Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Individual kick returners. How to clean up at an auction. Is Mark Ingram overrated? And picking at the top of a dynasty draft.
Question 1
I notice you don't project return yardage in your stat projections, just TDs. I know it's early, but was wondering if you could give a quick rundown of how the top 10-15 return guys are lining up? Obviously the ones that also have a shot at cracking the lineup on offense factors into it. I know you're busy, but thanks for all you do!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
It’s early, so I’m just thinking out loud. I’m going off the top of my head, really. But the following players (I think) will be either starters, No. 3 receivers or change-of-pace backs and also return kicks: Sammie Coates (kickoffs), Marqise Goodwin (kickoffs), Antonio Brown (punts), Tyler Lockett (both), Rashad Greene (punts), Travis Benjamin (punts), Darren Sproles (punts), Ted Ginn Jr. (punts), Tavon Austin (punts), Bruce Ellington (both).
Question 2
A few years ago my league saw the light and switched to an auction format. I was able to win back-to-back championships following the switch by simply holding back in the draft, letting everyone else overspend, and then drafting a solid group of players at excellent value. Last season didn't go quite so well however, as the rest of the league adapted to my strategy. I realize every draft is different, but can you offer some insight about how to effectively approach an auction draft?
James Moskie (New York, NY)
Auctions are getting harder as more have done a few and gotten a better feel for what players are worth. For me, I go in feeling that I’ll probably be holding back (with the best deals coming later on) but also being aware that if everybody is sitting on their wallet, the correct play will be to make some buys early. I always walk in with a map showing what everyone is worth. There is a player value next to each name. And the general rule of thumb is to big on anybody at under 70 percent of their value. Typically avoid anybody once they get to 80 percent of value (that is, if a wide receiver is “worth” $20, my final bid would be $16). And for those guys in the 70-80 percent range, decision (on whether to bid) is based on the player and how the auction is going. If people are aggressively spending, you should be getting more confident that you’ll be getting player for under 70 percent of value. Everyone’s preferences are different, remember, and that will help you along. If a whole bunch of people don’t want to bid, you may have to get more aggressive are make some buys at guys around and over 80 percent.
Question 3
I have two dynasty drafts next week and have the 3rd pick in both of them. I'm pretty sure Ezekiel Elliott will be going first in both. Can you give me a short list of who you would be looking at with this first pick? It seems pretty wide open this year with rookies, but would love to land a stud! Love the product I have been using you for 20 years now.
DAMON DUHON (Baton Rouge, LA)
Elliott definitely goes first, then it gets a lot trickier. Right now I would have a short list of Corey Coleman, Derrick Henry and Sterling Shepard. And in that order. You might adjust the order based on scoring system, team makeup or personal preference. Let’s see what those guys do in their next preseason games this week.
Question 4
Long time and loyal customer. Every year you have one player ranked way higher than most of the other services. Sometimes your are right but more often you are not. This year it appears to be Mark Ingram.
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
If Ingram is the guy I have to live or die with, I like my odds. He’ll be a good solid runner, and I don’t think he’ll lose as many goal-line carries as in the past. What elevates him above a lot of other more-heralded running backs – Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott – is what he’ll do in the passing game. He’ll catch a ton of balls.
Question 5
In 2015 Demaryius Thomas was a real disappointment, supposedly due to Peyton Manning's weak throwing arm. This year Thomas' ADP reflects that lack of production. Can any of the QBs at Denver take advantage of his size and skill set this year?
DEAN ERICKSON (Vancouver, WA)
I don’t think so. That passing offense is headed south, I believe. Thomas seems to be in good shape (I see that he’s lost about 10 pounds) but I think he’ll be overdrafted.
Question 6
I have been using your information since the days when there were only magazines and have done very well. Great question and answer a couple weeks ago about RBs you had ranked very differently than their average ADP position. Could you answer the same question for WRs?
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
With wide receivers and ADP, there are a few that I have settled in on as being overrated. Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin, I’m quite certain, won’t be on any of my fantasy teams. I have been trying to figure out ways to avoid drafting DeAndre Hopkins. I don’t like his situation. And Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson could be the solution to that problem. They both looked very studly in their first games.
Question 7
Every year I send you a question around this time regarding average draft position. And you will answer that you don't pay attention to ADP – you just draft the next highest-ranked player on your board. But your remark about your latest Fanex draft brings me back to ADP. Donte Moncrief may be a top-ten player on your board, but if he's not on anyone else's board then there's no need to draft him in the third round when you could get him in the fifth thoughts?
Tavis Medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
There are a few of these guys. Certainly Moncrief, Mark Ingram and Carlos Hyde. With each guy, I have interest. With each, you can consider whether you can let them slip a round or two. If you think you can do it and pull it off, then have at it. But it’s easier said than done. In the Fanex Draft, it’s a PPR format and wide receivers were flying off the board. I took him at choice 3.11. I didn’t think he would be there at 5.11. There’s a sister league in Fanex (with 12 other owners using the same scoring format). Moncrief went at choice 4.04 in that one – 18 picks before choice 5.11.
Question 8
Chiefs 14? No respect! Herm would say "Come On Man"!
dean stewart (Seagoville, TX)
They looked pretty solid against Seattle. Tyreek Hill looks like he’ll be very good on kick returns. Marcus Peters certainly has a knack for jumping routes. I would say he’s the favorite to lead the league in interceptions.
