Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Brandin Cooks too small to be a prime-time player? The dangers of ADP. Are the Saints running or passing this year? And where is the right spot for DeMarco Murray?
Question 1
It appears Brandin Cooks is getting a lot of love in drafts this year. I see a lot of veteran big money guys taking him 3rd round. I know he has Drew Brees for QB and some good talent but I am apprehensive. How many Smurf-Like WRs have produced difference maker type years? He has upside but can his body hold up to a 16 game schedule. Can he dominate without Jimmy Graham?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
I don’t worry too much about size with wide receivers. I’m more interested in whether they can play. And I liked what I saw Cooks doing after the catch last year, especially in the preseason. He’ll be their No. 1 guy, and I’m sure that (at worst) he’ll be a top-20 receiver. In the last 10 years, 42 receivers have put up at least 200 fantasy points in a season. Ten of those guys (in bold) weren’t any bigger than Cooks.
| TOP RECEIVERS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Points |
| 2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 98 | 1,493 | 0 | 23 | 287.3 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 96 | 1,681 | 11 | 16 | 265.2 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 129 | 1,698 | 13 | 14 | 261.1 |
| 2005 | Steve Smith, Car. | 103 | 1,563 | 25 | 13 | 236.8 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 98 | 1,519 | 0 | 13 | 229.9 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111 | 1,619 | 0 | 11 | 229.9 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 88 | 1,320 | 0 | 16 | 228.0 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 87 | 1,646 | 88 | 9 | 227.4 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 92 | 1,430 | 0 | 14 | 227.0 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 122 | 1,964 | 0 | 5 | 226.4 |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 81 | 1,355 | 5 | 15 | 226.0 |
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 80 | 1,289 | 0 | 16 | 224.9 |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 84 | 1,492 | 0 | 12 | 221.2 |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 118 | 1,508 | -2 | 11 | 216.6 |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 68 | 1,263 | 0 | 15 | 216.3 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 96 | 1,431 | 0 | 12 | 215.1 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 122 | 1,569 | 30 | 9 | 213.9 |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101 | 1,569 | 0 | 9 | 212.9 |
| 2012 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 92 | 1,382 | -5 | 12 | 211.7 |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 104 | 1,510 | 4 | 10 | 211.4 |
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 77 | 1,448 | -18 | 11 | 209.0 |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 95 | 1,366 | 0 | 12 | 208.6 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98 | 1,426 | 0 | 11 | 208.6 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 82 | 1,536 | 3 | 9 | 207.9 |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 78 | 1,331 | -1 | 12 | 207.0 |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 72 | 1,162 | 4 | 15 | 206.6 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 91 | 1,287 | 37 | 12 | 206.4 |
| 2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 83 | 1,264 | 0 | 13 | 206.4 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 91 | 1,305 | 35 | 12 | 206.0 |
| 2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 100 | 1,295 | 0 | 12 | 205.5 |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 115 | 1,575 | 0 | 8 | 205.5 |
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 103 | 1,409 | 41 | 10 | 205.0 |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97 | 1,350 | 38 | 11 | 204.8 |
| 2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 110 | 1,499 | 4 | 9 | 204.3 |
| 2012 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 94 | 1,434 | 0 | 10 | 203.4 |
| 2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 115 | 1,389 | 3 | 10 | 203.2 |
| 2005 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 84 | 1,483 | 3 | 9 | 202.6 |
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 63 | 1,167 | 137 | 12 | 202.4 |
| 2013 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 93 | 1,233 | 1 | 13 | 201.4 |
| 2007 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 100 | 1,409 | 0 | 10 | 200.9 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101 | 1,404 | 44 | 9 | 200.8 |
| 2005 | Santana Moss, Wash. | 97 | 1,432 | 33 | 9 | 200.5 |
Question 2
Are you going to have an average draft position sheet or is the "all position” rankings the same thing?
