Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Which receivers are most effective around the goal line? Why is the Index so low on the Black Unicorn? And are wide receivers more reliable than running backs?
Question 1
Ian, can you give me the top ten "slot" pass receivers for 2015 season? They are better for the inside the 10 yard line TDs.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
By our count there are 26 wide receivers who’ve seen at least 20 pass attempts inside the 10 over the last three years. Golden Tate has the best overall numbers of that group, scoring on 11 of his 22 targets. Jordy Nelson, surprisingly, has been the worst, scoring on only 6 of 28 throws. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but this is how it’s gone …
| WIDE RECEIVERS INSIDE 10 (2013-15) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Com | TD (2Pt) | Pct |
| Golden Tate | 22 | 17 | 11 | 50.0% |
| Calvin Johnson | 26 | 14 | 12 | 46.2% |
| Brandon Marshall | 37 | 20 | 15 (2) | 45.9% |
| Randall Cobb | 35 | 21 | 15 (1) | 45.7% |
| Wes Welker | 20 | 14 | 9 | 45.0% |
| Dez Bryant | 35 | 17 | 15 | 42.9% |
| Julian Edelman | 28 | 17 | 10 (2) | 42.9% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 29 | 20 | 11 (1) | 41.4% |
| Roddy White | 20 | 12 | 8 | 40.0% |
| James Jones | 28 | 14 | 9 (2) | 39.3% |
| Antonio Brown | 39 | 24 | 12 (3) | 38.5% |
| Eric Decker | 39 | 21 | 15 | 38.5% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 29 | 16 | 11 | 37.9% |
| Pierre Garcon | 28 | 11 | 10 | 35.7% |
| Jarvis Landry | 21 | 11 | 6 (1) | 33.3% |
| Eddie Royal | 22 | 13 | 7 | 31.8% |
| Rueben Randle | 22 | 10 | 7 | 31.8% |
| A.J. Green | 26 | 11 | 8 | 30.8% |
| Vincent Jackson | 23 | 7 | 6 (1) | 30.4% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 38 | 16 | 10 (1) | 28.9% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 35 | 12 | 9 (1) | 28.6% |
| Andre Johnson | 30 | 14 | 8 | 26.7% |
| Julio Jones | 24 | 12 | 6 | 25.0% |
| Anquan Boldin | 20 | 7 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Cecil Shorts III | 20 | 7 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Jordy Nelson | 28 | 12 | 6 | 21.4% |
Question 2
The Patriots trade for Martellus Bennett and you don't think they will utilize him? I view Martellus as a top 15 TE with top 10 potential. For him not to be ranked in your top 20 I think is a mistake. I have to go on record and disagree with you on Travis Benjamin as well. He goes over 1,000 yards and scores 6-8 TDs. Especially with the Johnson injury now.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Maybe. Nobody likes multiple tight ends more than Bill Belichick, and that dates back all the way to his days as an assistant with the Lions in the ‘70s. Ten years ago, they were working double tight ends with Daniel Graham, Benjamin Watson and Christian Fauria. And they peaked with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez caught 79 passes and 7 TDs in 2011, and he was on pace for similar numbers the next year before he got hurt. Hernandez never got on the field again because of all the off-field legal incidents (shooting people and whatnot). The Patriots got 26 catches and 6 TDs out of Tim Wright in 2014, and Scott Chandler caught 23 and 4 last year. Bennett is a lot better than those guys; he caught 90 passes two years ago, but I don’t believe he’ll be used quite as extensively as Hernandez. I don’t think he’s quite as good as pass catcher, and the Patriots have a lot of looks they can throw at you. Gronk, Edelman, Amendola, Hogan, Lewis and others. Lots of options in that offense, and they’re also going without Brady for the first four games. As for Benjamin, I think he’ll be a deep threat. I think you’ll see Keenan Allen catching a ton of slant passes and Danny Woodhead catching lots of dumpoff balls. They’ve got Antonio Gates and others. With Benjamin, they should primarily be trying to hit him on the vertical balls. I think he’ll average over 16 yards per catch. Tough to get up to 1,000 yards and 7 TDs in that kind of a role.
Question 3
I've noticed over the last several seasons that running backs are prime targets for injury. Is it really a good strategy to pick up players so injury prone early in the draft, when I could pick up respectable wide receivers and save my RB picks for later?
kody bochard ()
Sounds like a solid strategy to me. I have employed it many time. You pick difference-making franchise-type receivers, then acquire as much depth as you can at running back – knowing that some of those guys will step up exceed expectations for at least part of the season. But I posted some stat charts last month. I looked at top-10 running backs and top-10 wide receivers, then looked at how those guys fared in the next season. I was surprised when those numbers showed wide receivers being only slightly more reliable. We don’t tend to think of wide receivers as injury risks, but it happens. Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson last year.