Question 9
Long-time subscriber with two quick questions. First, you seem much, much higher on the Minnesota defense than most, and I don't remember seeing a rationale for that. Is it a special teams thing? Second, if you take your estimated numbers for Brady and divide by 12 (games he'll actually play), it looks like he has the highest per game expected output of any QB. So, wouldn't pairing him with a mid-round steal like Rivers (according to most ADP numbers) or someone make sense?
L.B. GRAHAM (Kingsville, MD)
I like the idea of pairing Brady with a guy like Rivers (or even one of the many other solid quarterbacks not quite as good). Brady should be very good one he returns. As for Minnesota, we’ve got them pretty high in all of the key categories. For kick returns, we’ve got them No. 1 in scoring potential. Cordarrelle Patterson is about the best on kickoffs, and Marcus Sherels is very good on punts. For defensive touchdowns (separate from special teams), we’ve got them behind only four teams. We’ve got them at 41 sacks, tying for 8th. Not much separation on fumbles, but we’ve got them 4th in that category. We’ve set their interception over-under at 16.5, which ties for 5th. For points allowed, we’ve got them trailing only Seattle and Denver. Solid unit overall, I think.
Question 10
I've seen the strength of schedule lists, but was wondering if you could rank all the teams’ defenses on how you think they will perform against the run & pass.
Tod Denison (Bakersfield, CA)
That’s in the stat projection file each week. If you look under “Your Stuff”, you’ll see a link for a download in Excel. It’s in there. Andy’s putting that together each week. Right now, it looks like this :
| RUSHING DEFENSE | |
|---|---|
| Team | Yards |
| NY Jets | 95 |
| Denver | 96 |
| Arizona | 98 |
| New England | 99 |
| Seattle | 100 |
| Carolina | 101 |
| Minnesota | 105 |
| Jacksonville | 105 |
| Oakland | 105 |
| Atlanta | 105 |
| Philadelphia | 106 |
| Buffalo | 107 |
| Baltimore | 107 |
| Kansas City | 108 |
| Cincinnati | 110 |
| Pittsburgh | 110 |
| Tampa Bay | 110 |
| Los Angeles | 111 |
| Houston | 112 |
| San Francisco | 115 |
| Indianapolis | 116 |
| Green Bay | 117 |
| NY Giants | 117 |
| Washington | 118 |
| Tennessee | 118 |
| Chicago | 119 |
| Detroit | 120 |
| Dallas | 120 |
| Miami | 125 |
| San Diego | 125 |
| New Orleans | 126 |
| Cleveland | 135 |
| PASSING DEFENSE | |
|---|---|
| Team | Yards |
| Denver | 225 |
| Seattle | 225 |
| Carolina | 235 |
| Minnesota | 235 |
| Arizona | 240 |
| Tennessee | 240 |
| Miami | 240 |
| NY Jets | 245 |
| Cincinnati | 245 |
| Los Angeles | 245 |
| Green Bay | 245 |
| San Diego | 245 |
| Jacksonville | 248 |
| Chicago | 250 |
| New England | 255 |
| Buffalo | 255 |
| Tampa Bay | 255 |
| Houston | 255 |
| Washington | 255 |
| Dallas | 255 |
| Oakland | 260 |
| Kansas City | 260 |
| Pittsburgh | 260 |
| Cleveland | 260 |
| Atlanta | 265 |
| Baltimore | 265 |
| NY Giants | 265 |
| Detroit | 265 |
| Philadelphia | 270 |
| San Francisco | 270 |
| Indianapolis | 270 |
| New Orleans | 280 |
Question 11
I am drafting 12th in a 12-team snake draft. This is the first year we are using the scoring system that Fan Duel uses. I have done the custom scoring on Fantasy Index and it puts Mark Ingram as the 2nd RB to take and 3rd overall. Other generic rankings on other websites which I know my fellow owners will be using have him around the 9th running back to take and about 26th overall. I usually like to go WR/WR with my first 2 picks but passing on the #2 running back at the 12th and 13th pick seems silly to me. Are we both too high on him? And do you think there is a chance he is still available when I get my 3rd round pick (36 overall)? And if history is any gauge, in our league 5-6 QBs get drafted in the first 3 rounds even with the diminished QB scoring system.
PAUL NICKAS (Jacksonville, FL)
I like Ingram, and that makes picking at the end of the round problematic. Leagues and formats vary, but I think he’s going in the mid-to-late second round in most 12-team leagues. So if you’re drafting 10th, 11th or 12th, you either have to swing a trade (difficult) or take him earlier than necessary. I don’t think hoping for him to be available in the third round is a realistic option.
Question 12
Another Dynasty league question about Tight Ends. Of the following, who will score the most touchdowns: Ertz, Barnidge, Jesse James (should Green retire)?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
If you’re looking at age and future years, Ertz makes the most sense. But if you’re looking at just touchdowns and just this year, it wouldn’t surprise me if James ended up being the best of that group.
Question 13
I'm in a 10 man PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, a D and a Kicker. I am the 6th pick and I was wondering what you recommend I take with my first pick, assuming that the top three WR are off the board. I'm juggling between taking either Hopkins, AJ Green or D. Johnson. If only one sits there, then my choice is simple. However, if a couple or all are sitting there, I'm not sure how I would rank them. Advice?
James Palmer (Chico, CA)
I would just go straight off the draft board. I think you’ll be looking at a running back. Most likely David Johnson, Mark Ingram or Todd Gurley. You may decide that you can get Ingram in the second round, but I can’t make that decision for you.