There are some really good tight ends coming out of college this year. Probably a first-rounder, and perhaps three in the first two rounds. The possibility of one of those guys being drafted by the Patriots (and their six picks in the first three rounds) is particularly enticing after Rob Gronkowski's retirement.
Iowa tight ends T.J. Hockenson (pictured) and Noah Fant look like the best of these incoming rookies; Irv Smith Jr. is also in the discussion. What are the odds, based on recent history, of these guys being impact players in Year 1?
I took a look at the rookie year numbers from all tight ends drafted in the first three rounds over the last 15 years. Some modest successes, including recently, but only two guys who knocked it out of the park.
Gronkowski and Evan Engram stand alone as players who finished in the top 10 at their position (1 point for every 10 yards and 6 for touchdowns) in their rookie seasons. Two others (Hunter Henry and Heath Miller) just missed. In the table, top-10 rookie tight ends are shown in bold, top 20 in italics.
| ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS, 1ST THREE ROUNDS (2005-PRESENT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | No | Yds | TD | FF Rk |
| 2019 | ? | T.J. Hockenson | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | ? | Irv Smith Jr. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | ? | Noah Fant | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | 3 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 34 | 552 | 3 | 16th |
| 2018 | 2 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 33 | 334 | 4 | 20th |
| 2018 | 3 | Jordan Akins, Hou. | 17 | 225 | 0 | 56th |
| 2018 | 1 | Hayden Hurst, Balt. | 13 | 163 | 1 | 57th |
| 2018 | 2 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 22 | 202 | 0 | 63rd |
| 2017 | 1 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 26 | 432 | 6 | 16th |
| 2017 | 1 | David Njoku, Clev. | 32 | 386 | 4 | 22nd |
| 2017 | 2 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 16 | 244 | 2 | 37th |
| 2017 | 2 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 12 | 127 | 3 | 44th |
| 2017 | 3 | Jonnu Smith, Tenn. | 18 | 157 | 2 | 47th |
| 2017 | 1 | Evan Engram, NYG | 64 | 722 | 6 | 5th |
| 2016 | 2 | Hunter Henry , S.D. | 36 | 478 | 8 | 11th |
| 2016 | 3 | Austin Hooper , Atl. | 19 | 271 | 3 | 35th |
| 2016 | 3 | Nick Vannett , Sea. | 3 | 32 | 0 | 93rd |
| 2015 | 3 | Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2015 | 3 | Clive Walford, Oak. | 28 | 329 | 3 | 30th |
| 2015 | 2 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 32 | 268 | 1 | 43rd |
| 2015 | 3 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 11 | 129 | 1 | 56th |
| 2014 | 2 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 38 | 345 | 2 | 29th |
| 2014 | 3 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 20 | 225 | 2 | 41st |
| 2014 | 2 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 21 | 221 | 2 | 42nd |
| 2014 | 1 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 25 | 248 | 1 | 45th |
| 2014 | 3 | Crockett Gillmore, Balt. | 10 | 121 | 1 | 57th |
| 2014 | 3 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 4 | 28 | 1 | 76th |
| 2014 | 2 | Troy Niklas, Ariz. | 3 | 38 | 0 | 94th |
| 2013 | 3 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2013 | 2 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36 | 469 | 4 | 20th |
| 2013 | 3 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 45 | 499 | 3 | 23rd |
| 2013 | 1 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39 | 445 | 2 | 29th |
| 2013 | 2 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 9 | 134 | 2 | 50th |
| 2013 | 2 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 8 | 119 | 0 | 63rd |
| 2012 | 3 | Michael Egnew, Mia. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2012 | 3 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 45 | 521 | 3 | 23rd |
| 2012 | 2 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 26 | 281 | 2 | 38th |
| 2011 | 2 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 26 | 249 | 3 | 36th |
| 2011 | 2 | Lance Kendricks, St.L. | 28 | 352 | 0 | 38th |
| 2011 | 3 | Rob Housler, Ariz. | 12 | 133 | 0 | 57th |
| 2010 | 3 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 47 | 556 | 3 | 20th |
| 2010 | 1 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 52 | 471 | 4 | 21st |
| 2010 | 3 | Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 31 | 356 | 5 | 23rd |
| 2010 | 3 | Ed Dickson, Balt. | 11 | 152 | 1 | 51st |
| 2010 | 2 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 546 | 10 | 5th |
| 2009 | 3 | Chase Coffman, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2009 | 2 | Richard Quinn, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2009 | 1 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 30 | 346 | 2 | 25th |
| 2009 | 3 | Jared Cook, Tenn. | 9 | 74 | 0 | 72nd |
| 2009 | 3 | Travis Beckum, NYG | 8 | 55 | 0 | 80th |
| 2008 | 2 | John Carlson, Sea. | 55 | 627 | 5 | 11th |
| 2008 | 1 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 14th |
| 2008 | 2 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 20 | 283 | 4 | 24th |
| 2008 | 3 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 6 | 74 | 1 | 56th |
| 2008 | 3 | Brad Cottam, K.C. | 7 | 63 | 0 | 72nd |
| 2008 | 2 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 3 | 27 | 0 | 82nd |
| 2008 | 3 | Craig Stevens, Tenn. | 1 | 9 | 0 | 95th |
| 2007 | 2 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 44 | 444 | 3 | 16th |
| 2007 | 1 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 39 | 391 | 2 | 21st |
| 2007 | 3 | Matt Spaeth, Pitt. | 5 | 34 | 3 | 47th |
| 2006 | 2 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 18 | 286 | 4 | 20th |
| 2006 | 1 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 20 | 265 | 3 | 23rd |
| 2006 | 2 | Joe Klopfenstein, St.L. | 20 | 226 | 1 | 37th |
| 2006 | 1 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 13 | 126 | 1 | 45th |
| 2006 | 2 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 14 | 126 | 0 | 58th |
| 2005 | 3 | Kevin Everett, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| 2005 | 1 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 39 | 459 | 6 | 11th |
| 2005 | 3 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 41 | 367 | 2 | 21st |
Rookie year numbers aren't everything, obviously. Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis are among the players who weren't top-20 tight ends as rookies but went on to have very nice careers. And there will be players drafted outside the first three rounds (like fifth-rounder George Kittle) who emerge as fantasy difference-makers.
In general, though, best to temper rookie expectations for Hockenson and company, no matter where they're drafted, or by whom. Guys like Gronkowski are the exception.
--Andy Richardson