BERNARD DOBRZYKOWSKI (Granger, IN)
The “All Position” sheet is the order we suggest you pick them. Realistically, you should be looking at the overall top 30-50. After that, picks start being influenced by who’s on your roster (if you’ve got three stud receivers, then you might be taking good quarterbacks in the middle round or using more of your backup slots on running backs). One must be careful when working with ADP data. Is it culled from leagues using the same scoring system as yours? Does it include dynasty or keeper drafts? I noticed on the MyFantasyLeague site a few weeks back that all of the rookies were ranked way higher than where you would ever select them. And you must realize that it’s a moving target. The current ADP data might have Antonio Gates as a top-10 tight end, but he’s been suspended for September. He’ll move down in the ADP as more drafts occur (and start outweighing the drafts that were held in June).
Question 3
In the magazine's mock draft, DeMarco Murray lasted until the middle of the second round. That seems awfully late for a guy who led the league in rushing last year by a wide margin and who is the main back in Chip Kelly's run-based offense. In a standard (no PPR), 10-team league, isn't Murray a clear-cut, first-round pick? On the other hand, he will have Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles vulturing touches. Would you draft Mathews sooner than the typical handcuff, given his potential should Murray go down? I'm intrigued by the Eagles' offense this year, and I'd like to know how you'd handle their running game heading into fantasy drafts.
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
Murray has had a lot of injuries, so I think it makes sense to back up that selection with Ryan Mathews. That’s how I played it in the Mock Auction (see page 54). Six running backs went for $40-plus dollars, and Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers went for $39-40. Murray was the No. 9 player on the board, at $38 (out of $200). And with the number of injuries he’s endured (both at Dallas and at Oklahoma) I thought it was logical to insure that selection with Mathews (who should be just as productive if he winds up in a full-time role). I spent $8 on Mathews, which is a little more than I wanted, but I figured it was pretty much required. I also spent $8 on Knile Davis to back up Charles. I like the way the Eagles run the ball in that up-tempo system. I think that will be a top-5 running team, and they’re as likely as anyone to finish up in the top spot. The offensive line should be better this year (it had some injuries in 2014) and Murray might be a better fit for that system than LeSean McCoy. McCoy is a dancing, make-you-miss back, and they think they’ll be better with Murray using more of a decisive, downhill style.
Question 4
I've read the Saints team description in your magazine and I don't understand the theory that the Saints are suddenly going to convert to more of a run-based offense. They traded Jimmy Graham ("selling high" to the Seahawks in my opinion) and their offensive line will be better as a result, but it's the same QB and coaching staff. It seems like Spiller is an upgrade over Pierre Thomas, so I'd expect them to continue making their RB's a key component in the short passing game. Other than a few random comments by Sean Payton, what is telling you that Brees won't be throwing for 300 yards a game like in the past?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
When I saw they’re going to run more, I’m not suggesting they’re going to turn into the Seahawks or Panthers. But there needs to be more balance in their offense, and I think they know that. In the 2012 and 2013 seasons, they were top 2 in passing and 25th in rushing. Those days, I think, are gone. They unloaded Jimmy Graham, so they don’t have nearly as much firepower at tight end, and I think they look pretty mediocre at wide receiver. Marques Colston is really slowing down (they forced him to take a pay cut) and they traded away Kenny Stills. I’ll agree that C.J. Spiller could adequately replace Pierre Thomas, but Mark Ingram will be a big part of that backfield, and he ain’t much in the passing game. The Saints averaged 43 touchdown passes in the three seasons prior to last year, but I think those days are gone. They slipped down to 33 TD passes last year, and I think that’s what they are now.
Question 5
First off, congrats on 25 years of publishing of the Experts Poll! I have counted on it yearly as one of my first sources to gauge the competition as soon as possible. However, I was disappointed in this year’s mock draft. We all can appreciate individuals own preferences but this year, Scott Sachs choice to pick Aaron Rodgers with the 2nd overall pick totally ruined my evaluation of how some of my drafts go. His excuse of selecting him because of the amount of games on national television was also lame. Please consider replacing that "expert" for next year’s edition and relay the message that his site he represents will now be not under my consideration for visiting.
