As I push around the numbers, Alex Smith looks oddly palatable to me as a fantasy option this week. I actually ended up putting him higher on my board than Ben Roethlisberger (even though Roethlisberger tends to be a much better quarterback).
With Roethlisberger, I’m swayed by the strong numbers suggesting he doesn’t tend to be as good on the road. He’s also thrown only 12 TD passes in his last 11 playoff games. He may have thrown 5 TDs against Kansas City early in the year, but that defense has allowed only 18 TD passes in its other 15 games – it’s good.
With Smith, there are some weapons around him, and he’s sneaky good as a runner, and that talent tends to show up more in the playoffs. In each of his five previous postseason starts, Smith ran for over 25 yards. Smith ran for 4 TDs in his last seven games in the regular season.
Smith has been good in playoff games before. There are six quarterbacks on the field this week with five-plus career playoff starts. Looking at just the five most recent games for each guy (30 games total), Smith comes in at No. 1 and No. 3 overall, with big games against the Colts and Saints. Two of his other games have been middle-of-the-pack efforts.
Many will pencil in Smith as the 7th-best quarterback this week, ahead of only Brock Osweiler, but I think there’s some potential for him to pick off a few of the other guys.
| LAST FIVE PLAYOFF STARTS FOR VETERAN QUARTERBACKS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Year | Opp | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts |
| A.Smith | 2013 | at Ind. | 378 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 40.6 |
| Brady | 2014 | Balt. | 367 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 36.4 |
| A.Smith | 2011 | N.O. | 299 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 35.8 |
| Rodgers | 2016 | NYG | 362 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 34.1 |
| Wilson | 2015 | at Car. | 366 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 33.5 |
| Ryan | 2012 | S.F. | 396 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 32.1 |
| Brady | 2014 | v. Sea. | 328 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 32.1 |
| Brady | 2015 | K.C. | 302 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 29.7 |
| Rodgers | 2014 | Dall. | 316 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 27.4 |
| Ryan | 2012 | Sea. | 250 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 25.1 |
| Brady | 2014 | Ind. | 226 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 24.6 |
| Wilson | 2014 | v. N.E. | 247 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 24.3 |
| Rodgers | 2015 | at Ariz. | 261 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 23.2 |
| Wilson | 2014 | G.B. | 209 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 23.0 |
| Ben R. | 2014 | Balt. | 334 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 22.3 |
| A.Smith | 2011 | NYG | 196 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 22.0 |
| Brady | 2015 | at Den. | 310 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 20.8 |
| A.Smith | 2015 | at N.E. | 246 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 20.7 |
| Ben R. | 2011 | at Den. | 289 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Wilson | 2016 | Det. | 224 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18.9 |
| Ben R. | 2016 | Mia. | 197 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 18.9 |
| Ryan | 2008 | at Ariz. | 199 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 18.6 |
| Rodgers | 2015 | at Wash. | 210 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18.4 |
| Ben R. | 2015 | at Den. | 339 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| A.Smith | 2015 | at Hou. | 190 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 16.2 |
| Ben R. | 2015 | at Cin. | 229 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15.5 |
| Rodgers | 2014 | at Sea. | 178 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 14.1 |
| Ryan | 2010 | G.B. | 186 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 |
| Wilson | 2015 | at Min. | 142 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 13.2 |
| Ryan | 2011 | at NYG | 199 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10.3 |
—Ian Allan