 |
| 2001 | • James Jackson, Cle. | 195 | 554 | 2.8 | 2 | 12-54-0 |
| 2001 | • Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 158 | 447 | 2.8 | 3 | 230-927-7 |
| 2001 | • Eddie George, Ten. | 315 | 939 | 3.0 | 5 | 343-1165-12 |
| 2002 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 197 | 529 | 2.7 | 3 | '5-14-0 |
| 2005 | Marcel Shipp, Ari. | 157 | 451 | 2.9 | 0 | 17-41-4 |
| 2006 | Kevan Barlow, NYJ | 131 | 370 | 2.8 | 6 | 0-0-0 |
| 2007 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 170 | 497 | 2.9 | 3 | 76-237-1 |
| 2008 | • Tim Hightower, Ari. | 143 | 399 | 2.8 | 10 | 143-598-8 |
| 2008 | Chris Perry, Cin. | 104 | 269 | 2.6 | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2010 | Chester Taylor, Chi. | 112 | 267 | 2.4 | 3 | 20-77-1 |
| 2012 | • Rashad Jennings, Jac. | 101 | 283 | 2.8 | 2 | 163-733-6 |
| 2013 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 152 | 436 | 2.9 | 2 | 93-366-2 |
| 2013 | Trent Richardson, 2TM | 188 | 563 | 3.0 | 3 | 159-519-3 |
| 2013 | Willis McGahee, Cle. | 138 | 377 | 2.7 | 2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2016 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 144 | 421 | 2.9 | 3 | 138-406-3 |
| 2017 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | 138 | 406 | 2.9 | 3 | 172-723-4 |
| 2018 | LeGarrette Blount, Det. | 154 | 418 | 2.7 | 5 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023 | Jamaal Williams, N.O. | 106 | 306 | 2.9 | 1 | ?-?-? |
| 2023 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 145 | 416 | 2.9 | 2 | ?-?-? |
—Ian Allan