Antonio Lopez (Wisconsin (where Rodgers still won't be picked 2nd overall))
I was very disappointed. I can somewhat understand the selection. Rodgers might have a huge, Manning-like year, tossing 45 touchdowns. If that’s the case, he’ll probably be better than the running back many would have selected in that spot. But when asked to justify the selection, Sachs started wandering off into some kind of half-baked idea about his quarterback playing in more nationally televised games. What? To me, if you’re going to zig where everybody else zags, then you need back that up with the reasoning. “Hey, everybody else would have chosen Eddie Lacy or Adrian Peterson here, but here’s why I selected Aaron Rodgers instead.” Ideally, you’re able to string together some kind of argument that readers hadn’t considered. In this case, Sachs didn’t even make an attempt to put together a case.
Question 6
I am thinking of taking my first foray into the NFFC. Any suggestions/tips? Specifically, when to enter one of these leagues to gain easiest competition (it will be the online game) and strategies for the latter half of the 35-player draft (best-ball scoring) ... 12-team ppr/doubleflex. Thanks!
brian postera (Turners Falls, MA)
I haven’t played that specific game, and I’ve never tried a 35-round draft. You sure that’s right? That seems like a lot of players, especially with best-ball scoring. I haven’t been in such a format, so I’m hesitant to start handing out stone tablets. In dealing with some rankings for the double-flex option, however, it’s my opinion that you can pretty much toss out positions. Just consider RB-WR-TE to be one big position. Because if you’re starting 2 RB, 2 WR, a TE and two flexes, you can use four wide receivers. So while many owners in that league will without much thought march to the concept that running backs must be selected first, there’s no reason that you instead might select wide receivers with your first four picks. In a PPR format, if your first two picks include Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr., that can be a very good thing. In preparing for such a draft, I recommend deciding upon how many RB-WR-TE will be selected. Then simply go off overall value for those guys. When you’ve got your list of 180-200 of those guys (or whatever it is) then double-check to make sure you have enough RB, WR and TE in there, but you will. The only caveat is that in the second half of your draft (after you’ve got your starters and key reserves) it makes more sense to start picking handcuff tailbacks than lesser wide receivers who’ll finish with better overall numbers but don’t have that upside to become special when injuries occur.
Question 7
When will the IDP excel projections be available?
Shaun Hawkins (Albany, GA)
I’m told those will be on the website today.
Question 8
Keep 3 of these 5, 14-team league, $200 draft budget: C.J. Anderson $32, Carlos Hyde $23, Emmanuel Sanders $20, Mark Ingram $16, Travis Kelce $10.
Eric Stroker (Berkley, MI)
I haven’t run the exact numbers, but I don’t think it’s even close. Anderson, Sanders and Kelce. Those are your guys. I have Anderson and Kelce as top-5 players at their positions. Sanders I have in the second tier of receivers, with a good chance to finish in the top 10 and unlikely to not at least be in the top 15.
Question 9
I am in a 14-team PPR dynasty league (we keep 10 offensive players). I have Kyle Rudolph, but I have the opportunity to trade a low-round pick for either Jordan Reed or Eric Ebron. I feel my team is ready to win this year, but I also want to consider the long run. Do I make one of the moves and let Rudolph go, or hold onto him? I noticed that you had Reed below Rudolph, and Ebron one slot above Rudolph in the dynasty rankings. Does our scoring system change your rankings enough to make the switch over Rudolph and his checkered injury history?
Shaun Hawkins (Albany, GA)
It’s a crapshoot. Rudolph was very good two years (especially around the end zone), but he’s been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. If he can somehow stay healthy, he might be pretty good. Similarly, Reed has caught lots of passes in spurts, but he’s had problems staying healthy. Not much difference between these guys, but I would be inclined to roll the dice on Ebron. He was terrible last year, but perhaps he comes on some in his second year.
Question 10
Standard league. 14 teams, 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving, 6 pts per TD. Which is better: Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram and Antonio Brown? Or Demarco Murray, Roddy White and Frank Gore?
Chris Winder (San Ramon, CA)
Not even close. On my projections, I’ve got Miller-Ingram-Brown worth a combined 511 points, and Murray-White-Gore worth only 489.