Question 4
Looking at the current crop of young quarterbacks. Who has the highest ceiling, least injury prone and better fit in a dynasty league? Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Tyrod Taylor or Kirk Cousins. I want to take a later-round flyer on one of these guys. Any help would be appreciated.
Wayne Phillips (Denver, CO)
I would go with Winston. I like his ability to stand in the pocket and sling it. I like his willingness to drive it downfield, and I like his ability to not get too worried about throwing interceptions. I think he’s a gunslinger-type guy. Reminds me of Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. Had a bunch of off-field issues at Florida State, but I think he’ll grow and mature. Roethlisberger, for example, is a lot better off the field now than he was earlier in his career. Winston also has some running ability. Mariota has the elite mobility, but I’m not quite sure how that offense is going to come together. Can he do it as a pocket passer? And does he have the mentality to take advantage of his great running skills. I worry about Taylor’s ability to stay healthy.
Question 5
Been a big fan for a long time. Just curious. Is there a particular position that you've found you have the most success in predicting? And the most difficult? For me, it seems like every year I'm loaded at WR. For some reason, I've always been able to nail that position. Just curious about you.
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
With the Krohn Bowl, when your team wins your team MVP is enshrined on the trophy. There’s an electric football field involved, and you put one of your custom-painted figures on that field. I’ve been fortunate enough to win it seven times, and four of those brown-and-bronze Lewiston Cattle Prods are wide receivers – Mike Quick, Andre Rison, Antonio Freeman and Antonio Brown. Freeman was also a key piece of another championship team, and Brown also helped me get to the title game two years ago (ending in a loss against the hated Donner Pass Carnivores). So I would say wide receiver. In general, I’ve had the most luck when spending my money on that position, and figuring out the quarterback and running back positions later on. I have had more success finding those guys on the waiver wire. Two of my other enshrined players were quarterbacks found on the waiver wire – Kordell Stewart in the ‘90s and Michael Vick in 2010. Earlier I pointed out that the raw numbers suggest running backs are almost as reliable as wide receivers historically (when looking at top-10 players at each position the next year). But for me, I’ve had a lot more luck finding running backs who turn into something good – like DeAngelo Williams last year. That’s harder to do with wide receivers, I think.
Question 6
We are a PPR league. Been using the mag since I first started. I am in a 12-team keeper league. I have C.J. Anderson as a keeper for 2 more years. I will be drafting 3rd overall in every round. The keeper I keep this year will be kept for 3 seasons. I can only choose one of these players. WR are Brandin Cooks, Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins, and Emmanuel Sanders. RB are Jamaal Charles, Thomas Rawls and DeAngelo Williams. I will be able to draft Peterson, Ezekiel Elliot or David Johnson. Who would you keep? I am thinking Cooks or Nelson or Charles and maybe Rawls. A little help would but greatly appreciated .
BRUCE SADLER (Lakeland, FL)
If we’re talking about protecting players for three years, why am I seeing names like Nelson, Charles and Peterson? Are any of those guys even in the league in 2018? Peterson almost certainly is entering his final year with the Vikings. Nelson and Charles are coming off ACL surgeries. The keeper decision, I think, is Cooks or Watkins. I lean Cooks, but not by much. With the running backs, I would be hoping to draft Elliott or Johnson.
Question 7
You have heard this countless times but, your info has put me in the playoffs every year and helped me win some championships. So, thanks! The one thing your website doesn't offer as much is actual drafting strategy. I have tried different strategies with varying success. Last year I was in three leagues and was in the playoffs in all three. The drafting strategy I used last year seemed to give me very solid teams with consistent scoring. I went WR and RB for the first 8 rounds. I waited until the 9th round before drafting a QB and then picked up a TE. How would you rate a strategy like this when drafting for a 12-team PPR league? Once again, thanks for your help!
Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)
I will sign off on the strategy of waiting on a quarterback. Especially in a PPR format, and especially this year. If you wait until the ninth round to select a quarterback, you’ll probably still get somebody along the lines of Carson Palmer or Eli Manning, and you can bolster that position further shortly after by drafting a second quality arm – maybe Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford. Quarterback position is deeper this year than ever before. Tough to justify selecting a quarterback in the fourth or fifth round, because you’re just not sure you’re getting much separation over what will be available later.