I've written detailed previews over the course of the week, so I don't have a ton of new things to say. But I will try to offer a few thoughts, based on both inside (injuries and whatnot) and outside (point spreads) developments.
Patriots at Broncos: The opening line had New England favored by 4.5. It quickly jumped to 5.5, at which point I placed a small bet on Denver, thinking if the line moved further, it would get smaller. That's happened; I see it at 4.5 again this morning. This doesn't necessarily mean much, I can't really say for sure if it's smart bettors or stupid ones putting money on the Broncos. Maybe the news that J.K. Dobbins is out will cause the spread to shift further in favor of New England.
My general feeling on this game is that while Jarrett Stidham shouldn't be expected to make the clutch throws and runs to win this game, as Bo Nix did for the Broncos literally all season, nor should be expected to meltdown and fall on his face. (Although that could happen; we have no idea how he'll respond to the pressure of playing in the biggest game of his career.) But he's been in the offense for three years and played pretty well in low-stakes situations -- August, and playing out the string at the end of the 2023 season -- so it's not out of the question he'll play capably in this high-stakes one.
Allow me if I may to look at the New England defense, which had a below-average pass rush (35 sacks), and just remove the clown show offenses they faced this season: Jets twice, Browns, Dolphins backups. (I'm still leaving in Giants, Saints, Titans and Bengals without Joe Burrow.) New England allowed 21 points and 2.3 touchdowns per game against that schedule. Average. Can it shut down the offensive product the Broncos have available, sure. But not a defense to be feared.
Denver's defense, monster pass rush aside, is also not terrifying. Better offenses recently (Jaguars, Bills) moved the ball just fine, in Denver. I'm OK with the idea of about a 25-20 New England win. But put the teams on the field, and there will probably be a play or two that could decide things. One team returns a punt or a kickoff. There's a sack-fumble return touchdown or Pick Six. TreVeyon Henderson has a breakaway run, Marvin Mims gets behind the defense. Stuff happens.
Push comes to shove, I expect New England will probably be better on offense and come away with a key late takeaway or something. But should be a close game. In my playoff league I'm using Maye (my early choices forced me to stick on the AFC side with quarterbacks), Kayshon Boutte (already used Diggs) and Hunter Henry; I'll be using NFC QBs and TEs next week, and either NFC WRs or hoping the Broncos win. Oh, my over-under bets include Stidham, Pat Bryant and Mims (over) and Boutte (under; with everyone else healthy, I think he'll be more of a red-zone option than a guy catching 5-6 passes, but I'm a little shaky there). I think Rhamondre and RJ Harvey are good scoring possibilities.
Rams at Seahawks: The other bet that I made right when I first saw the spreads was Seattle by just 2.5. Their defensive dominance over just about everyone for most of the season is hard to ignore. There is, of course, the exception, which is the Rams themselves. Los Angeles led 30-14 in the fourth quarter at Seattle about a month ago before a Rashid Shaheed punt return, Darnold drive and a pair of 2-point conversions got the Seahawks to overtime, where they pulled it out.
Aside from Seattle's defensive performance against most of its schedule, the Rams played their best defensive ball the first half of the year. In the first 11 games, Los Angeles allowed an average of 16 points. In its last seven, starting with the upset loss at Carolina and including the loss at Seattle, they allowed an average of 28 points; 4 TDs in half of those games. They barely pulled out both the Carolina and Chicago games the past two weeks, while Seattle was busy demolishing a San Francisco team that split with the Rams this year.
At the risk of drawing the ire of this site's vocal Seattle fans, one difference in this game is that Matthew Stafford has won some notable big games, while Sam Darnold just won his first. In the two games these teams played this year, Stafford did not throw any interceptions, while Darnold threw 6. So it is fair to say that if the game relies on one quarterback coming up big late, the elder statesman is a little more proven in this area. I think that comparison is probably the best explanation for a point spread that's closer than the two defenses, Seattle's homefield advantage, and some other things warrant. Maybe the Seahawks will miss Zach Charbonnet, as well.
For this one, I bet on an anytime touchdown from Kenneth Walker, and yardage overs for AJ Barner (30ish) and Kyren Williams (rushing; 53 I think). I'm expecting a close game but Seattle having the better defense makes me think they'll be winning it by something like 27-23 or so.
Anyone who has different takes is certainly welcome to weigh in; there are no wrong answers. If you have a favorite bet, please feel free to share. Hoping for a couple of good games and the Super Bowl matchup most want, while keeping in mind that seems to happen less often than you'd like. At least Stidham versus Darnold would be fun to argue about.
--Andy Richardson
